Nov. 18--On paper it was a bad day for the Cubs, who watched their archrivals get better Monday while missing out on one of their primary free-agent targets
The Cubs lost out on free-agent catcher Russell Martin, who signed a five-year, $82 million deal with the Blue Jays, and saw the Cardinals acquire outfielder Jason Heyward in a four-player deal with the Braves.
A punch in the face, followed by a kick in the gut.
In reality though, the Cubs are so far behind the Cardinals there's little chance they can catch them in 2015 no matter who they sign. So perhaps it's better the dream is squashed quickly so they can go back to hyping the start of the Kris Bryant era.
This is the conundrum the Cubs are facing since firing Rick Renteria for Joe Maddon:
Is it better to take smaller steps this winter and see if a young team can respond to Maddon and meld together at a gradual rate? Or did Maddon's pronouncement they're "talking playoffs" put the Cubs in position where they have to spend to try to make it happen this year?
Maddon's genius in Tampa Bay was doing more with less, taking young teams with small payrolls and getting them into the postseason. It'd be interesting to see if Maddon can do it with the team he inherited, a few modest signings, the addition of the minor league player of the year (Bryant) and perhaps Addison Russell in June.
Instead, the pressure to contend in 2015 has put the onus on the Cubs to "go for it" in free agency, even if it means overpaying for players in their early 30s, like Martin and Jon Lester.
The Cubs made a concerted effort to sign Martin, the best free-agent catcher available, but President Theo Epstein balked when it got to five years and over $80 million for a catcher who will turn 32 in February.
That's a reasonable concern, and why some feel the Blue Jays went overboard and will regret it in about three years.
Still, most Cubs fans would've been happy for Epstein to give Martin another year and an extra $18 million, especially after reading reports they were "inching" toward a deal and "frontrunners" from the start.
It was reminiscent of the winter of 2006, when they gave Alfonso Soriano, who was soon to be 31, an eight-year, $136 million deal. The year before, the Cubs had missed out on Rafael Furcal, who got a three-year, $39 million deal from the Dodgers.
Everyone was happy they decided to overpay on Soriano, except for other baseball executives.
By Year 3 there were signs Soriano's legs weren't going to last long, and by the time Epstein and Co. arrived in 2011 the Cubs began the long slog of trying to find someone to take him off their hands.
Martin may still be a productive catcher in 2019 at 36, but if you really believe Kyle Schwarber is your future behind the plate, there's no reason to wait until 2020 to find out. Maybe the Cubs truly believe Schwarber will become a left fielder and they'll have to get another catcher anyway, as many surmise. But they keep insisting Schwarber can catch in the majors, so why risk blocking his path in 2017 or '18?
Now the Cubs turn their focus to Lester, and there's a chance they won't get him either. If that happens, Epstein will be 0-for-2 and the grumbling will get louder.
It's no slam dunk. At the general managers meetings, Epstein spoke of the "balancing act" between overpaying for free agents and sticking with what you have.
"If you're counting on one free agent who by definition you've paid more for than, virtually always, anyone else in the industry, you're usually buying some phase of his decline too toward the end," Epstein said. "If you're counting on that player to make the difference for you and he must perform, I think you're on a bit of a fool's errand."
The Cubs can afford to overpay a player and take on "some phase of his decline," but that doesn't mean they should, especially at this phase of the rebuild.
Look at the Yankees, who have a slew of bad contracts that don't match up to recent performances, including Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann, not to mention returning Biogenesis alumnus Alex Rodriguez.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said at last week's GM meetings "we have a desire to get younger as a team," a far cry from the traditional Yankees credo of not being outbid by anyone.
The Cubs have already gotten younger and now have a manager who knows how to win without superstars. .
So spend the money if it makes you better, but don't overspend just to move the timeline up a year.
psullivan@tribpub.com
Twitter @PWSullivan
