Australian trade minister, Andrew Robb, has declared momentum for leadership change in the Liberal party “is dying”, as the government claws back some ground in the latest Fairfax Ipsos poll.
The survey shows the Coalition has closed the gap with Labor in the two-party preferred stakes, with Labor’s lead pared back to 51% to the Coalition’s 49% in two-party preferred terms, and that prime minister Tony Abbott’s personal approval rating is also up.
Leadership speculation against Abbott has continued over the weekend, but Robb told ABC Radio that he hasn’t seen any “significant change” from the position that colleagues took in defeating a spill motion against the prime minister last month.
“There’s been a lot of speculation. There is a smaller group that has been advocating change, but I think they’ve been putting out continuous spurious leaks and other things to keep up momentum, but it’s dying because voters have spoken,” Robb said, adding the Coalition has seen “a very strong movement back”.
He said most of his colleagues wanted Abbott to be given “some clear air” to get on with the job.
“The significant turnaround in the polls is also conclusive proof that the votes want that as well,” Robb said.
The trade minister warned agitators to stop plotting against Abbott.
“This elusive group of unnamed colleagues have a responsibility to the rest of the team and the country to pull their heads in.”
Finance minister, Mathias Cormann, said the government was “a very good team” that needs to be able to get on with the job of implementing policy reform.
“What it [the poll] shows is that when we focus on the issues that matter to the Australian people, our position in the community improves,” he told ABC Radio on Monday morning.
Shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, told Sky News on Monday morning the poll result is not the end of the leadership matter.
“I’m sure that there’s scores of Liberal MPs scouring the papers this morning as they decide whether to take down the prime minister this week or wait till another time,” Bowen said.
Deputy prime minister, Warren Truss, rubbished suggestions the Coalition received a boost in the polls because voters had already factored in Abbott’s departure.
“I think that’s a line that must have come straight from ALP headquarters,” he told Channel Seven.
The improvement comes after last week’s Newspoll also recorded an improvement in the Coalition’s dire polling position – putting Labor ahead by 53 to 47%.
According to the Fairfax poll, the Coalition’s primary vote rose by 4% to 42% and Labor’s fell by 4% to 36%. Tony Abbott’s personal approval rating also improved, although it still stands at a net -30% (32% approval, 62% disapproval).
As voters factored in the real prospect of a Labor victory, Bill Shorten’s approval rating deteriorated but remains well ahead of Abbott’s with 43% approving and 43% disapproving of his performance.
When voters were asked their preference for Liberal leader, 39% preferred Malcolm Turnbull and only 19% Abbott. When Julie Bishop was the alternative choice 26% preferred her as leader to 19% for Abbott.
But as leadership discussions continued within the Coalition, Julie Bishop was being touted as the “safe” Liberal leadership candidate who would deliver minimal frontbench upheaval and greater party unity, as more conservative Liberals conclude Tony Abbott cannot save his prime ministership.
Malcolm Turnbull remains the clearly favoured alternative, but the Liberal party has entered a phase of complicated backroom deal-making as frontbenchers calculate what a leadership change would mean for their own positions and the conservative wing considers what a Turnbull prime ministership would mean for the government’s policy direction.
Conservative Abbott-backers are now talking about the prospect of supporting Bishop’s candidacy if the momentum for change is unstoppable, on the condition that it would involve minimal changes to the frontbench. Bishop’s backers argue that, in the event of a successful spill motion, the party should be presented with a choice rather than a deal stitched up behind the scenes between possible alternatives.
Meanwhile, Abbott is still trying to shore up his position after the spill motion last month was defeated 61 votes to 39.
Asked about the ongoing leadership agitation at an event for Clean Up Australia Day, Abbott drew a connection, saying the speculation was “just recycled rubbish ... on a day like Clean Up Australia Day let’s put it in a bag and get rid of it”.
He said he accepted he could not “please all of the people all of the time” but insisted he would be getting on with “the business of government” every day.
Early this week Abbott will announce the government has dropped the idea of a Medicare copayment, something it appeared had already happened when new health minister Sussan Ley said last month it was “off the table” unless she could strike a deal with doctors, who quickly laid down preconditions that were impossible for the government. The new position was revealed to the backbench committee and a meeting with Abbott and health minister Sussan Ley last week.
Abbott has also invited some backbenchers to drinks with ministers in the cabinet anteroom Sunday night as part of a concerted effort to listen to their concerns that he was insufficiently consultative.
The regular “general political discussion” at Monday’s cabinet meeting could be a flashpoint for the leadership issue. There is no separate Liberal party meeting this week – they occur once a fortnight – but any two members can call for a meeting to discuss a spill motion at any time.
But even those agitating for leadership change are divided about timing and unclear about how another ballot would be precipitated.
Some are arguing change needs to happen before the budget to give a new leader a chance to put a stamp on economic policy, but others say it would be better to wait until after the budget and the 28 March NSW election.
Flashpoints remain, including Friday’s meeting of the Liberal party federal executive where several members intend to demand answers to the lack of transparency over party financing revealed in the explosive emails from party treasurer Philip Higginson, leaked last week.
Many backbenchers remain dismayed at the way Abbott and the attorney general, George Brandis, attacked the president of the human rights commission, Gillian Triggs, but conservatives insist Turnbull’s remarks – that the party should be concentrating on the release of children – indicated he was “out of touch” with the party’s conservative base and the views of the backbench. Bishop, whose remarks on the issue mirrored Abbott and Brandis, had a “better ear for the base”, they said.
As reported by Guardian Australia at the time, Abbott sought to skip over the regular general political conversation when cabinet met after the last unsuccessful spill motion, but was forced by ministers to clear the room of advisors and note-takers and discuss the party’s woes.
Abbott’s supporters were expressing frustration on Sunday at the ongoing leadership discussion.
Asked whether leadership would be considered this week, assistant treasurer Josh Frydenberg told the ABC’s Insiders program, “I hope not.”
“There’s certainly going to be members of my own side who want to see a change in leader, but I don’t think anything the prime minister does will convince them that he should stay in the role. I mean, If he delivered the Gettysburg Address, if he won a Nobel prize, they’d still take the position they’d want a change in leader. My view though … is that’s a minority view,” he said.
Meanwhile the trade minister, Andrew Robb, pleaded for Abbott to be given more time to repair the Coalition’s political standing.
“I mean, give the guy some time. Give him the clear air. Give all of us some clear air to fix the mistakes. He’s laying out an agenda with a family policy and a small business program, a health policy that’s coming out. All of these things, we need time to fix it.
“He’s surely earned the right to get that opportunity, and in the meantime, stop all of this disunity and leaking and undermining. There was a very clear message from that spill motion: give the guy the opportunity that he has earned, clearly earned, to show that he can get things back on track,” Robb told Sky television.
Meanwhile Turnbull himself insisted he was focused on helping the New South Wales premier, Mike Baird, retain government on 28 March, speaking to reporters while walking his dog.
“Whatever questions people have about me, or Tony Abbott or Julie Bishop or Joe Hockey or Scott Morrison or anybody in the federal party, whatever federal issues they’ve got, the state election is not the time to be responding to them,” he said Sunday.
“We have to have a laser-like focus on the return of the Baird government ... do not assume, nobody should assume, that Mike Baird is an absolute certainty to win, he is not,” he said.
