Nigel Farage has blamed the collapse of the Labour vote to Plaid Cymru as the reason behind Reform UK’s by-election defeat in Caerphilly, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party losing one of its traditional seats in Wales.
Taking to social media, he added: “The Senedd elections next year are a two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.”
The former Labour MP for Caerphilly, who has since joined Plaid Cymru, said the by-election result is "devastating" for Starmer’s party and blamed financial decisions such as means testing the winter fuel payment as a reason for their decline in popularity.
Ron Davies said: "It was a devastating result for Labour and a number of reasons for that. I think certainly the Labour Party nationally was very, very unpopular on the street, from door to door, canvassing.”
Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle, a long-standing councillor in the Penyrheol ward and leader of the group on Caerphilly Council, won the seat with 47.38 per cent of the vote – a swing of almost 27 per cent from Labour.
In second place was Reform’s Llŷr Powell on 35.9 per cent, while Welsh Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe came third with just 11 per cent – in a humiliating defeat for the party.
Labour humiliation as Plaid Cymru win Welsh parliament by-election in former stronghold: latest
‘I don’t know anyone who is voting Labour’: How Reform is turning a red heartland light blue
Why is a by-election for the Welsh Senedd so important for the UK?
Why the fall of this Labour political fortress could spell disaster for Starmer
Key Points
- Farage says Senedd elections are a 'two-horse race' between Reform and Plaid Cymru
- Labour humiliation as Plaid Cymru win Welsh parliament by-election in former stronghold
- The people of Caerphilly have chosen 'hope over division', says Plaid Cymru leader
- Leading pollster says result shows Labour are 'in severe trouble'
- 'The world is watching Wales,' says Plaid Cymru's victorious candidate
The three things Labour got wrong in Caerphilly - and how to fix them
15:01 , Holly EvansThe result of the Senedd by-election in Caerphillywas a triumph for Plaid Cymru, pointing towards the nationalists taking over the government of Wales for the first time at next year’s elections.
And it was a disappointment for Nigel Farage. His party has a lot of leftover balloons that were ready for the celebration of a Reform victory – the party increased its vote hugely but still fell some way short.
The result looks bad for Labour, and indeed the party did even worse than the only opinion poll in the constituency suggested. The Survation poll put Labour on 12 per cent of the vote, but on the day, Richard Tunnicliffe, the Labour candidate, won 11 per cent.
Yet there may be some hope for Keir Starmer if his party can learn the right three lessons.
Read the full analysis from John Rentoul here:
The three things Labour got wrong in Caerphilly – and how to fix them
First minister Eluned Morgan says Starmer 'realises responsibility to help out in Wales'
14:37 , Holly EvansLabour's First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, said that she has spoken to Sir Keir Starmer on Friday morning and that he understands that “he also has a responsibility to help us out in Wales”.
She admitted that this was a "bad result for Labour" and that there are "serious lessons for us to learn here at all levels of government".
However, she insisted that she would not be resigning, adding: "I've got too much work to do."
What does Plaid Cymru stand for?
14:05 , Holly EvansPlaid Cymru fought off a challenge from Reform UK to win the Caerphilly by-election on Friday, securing more than 45 per cent of the vote, with Nigel Farage’s party in second and Labour - who have led the Welsh parliament since its inception - coming third.
The result comes ahead of crucial elections to the Senedd in 2026, with Labour trailing in the polls.
What have Plaid said about the election result, and what could happen next?
Read the full analysis here:
'Labour is now dead' says Caerphilly by-election winning candidate
13:40 , Holly EvansAsked what his victory means for Plaid Cymru and politics in Wales, Caerphilly MS Lindsay Whittle said: "Well, it certainly signifies change - change to a massive degree.
"The Labour Party now is dead. And I think it's time for a new Wales, under new leadership, with new vision, new ideas.
"And that's exactly what we're offering with our leader Rhun ap Iorwerth who will make an excellent first minister next May.
"And first minister, he will be."
John Curtice says Labour in ‘severe trouble’ in Wales after humiliating by-election defeat
13:15 , Holly EvansLabour is in “severe trouble” in Wales, polling expert Sir John Curtice has warned, after the party suffered a brutal defeat in a by-election in its heartlands.
Plaid Cymru snatched the traditionally Labour seat of Caerphilly away from Sir Keir Starmer’s party despite a surge in the Reform UK vote overnight on Friday.
The result, which saw Labour come third, marks the first time the party has lost a vote in the former mining town in more than a century.
