SAN FRANCISCO — Hours before their winner-take-all Game 5 against the San Francisco Giants, the Dodgers called an audible, announcing Thursday morning that Corey Knebel, not Julio Urías, will start in the biggest game of their season.
Urías is not injured or otherwise unavailable. He will pitch Thursday night at some point. This is just another example of front offices across Major League Baseball searching for every edge, bucking conventional thought even on the grandest stages, in 2021. Urías was notified of the change Thursday morning, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.
Knebel will serve as an opener, forcing the Giants to either tailor their lineup, or at least the top of it, to face the right-hander to avoid giving the Dodgers the matchup advantage for an inning or yield a mismatch. Knebel has reverse splits over his career, meaning he is more effective against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters even though he throws right-handed.
Meanwhile, Numbers indicate Urías, a left-hander, was just about as effective, if not more so, against right-handed hitters this season. Right-handed hitters batted .222 with 11 home runs and a .605 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in 553 plate appearances in the regular season. Left-handed batters hit .210 with eight home runs and a .640 OPS in 192 plate appearances.
If the Giants stack their lineup with right-handed hitters, the Dodgers could use another right-handed reliever after Knebel before inserting Urías for multiple innings. The Dodgers, ultimately, are seeking optimal matchups with pitchers who aren’t as good as Urías early on in a low-leverage spots to shrink the game from 27 outs to 24, 21 or even 18 outs before using Urías.
Knebel opened four games during the regular season, including once against the Giants on Sept. 3 when the Dodgers were still regularly opting for bullpen games with a four-man rotation.
The Giants countered with two right-handed hitters (Darin Ruf first and Kris Bryant third) and two left-handed batters (Brandon Belt second and LaMonte Wade Jr. fourth) at the top of the order.
Wade faced Knebel once and didn’t bat again, replaced by the right-handed-hitting Austin Slater with the left-hander Alex Vesia on the mound in the third inning. Knebel gave up two hits, had two strikeouts, and threw 32 pitches in two innings that day at Oracle Park. The Giants went on to win, 3-2.
In his three other opener appearances, Knebel threw 1 2/3 innings once and one inning twice. Overall, he gave up one earned run in 5 2/3 innings as an opener. The Dodgers went 3-1 in those games.
Urías has not come out of the bullpen in any of his 33 outings in 2021 — 32 during the regular season and one in Game 2. As a full-time starter, he went 20-3 with a 2.96 ERA in a career-high 185 2/3 innings.
The Dodgers did not indicate that Urías wouldn’t start until the announcement was made on Twitter. He was the listed starter and manager Dave Roberts said Urías would take the mound. On Wednesday, Urías spoke to the media on a Zoom call from Dodger Stadium before the Dodgers flew to San Francisco as if he would start.
Urías threw just 72 pitches in the Dodgers’ Game 2 win Saturday. He’ll take the mound Thursday, whenever that is, on regular rest.
Logan Webb will start for San Francisco after tossing 7 2/3 scoreless innings in Game 1. Or at least that’s what’s listed for now. Perhaps the Giants will play the same game and change their plans.
