For all you need the skills of Carol Vorderman to deduce how someone other than Rory McIlroy or Danny Willett can win the Race to Dubai, that won’t prevent a select group from trying. An Byeong‑hun, Branden Grace, Louis Oosthuizen, Shane Lowry and Justin Rose have scope to upstage the leading duo over the climactic four days at the DP World Tour Championship.
Of those, Rose may be the man worthy of most respect; the Englishman finished as runner-up here in both 2012 and 2014, and is approaching the end of what has been a highly successful, and under-acclaimed, year.
“I fancy my chances,” said Rose on Wednesday. “Rory pipped me here in 2012. I remember being two ahead playing the last and he was a few holes behind. I looked at the leaderboard I was two ahead playing the last and I made birdie on the last. Very few times you play the last two ahead and make birdie and lose. He birdied the last five to win.
“He has a great record here. Henrik Stenson has a great record here. I would say me, Rory and Henrik, all of us have played incredibly well at this venue over the last few years. There’s a pretty fair chance that one of us is going to be there on Sunday.”
For Rose to prevail in the Race to Dubai, there are three scenarios. If he wins, McIlroy and Willett must both finish worse than in a two-way tie for second. If Rose is runner-up, McIlroy must be worse than seventh, Willett likewise and neither Grace, Oosthuizen or Lowry can win. If Rose finds himself in a two-way runners-up spot, McIlroy need be worse than 46th, Willett worse than 45th and none of the aforementioned trio, again, can lift the Tour Championship trophy.
“The equation for me is simple,” added Rose. “I’m close enough that if I win, I feel like I win the whole thing. So it’s very simple for me. I feel like I’m close enough where that’s good. I’m as close as I need to be.
“Where those guys are going to have to keep their eye up on one another; there’s a scenario where they could finish 20th and 25th and pick up the Race to Dubai, obviously if people like myself and Shane don’t finish in the top two.
“I need to go out and pretty much win the tournament and if I do that, it could be a great week. So from that point of view, is there less pressure on me? Probably not. There’s probably more pressure because I have to win, but it’s a much more simple equation. At least I know I can be very single-minded on what my goal is this week.”
The 2013 US Open champion cites consistency as the most pleasing aspect of his year. He has won twice, in Hong Kong and New Orleans, and had brushes with glory at two majors. “Jack Nicklaus has always said that his bad was better than everybody else’s bad, and he was able to manage his game and that created a lot of winning opportunities for him,” the 35-year-old explained.
“You can never control what other people do. So if I played like I did this year, next year, maybe that would result in one or two major championships. I feel like I’m knocking on the door again to win the big tournaments and sometimes you need to do that to get that breakthrough.
“If I continue to put myself in that position, then the door is going to open for me. This year, I’ve been beaten a couple of times by record‑breaking performances, Jason Day 20 under par at the US PGA Championship at Whistling Straits and Jordan Spieth, 18 under at the Masters.
“I felt like I did all the right things to give myself a chance to win this year, so I just need to continue to do that next year. You sometimes can’t force the victory. It just needs to happen.”