Read the full article here:
John Curtice: Labour in severe trouble in Wales after humiliating by-election defeat
Reform UK say Labour is 'finished' in Wales
12:51 , Holly EvansA Reform UK Wales spokesman said: “The Labour Party is finished in Wales, and the Conservative Party has gone the way of the dodo.
“This is a historic realignment in Welsh politics.
“Next year, the choice before the Welsh people will be between open borders madness with Plaid Cymru, or common sense with Reform.
“We are fighting to win the next election, to enter Welsh Government, and to ensure that our left-behind communities will be left behind no longer.”
Downing Street says they understand people are 'disappointed' with pace of change
12:39 , Holly EvansThe Government understands people are “disappointed” with the pace of change, and is determined to go “further and faster” in delivery, Downing Street said after Labour’s by-election loss in the Welsh Parliament.
The Prime Minister’s press secretary said: “By-elections are always difficult for incumbent governments.
“This one is no different, but we are determined to show the people of Caerphilly and working people across Wales the change the UK Government is delivering hand in hand with the Labour government in Wales.
“(We are) determined to go further and faster, understand people are disappointed with the pace of change, and that is what the Government is relentlessly focused on delivering for working people in Wales and across the UK.”
Farage says Senedd elections are a 'two-horse race' between Reform and Plaid Cymru
12:16 , Holly EvansNigel Farage has said the the Senedd elections in May wil lbe a “two-horse race” between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.
In a post on social media, he said that his party had thought that they would receive enough votes to win the by-election, but the “total collapse” of the Labour vote to Plaid meant that Lindsey Whittle was the victorious candidate.
At the start of polling day, I thought that we would get 12,000 votes and we did. I thought that number would be enough, but it wasn’t.
— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) October 24, 2025
The total collapse of the Labour vote to Plaid was to a party that people know well and to a popular local politician.
The Senedd elections…
The Reform bubble has not burst – but we now know how to stop Farage
11:51 , Holly EvansWell, you can’t say Reform UK didn’t do everything they could to win the Caerphilly by-election. And they were, as party chair David Bull admits, disappointed by the result.
By the way, Reform also failed to win its usual clutch of local council elections around England.
From the Fenlands to Torridge to Birmingham, the Farageistes were, for a change, pinned back. One might be tempted to wonder if Reform is running out of momentum, and has – dread phrase – “peaked too early”. That temptation is also premature.
“Reform will be disappointed at coming second with 36 per cent,” said the pollster John Curtice, “but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.”
Read the full analysis from Sean O’Grady here:
The Reform bubble has not burst – but we now know how to stop Farage
Former leader of Welsh Tories says Caerphilly must be 'wake up call for unionists'
11:28 , Millie CookeFormer Welsh Tory leader Andrew RT Davies said the results of the Caerphilly by-election "must be a wake up call" for unionists.
“Separatism is corrosive, with the aim breaking apart our nation and no regard to its consequences on the living standards of the people of Wales", he said.
“Plaid have escaped the scrutiny subjected to other parties for too long, portraying themselves as a harmless protest vote while they pursue their extreme ideology.
“The separatists’ victory in Caerphilly must be a wake-up call and the onus is on those of us who believe in the Union to show the people of Wales the real Plaid.”
Plaid Cymru leader says public are 'disillusioned' with Starmer's government
11:14 , Holly EvansRhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said: “I think Keir Starmer came in with a whimper.
“I predicted at the time that people would become disillusioned with his Government very soon. In fact, I said they were becoming disillusioned with it before he even formed it.
“And then he goes and cuts the winter fuel payment, and then he goes and refuses to lift the two-child benefit cap, and then he refuses to engage on issues that are important to us in Wales.
“On devolving the Crown Estate on a fair funding model, on giving us what’s owed because of HS2, and then he goes and lets down Port Talbot.
“And all the time Welsh Labour do nothing to stand up for the people of Wales.
“It’s a catalogue of reasons why people now have recognised that it’s time for Labour to go, and it’s Plaid Cymru now that’s ready to replace them as a government of Wales.”
By-election win evidence voters turning to Plaid, party leader says
11:07 , Tom BarnesRhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said the by-election in result in Caerphilly was “real evidence” that people are turning to the party more than ever before.
He said: “It’s clear from the results here in Caerphilly that the momentum is with Plaid Cymru now, it hasn’t come from thin air.
“We had our best-ever general election results last year, we’ve seen Plaid Cymru topping the polls for some time now.
“What we have now is that real evidence through the ballot box of people putting their faith in Plaid Cymru in ways that they’ve never done before, and that all points to people embracing the chance of having a Plaid Cymru-led government for the first time.”
