The United States may be on track for its sharpest one-year decline in murder rates. But how and why that decline is happening has become almost as contested as the numbers themselves.
A senior crime data analyst says killings fell by nearly a fifth through most of 2025, marking a historic shift after years of pandemic-era violence. The White House Press Secretary reacted on X by publicly crediting US President Donald Trump's law-and-order agenda, prompting strong reactions online.
The Trump Effect:
— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) December 27, 2025
"US Murder Rates Set for Biggest Yearly Drop Ever"https://t.co/UXkcpHTi4f
Supporters describe the figures as proof that tougher enforcement works. Critics counter that the trend began years earlier and accuse the administration of claiming credit prematurely.
Is Murder Rate Really Declining in the US?
According to Newsweek, the claim originates from Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, who analysed figures from the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), a database drawing monthly crime data from hundreds of US police departments.
According to Asher, murders were down by roughly 19.8% from January to October 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.
In raw terms, the RTCI sample of 570 agencies recorded 5,912 murders through October 2025, but 7,369 murders over the same period in 2024.
Asher explained that a drop of around 20% would exceed all previous single-year declines, including the post-pandemic fall recorded in 2024.
Why the White House is calling it the 'Trump Effect'
White House officials and allies moved quickly to frame the figures as evidence that President Trump's policies are driving the change.
FBI Director Kash Patel wrote that murders were 'on pace for [the] largest one-year drop on record', adding that it was 'not an accident' and crediting policies that allow 'good cops [to] be cops'.
🚨 U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record - not an accident. @realDonaldTrump’s policy letting good cops be cops WORKS. Lives being saved every single day under this administration with great local partners across the country. And more work to do. pic.twitter.com/gA7p3Vy9Hu
— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) December 24, 2025
The Department of Homeland Security echoed that message, arguing that removing violent offenders lowers murder rates, while Elon Musk summarised the view bluntly: 'Removing murderers from the streets works wonders'.
Removing murderers from the streets works wonders https://t.co/0AMk3xozg0
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 24, 2025
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt amplified the framing by calling the trend the 'Trump Effect', a phrase that has commenters on X pushing back on the claim.
Supporters: 'Law and order is back'
Many commenters accepted the administration's explanation and framed the decline as proof that stricter enforcement saves lives.
One user wrote, 'The historic drop in murders isn't accidental—it's the direct result of restoring law and order through aggressive enforcement'.
Another added by crediting the crackdown on illegal immigrants. 'Enforce the border, back the police, lock up violent criminals... Murder drops when consequences return. That is the Trump Effect.'
Others expressed relief at Trump's 'law and order' policies, saying 'Thank you, Trump' under Leavitt's post.
Murder Rate Has Been Declining For Years
A second group questioned whether the administration deserved any credit at all.
One commenter argued that the claim ignored earlier context, writing, 'Crime rates have been on a downward trend for years... the White House has chosen to make it a particular point of complaint'.
Another was more pointed, accusing officials of rewriting history, 'That lie peaked as 2020 murders spiked 29.4%—worst in history. Now admin steals credit for pre-2025 safety gains'.
Several users said they would wait for independent verification, noting that official FBI data for 2025 will not be released until next year.
Some reactions went further, questioning the integrity of the figures themselves rather than their interpretation.
One comment claimed that the Trump administration has stopped counting, which is why crime has fallen. Others also suggested the inclusion of politics in crimes, 'What's the fraud and corruption rate? What's the elections crime rate?'.
Asher himself cautioned that RTCI figures are provisional and that official confirmation will come later. He noted that while progress should be acknowledged, the thousands of people murdered at that percentage is still 'far too many'.
