The S&P 500 has just closed its best week since April, pushing the index close to where Wall Street broadly expected it to finish the year.
The benchmark closed at a record 7,757.64, up 3.58% on the week, its strongest five days since April and roughly 1% under the average year-end forecast on the Street.
Wall Street’s average year-end target sits around 7,845, with nearly five months still left in 2026.
JPMorgan has now raised the bar again.
The Target Goes Up, The Valuation Doesn’t
Strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas lifted JPMorgan’s 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,800, implying 3.1% upside from Friday’s close.
It is the second increase in two months — 7,600 to 7,800 came in June — and roughly 800 points of upward revision since March, when the bank cut to 7,200 as Brent crude spiked and the Strait of Hormuz closed.
The earnings estimates did all the work. JPMorgan raised its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast — the profit the index generates per share of ownership — to $365 from $350, or 35% growth, against a $358 consensus. The 2027 number went to $420 from $390.
The forward multiple, meaning the price investors pay today for each dollar of profit expected next year, stayed exactly where it was at about 20 times.
The bank cited higher-for-longer rates, geopolitical risk and heavy equity and debt supply still to be absorbed.
JPMorgan described the earnings picture as “strong and broad-based across multiple sectors.”
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The AI Spending Cycle Is Starting To Matter
The biggest piece of the earnings story is artificial intelligence.
JPMorgan says the latest earnings season is providing more evidence that the enormous capital spending cycle is beginning to translate into actual revenue growth.
Cloud businesses are showing particularly strong momentum.
Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) reported AWS growth of 37% year over year, while Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) saw Azure revenue rise 43%. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported an 82% increase in Google Cloud revenue.
Backlogs are also expanding.
Google Cloud’s backlog increased by $52 billion quarter over quarter to $514 billion, while Amazon’s backlog reached $496 billion, up 36% sequentially and nearly 2.5 times higher than a year earlier.
For JPMorgan, this provides an increasingly important signal: AI monetization may be accelerating faster than spending.
And spending is already enormous.
AI capex is expected to reach roughly $900 billion this year, up 85% year over year, and could exceed $1.2 trillion by the end of 2027.
So How High Can The S&P 500 Go?
The board, updated for Monday’s revision:
| Firm | 2026 Year-End Target | Implied Move From Last Friday’s SPX Close |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 8,300 | +7.0% |
| Yardeni Research | 8,250 | +6.3% |
| RBC Capital Markets | 8,150 | +5.1% |
| 22V Research | 8,130 | +4.8% |
| Oppenheimer | 8,100 | +4.4% |
| Citigroup | 8,100 | +4.4% |
| CIBC | 8,020 | +3.4% |
| Deutsche Bank | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Fundstrat | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Goldman Sachs | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| JPMorgan ↑ from 7,800 | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Societe Generale | 8,000 | +3.1% |
| Ned Davis Research | 7,950 | +2.5% |
| Wells Fargo | 7,950 | +2.5% |
| Average | 7,854 | +1.2% |
| Barclays | 7,800 | +0.5% |
| Stifel Nicolaus | 7,800 | +0.5% |
| Evercore ISI | 7,750 | −0.1% |
| HSBC | 7,650 | −1.4% |
| Scotiabank | 7,600 | −2.0% |
| UBS | 7,500 | −3.3% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 7,400 | −4.6% |
| Bank of America | 7,100 | −8.5% |
Photo: Pavel Ignatov / Shutterstock