Reform could need to up 'soft' voters in face of tactical voting, pollster suggests
10:55 , Caitlin DohertyThe result in the Caerphilly puts a "greater premium" for Reform on building its "soft" voter base, given tactical voting, a pollster has suggested.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common said that "voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly".
In a thread on X, He described Labour as the party who were "squeezed" in this contest, but on others where Sir Keir Starmer is the main contender against Reform, they could get voters to back them tactically.
The pollster added: "For Reform this places a greater premium on growing their support pool and reaching more soft Reform voters, turning out a highly motivated base clearly works in fragmented local council elections but isn’t alone enough in the face of tactical voting."
Former Welsh secretary blames Starmer government for 'devastating' result in Caerphilly
10:44 , Millie CookeRon Davies, a former Labour secretary of state to Wales, said the Caerphilly by-election result is "devastating" and blamed the party's decision to means test winter fuel for the result, saying he doesn't think Labour "can recover from that."
Speaking to Times Radio, the former Labour MP for Caerphilly, who has since joined Plaid Cymru, said: "It was a devastating result for Labour and a number of reasons for that. I think certainly the Labour Party nationally was very, very unpopular on the street, from door to door, canvassing.
"There was no interest whatsoever in supporting Labour. And I think the process had been going on really from the ill-fated financial decisions taken just after the general election.
“And I don't think Labour has recovered from that. I don't know if they can recover from that, the decision to means test winter fuel, to claw back money from pensioners."
He added: "That's what started the process. It started the rot. And following from that, Keir Starmer and the Labour government obviously has had some pretty difficult decisions and they've made a hash of things. And there's been no recovery from that."
'The world is watching Wales,' says Plaid Cymru's victorious candidate
10:14 , Holly EvansSpeaking out Caerphilly Castle, Lindsay Whittle, the victorious Plaid Cymru candidate in Caerphilly, vowed to “work like a Trojan” for the people of his constituency as he thanked his supporters.
The 72-year-old, who has previously stood 13 times for the seat, said: "It seems just like yesterday, as a 15-year-old schoolboy, I was standing with the crowds as Phil Williams tried to put the Phil in Caerphilly and tried to create history.
"Well, yesterday the people of Caerphilly created their own history and we put Caerphilly on the map firmly.
"I have received messages of goodwill, not only from all corners of Wales, but from Scotland, can you believe France? Can you believe Australia? Spain and Canada?
"That is a mark of how important yesterday was to Wales and the world, because now I believe the world is watching Wales, watching an emerging nation start to control our lives again.
"What was the famous phrase that no one likes me using, especially our comms people? They've all gone pale, but it's grab your brains by the throat and take control of your lives again. And that's the message.
"And I will work like a Trojan for every single man, woman and child in this constituency.
"And a huge honour, it is for me, I am genuinely humbled.
“I'm a council house boy from the council estate there and I'm proud to call this home. Diolch yn fawr."
Plaid Cymru victory comes in the run-up to Welsh government Budget vote
10:07 , Holly EvansLabour has led the Welsh Parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999.
But in recent polling, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK were forecast to be the two biggest parties in Wales next year.
The victory for Plaid Cymru comes in the run-up to a vote on the Welsh Government budget, which has been a source of anxiety for the Labour administration.
When passing its last budget in March, the Government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through by a tight margin.
While Labour is the largest party, it does not have a majority, and the next budget vote will be even more difficult after losing the Caerphilly seat.
Plaid Cymru leader says result is the 'start of a reset of Welsh politics'
09:33 , Holly EvansRhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, told Sky News that the Caerphilly by-election is the “start of a reset of politics in Wales".
The goal for Plaid Cymru is to take over the Senedd for the first time in May next year, he said.
"I want to see that through now. I've made it clear, said it in my conference speech a couple of weeks ago, we have to replace Labour,” he said.
"And it's not just for its own sake, it's so we get better outcomes for Wales. That's what Plaid Cymru's always about."
By-election result is a 'message' to Labour, warns Tory deputy chairman
09:16 , Holly EvansConservative Party deputy chairman Matt Vickers said the Government is “disastrous” and the by-election result is people’s way of sending a message to Labour.
“People often vote to send a message in a by-election,” he told Sky News.
“And people have told Labour that they’re not happy with them. They’ve sent that message using the by-election,” he added.
Mr Vickers said the Conservatives had a “really tough” election last year and are “learning the lessons that the British people have given us”.
Green leader says his party can replace Labour
09:06 , Holly EvansWith the Caerphilly by-election result going to Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru and suggesting that left leaning voters are seeking alternative parties to Labour, Green leader Zack Polanski has hailed an opportunity for his party.
