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Bangkok Post
Bangkok Post
Comment

Keeping the bombs at bay

Trump-Kim Summit 2.0 began in a climate of optimism, with some people saying a formal end to the Korean War and complete denuclearisation of the North was in sight, but it was not to be. Disappointment quickly turned to alarm when two other nuclear-armed states -- India and Pakistan -- started sparring.

The no-deal ending in Hanoi vindicates critics who said the vague promises made at the first Trump-Kim meeting in Singapore contained few details and no timeline. By walking away in Hanoi, US President Donald Trump believes he can play hardball with the Supreme Leader of North Korea. So far we have not heard anything directly from Kim Jong-un, but his foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, says Pyongyang's position will not change even if Washington wants to talk some more.

Mr Trump claims the North demanded a complete lifting of sanctions but Mr Ri insists Pyongyang only asked for partial lifting. Only Mr Trump and Mr Kim truly know what transpired in the meeting room, but Mr Trump is clearly treating this negotiation like any other he has held since coming to power. If he does not believe it will deliver maximum benefits for the US, he will walk away.

"Sometimes you have to walk and this was one of those times," he said.

I agree that any good negotiator should walk away if the deal on offer is against your interests and your opposition knows it. But Mr Trump should have gone to the table better prepared -- a tall order for a man who thinks a one-page briefing paper is too long. Knowing exactly what you want and the best alternatives before you embark on any deal-making process is crucial.

There is also an uncertainly about exactly what Pyongyang and Washington mean by denuclearisation. The latter says the North must "unilaterally" give up all of its nuclear weapons and facilities before any sanctions can be lifted. But Pyongyang sees that as unfair.

Mr Ri said his country had made "realistic" proposals including the complete decommissioning of the key Yongbyon nuclear research and production facility, for a partial lifting of sanctions "that hamper the civilian economy and the livelihood of our people".

He described the proposal as "the biggest denuclearisation measure we could take at the present stage" given the "current level of confidence" between the two countries.

But it is starting to appear as if North Korea is holding its citizens hostage while Mr Trump is convinced that sanctions are working. The truth is, they are hurting the majority of North Koreans who lack the connections of those in the charmed circle of the Kim family. The country's GDP per capita, estimated at US$1,700, is among the lowest in the world.

I certainly hope both sides can get back to the negotiating table, but Mr Ri has declared that "our proposals will never change", so the world is back in wait-and-see mode.

In any case, global attention is now occupied by the drama taking place in disputed Kashmir. India and Pakistan are about evenly matched when it comes to their nuclear arsenals, which could wipe out all of Asia with radioactive fallout. A scary thought indeed.

The good news is that Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan does not appear to want to go to war; his release of an Indian pilot shot down over Kashmir last week seems to be proof of this. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on the other hand, has been criticised for continuing with his re-election campaign, in which stoking nationalist bloodlust is a good vote-getter. He just has to be careful that he's not too obvious about it.

The confrontation began with a terrorist attack on Indian troops at the border in which at least 40 people were killed. That was followed by the first aerial attacks across the Line of Control dividing Indian and Pakistani territory since 1971.

With India telling the world it wants want peace while its PM travels around looking for votes, and Pakistan appearing to be backing down, maybe there is still hope for things to calm down.

Meanwhile, we await the next attempt by Mr Trump to get Mr Kim back to the table, as ending the Korean War is a legacy both men would like to have. No matter what, the rest of the world is hoping that we can still keep this nuclear Pandora's Box firmly closed.

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