What’s happening on the high street? Last week’s retail survey by the CBI painted a grim picture, showing sales falling at their fastest since the 2009 recession. The CBI’s survey is small but it fed into broader concerns about consumers’ willingness to keep spending as wages are squeezed and Brexit uncertainty looms.
We may get some more clarity when Next updates the City on Wednesday. The fashion retailer is regarded as a barometer of retail activity and its reporting is commendably clear. Chief executive Simon Wolfson was fairly upbeat in mid-September when Next published first-half results. Things looked better than at the start of the year and Next’s autumn range was going down well with shoppers.
But conditions are, as Next’s rival Debenhams said last week, volatile. Could trading have dipped sharply in seven weeks – and if so how much of any decline is due to the weather? October has been unusually warm, which isn’t good news for sales of jumpers and coats. Next sells clothes, furniture and homewares, but not food.
Morrisons, which reports on trading the following day, will provide some insight into how the grocery sector is doing ahead of the crucial Christmas trading period. The supermarket chain is on the up, registering the strongest growth of the big four food retailers in a recent survey.
Bailey up for a grilling
Andrew Bailey probably hasn’t had the most relaxing weekend. If he’s sensible, the Financial Conduct Authority chief executive will have been mugging up before questions at the Treasury committee on Tuesday. He could be in for a rough ride.
Last Monday, the FCA reluctantly published a summary of a report into how Royal Bank of Scotland treated its small business customers. It was more critical of RBS than was suggested by a list of bullet points released by the FCA a year ago. The Treasury committee has hired a barrister to check for consistency between last week’s summary and the full report. He handed over his findings last week. The FCA also revealed it was considering taking action against RBS. The MPs will want more detail, which Bailey may be unwilling to give.
Then there is the matter of Saudi Aramco’s mooted flotation in London. This month, Bailey admitted he met officials from Saudi’s state oil company before publishing plans to soften listing rules to attract the giant £1.5 trillion listing. Bailey would also be wise to bring figures about diversity in the upper ranks of the FCA. The MPs want fewer white men at the top of finance.
Stop crude focus on oil profits
At the start of last year, Britain’s big oil companies, Shell and BP, appeared to be in crisis. A slump in the price of Brent crude – from more than $110 a barrel in 2014 to less than $30 in January 2016 – sent profits tumbling and appeared to threaten dividends. After painful cost cuts and a partial recovery in the oil price to near $60, the pressure has eased and both are expected to report solid first-half results this week.
BP goes first, on Tuesday, with Shell, the stronger of the two, on Thursday. The commotion over the oil slump diverted some attention from their commitments to low-carbon energy. To much fanfare, both companies’ boards supported resolutions at their 2015 annual meetings that required clearer reporting of emissions, business risks and efforts to develop green energy sources.
But last week, ShareAction, which campaigned for the resolutions, criticised BP and Shell for inaction. Their capital spending on low-carbon energy sources (1.3% at BP and 3% by 2020 for Shell) was unconvincing, ShareAction argued. Cannily, the group couched its criticism in terms of the threat to pensions if BP and Shell find themselves extinct. With the day-to-day crisis averted maybe it’s time to refocus on the long term.