Mr Polanski has been buoyed by an overnight poll from Techne UK confirming a surge in support for his party up three to 12 and taking votes from Labour which is down to 19 per cent.
He believes the Greens can capitalise on the chaos in Keir Starmer’s Labour across the UK.
He told The Independent: “When I said we intended to replace Labour, I meant it.
“The Green Party have doubled our entire membership in six weeks and every day we are catching up to Labour in the polls. If people want a party that will lower their bills and tax billionaires - then they can join the Green Party.”
Labour MP rejects suggestion Caerphilly result is a 'defeat for Starmerism'
08:56 , Holly EvansCabinet Office minister and Torfaen MP Nick Thomas-Symonds has said he does not accept criticism that Labour has put voters off and left itself vulnerable from the left by using the language of Reform UK.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I don’t accept that. It’s about tackling the underlying issues that people raised to you on the doorstep.
“And anyway, the Prime Minister’s party conference speech openly took on Reform, and it’s about listening to what people say.
“And with regard to the issue of the small boats crossing the English Channel and securing our borders, that is because people are saying to us, very clearly, it’s a huge priority for them that we have secure borders.”
He later added: “But that isn’t to say we haven’t called out Reform time and time again.”
He also rejected a suggestion that the result in Caerphilly was a “defeat for Starmerism”.
Caerphilly result shows Labour is no longer viewed as progressive, says left wing pressure group
08:40 , Millie CookeThe brutal result for Labour in the Caerphilly by-election shows that voters "no longer view Labour as progressive".
Neal Lawson, Director of Compass, said: "The voters of Caerphilly have shown two things: they will vote tactically for a progressive alternative to Reform, but they no longer view Labour as progressive.
“Labour needs a massive reset at every level before the elections next May, to become both progressive and pluralist, or they will be wiped out everywhere."
Starmer is '100% concerned' about Wales as Labour vow to 'redouble' its efforts
08:36 , Holly EvansLabour will “redouble” its efforts in Wales ahead of May’s Senedd elections after Plaid Cymru took a long-held seat in the Caerphilly by-election, a minister has said.
Cabinet Office minister and Torfaen MP Nick Thomas-Symonds told LBC that when he was knocking on doors in Caerphilly, “what’s been coming through to me very strongly is a frustration with the pace of change”.
He added: “People want us to go faster with the pace of change.
“We’ve had thousands of conversations on the doorstep. We’ve listened. We treat the result with humility. We will then act upon that, redouble our efforts in the six months before the Senedd election.”
Labour must demonstrate “in word and in deed” that it is the best option for voters in Wales, he said.
He said Sir Keir Starmer had not visited the area because the campaign was led by Welsh Labour.
Mr Thomas-Symonds said he had not yet spoken to Sir Keir after the result was announced, but said: “The Prime Minister is 100 per cent concerned about Wales”.
Watch: Labour MP reacts to humiliating Wales by-election defeat
08:33 , Holly EvansLabour and Eluned Morgan have a 'very tough fight' ahead of May elections
08:26 , Holly EvansA minister said Labour has a “very tough fight” on its hands in the Senedd elections next May after its defeat by Plaid Cymru at the Caerphilly by-election
“I certainly accept, and the First Minister – Eluned Morgan – has accepted, that we have a very tough fight on our hands for next May,” Cabinet Office minister and Torfaen MP Nick Thomas-Symonds told Times Radio.
He said Labour’s loss was “disappointing” and pointed to a “fractured political landscape” in the UK.
“We will listen to the thousands of conversations that we had in Caerphilly about speeding up the pace of change.”
Reform chairman 'incredibly upbeat' after Caerphilly by-election result
08:16 , Tara CobhamReform chairman David Bull said he was “incredibly upbeat” and “very bullish” following the result of the Caerphilly by-election.
Asked for his view of the election result as a whole, he told BBC Breakfast: “In some ways disappointing for us, but actually it’s an amazing result on another hand, because actually we’re only four years old as a party.
“At the last election, we got 1.7% and this morning we got 36%. That’s a meteoric rise for us, and I think actually pretty unprecedented in modern political history.”
Dr Bull referred to the “decimation” of Labour and said the Conservatives were “wiped off that electoral map pretty much completely”.
Analysis: More bad polling news for Starmer with Green surge
07:55 , Tara CobhamThe Independent’s political editor David Maddox writes:
As Labour reels from the Caerphilly by-election result, a poll by Techne UK has dropped revealing that the Green Party surge is hurting Labour.
Techne’s first poll for a month shows the Greens up three points to 12 per cent while Labour has fallen to 19 per cent, below 20 per cent for the first time in Techne’s polling.
The poll is the first one carried out since the Greens elected Zack Polanski as their leader.
Reform is on 29 per cent, the Tories 18 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats 16 per cent.
Meanwhile, less than one in five (19 per cent) express any level of confidence in the government.
Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo described the Green surge as “remarkable”.
She added: “There can be no doubt whatsoever that the UK now reflects a truly multi-party democracy and none of the big three parties can really rest on their laurels.”
Analysis: Humiliation for Starmer
07:53 , Tara CobhamThe Independent’s whitehall editor Kate Devlin writes:
Make no bones about it, this result is a disaster for Labour.
The Labour vote collapsed in a traditional heartland, and not one but two opposition parties, Plaid Cymru and Nigel Farage’s Reform surged.
Britain’s leading pollster Sir John Curtice has already said the result shows Labour could also come third in the wider Welsh elections next year.
The party is also expected to lose the Scottish Parliament elections at the same time.
The Caerphilly result is a huge blow to the PM, as he prepares for what could be the defining moment of his time in office, next month’s Budget.
Plaid supporters joke Farage 'already on M4 home' before results announced amid Reform's defeat
07:50 , Tara CobhamPlaid Cymru supporters were reportedly joking that Nigel Farage was already “halfway down the M4” making his way back to London before the results in the Caerphilly by-election were even announced, as Reform UK looked headed for defeat.
As the results were declared in a race that Reform was expected to win, the party’s leader was nowhere to be seen, despite being a very visible presence during the campaign.
The joke was therefore born among Plaid supporters, as they celebrated their surprising victory.
Reform candidate says his party is the only one surging in Wales
07:33 , Tara CobhamReform candidate Llyr Powell has argued that Reform UK was the one party surging in Caerphilly and he thought it would form a government in Wales in 2026.
"I think, next May, we're going to form a Reform government, so I'm looking forward to that,” he said.
"I think what we're seeing, we've got more people turning out to vote now when they've got a party they believe in, and that's what Reform is offering.”
"What my goal in the next coming weeks is going to be is to register more people to vote, to encourage more people to use their democratic right, and we will see different results.
"Moving forward, you can see Labour in decline, and there's one party that's surging here, and you can see from tonight's result that's Reform UK."
The people of Caerphilly have chosen 'hope over division', says Plaid Cymru leader
07:31 , Tara CobhamThe Independent’s political correspondent Millie Cooke reports:
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the result shows the people of Caerphilly have chosen “hope over division, and progress over the tired status quo”.
"This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative. We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone”, he said.
Meanwhile, Mr Whittle said: "Tonight's result shows what's possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.
"We've beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way - now Wales must follow."
Leading pollster says result shows Labour are 'in severe trouble'
07:30 , Tara CobhamThe Independent’s political correspondent Millie Cooke reports:
The result will embolden Plaid in its efforts to enter government in Wales next year, and is a bitter blow for Labour, which had held the seat since the Senedd was first established.
Britain’s leading polling expert Sir John Curtice said the result showed “Labour are in severe trouble in Wales”.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said the “the firm clear answer from Caerphilly is yes” to the question of whether Labour could come third in the Welsh elections next year.
Watch: Plaid Cymru win Caerphilly Welsh Government by-election holding off Reform UK
07:30 , Tara CobhamDisappointing result for Reform UK as public vote to keep party out
07:29 , Tara CobhamThe Independent’s political correspondent Millie Cooke reports:
The result will be seen as a disappointment for Reform UK, which was polling in front and had hoped to win its first seat at the ballot box, with Nigel Farage pledging to “throw everything” at the campaign.
While the party’s vote share increased significantly after winning just 495 votes four years ago, it is thought that tactical voting to keep Reform out of office took place, dampening the party’s success in the constituency on Friday.
However, the final result put Reform well ahead of Labour and has bolstered hopes the party could oust Sir Keir’s party at the next election.
Labour humiliation as Plaid Cymru win Welsh parliament by-election in former stronghold
07:27 , Tara CobhamPlaid Cymru have won a key seat in the Senedd, snatching the traditionally Labour seat of Caerphilly away from Sir Keir Starmer’s party amid a surge in the Reform UK vote.
The result, which saw Labour come third, marks the first time the party has lost a vote in the former mining town in over a century.
Lindsay Whittle, a long-standing councillor in the Penyrheol ward and leader of the group on Caerphilly Council, won the seat with 47.38 per cent of the vote - a swing of almost 27 per cent from Labour.
In second place was Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell on 35.9 per cent, while Welsh Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe came third with just 11 per cent – in a humiliating defeat for the party.
