Former state Sen. Scott Sifton’s video launching his Senate campaign opened with an image of Missouri’s GOP senator — but not the one who’s up for reelection next year.
“When he raised his fist and betrayed our democracy, Josh Hawley showed us who he really is,” Sifton, a Democrat, says in the video as a widely shared image of Hawley greeting former President Donald Trump’s supporters on Jan. 6 dissolves into scenes of rioters fired up by Trump’s and Hawley’s false claims of election fraud smashing their way into the Capitol.
The video then pivots to GOP Sen. Roy Blunt, who is up for a third term in 2022, saying that when Blunt “was too weak to stand up to his party’s lies, he showed us who he is too.”
The decision to feature Hawley as well as Blunt underscores a broader Democratic strategy to focus on the high-profile freshman senator as they take on Blunt in a state once considered a battleground but now dominated by Republicans.
Invoking Hawley
Sifton’s consultant, Eric Hyers, said in a statement to CQ Roll Call that Hawley perpetuated a lie about the presidential election “because he thought it would help his own political future.”
Hyers said Blunt “just stood by and watched, too weak to call out the lie, and we see where it led. That’s not leadership. Senator Blunt should be held accountable for his failure to speak out and defend our democracy. This election is an opportunity to send a strong message that Missourians deserve better.”
Blunt’s spokeswoman declined to comment.
Blunt, who said last month he is “planning on reelection, but I haven’t made a final statement on that yet,” has tended to have a lower favorability rating than Hawley, according to political science professor Kenneth Warren, associate director of the St. Louis University/YouGov poll.
But Hawley’s push to challenge four states’ Electoral College results thrust the first-term senator into the national spotlight, and his approval rating has dropped in some surveys.
According to Morning Consult’s polling, on Jan. 5, 43% of Missouri voters surveyed did not approve of Hawley, while 42% approved. On Jan. 18, 49% said they did not approve of Hawley, while Hawley’s approval rating dropped to 36%.
”Everyone’s talking about Josh Hawley,” said Missouri Democratic Party Chairman Michael Butler, saying there are voters who feel “betrayed” by Republicans.
For his part, Blunt waited until after states’ electors cast their votes in mid-December to say that Joe Biden was the president-elect. As the top Republican on the Senate Rules and Administration Committee, Blunt was one of four lawmakers charged with counting those votes on Jan. 6.
Blunt opposed Hawley’s effort to challenge the results, telling reporters at the Capitol in early January that the gambit from Hawley and Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz had no chance of succeeding. After the Jan. 6 riot, Blunt told CBS This Morning that Trump’s actions “that day and leading up to that day on this topic were clearly reckless.”
For Democrats, that wasn’t enough. And they now see an opportunity to tie Blunt to the junior senator.
”I was not surprised to see Scott center Hawley,” said former Missouri state Rep. Don Calloway.
“It’s also an indictment of the Republican Party,” Calloway added. But he noted Democrats can only get so far running against Hawley “particularly when he’s not even the candidate.”
Recent losses
Calloway said the questions facing Sifton and Democrats looking to tie Blunt to Hawley are whether the “legacy Republicans” who have criticized Hawley are willing to support a Democrat, and whether those Republicans are reflective of most Missouri GOP voters.
It appears that they aren’t. In the Morning Consult poll, Hawley saw a drop in his approval among Missouri Republicans, but he remained popular, with 63 percent saying they approved of the GOP senator.
Gregg Keller, a Republican strategist in Missouri who advised the state GOP during Hawley’s 2018 race, said Sifton’s attempt to tie Hawley to Blunt was a sign of how much Democrats have struggled to win statewide elections.
”Clearly it’s an attempt to nationalize the race,” Keller said. ”If he can’t nationalize this race, he, like all Democrats in Missouri at this point, is going to lose by double digits.”
Missouri was once considered a battleground, but has shifted toward Republicans in recent election cycles. In 2012, Democrats won four of the five statewide executive offices, and Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill defeated controversial Republican Todd Akin by 16 points.
Four years later, Trump carried the Show Me State by 19 points, while Republicans swept the five statewide executive offices. Blunt also won a second term, defeating then-Secretary of State Jason Kander by just 3 points. In 2018, Hawley defeated McCaskill by 6 points. Trump won the state by 15 points in 2020, as GOP Gov. Mike Parsons defeated Democratic state auditor Nicole Galloway by 16 points. Galloway did not have to give up her job as state auditor, which is up for election in 2022, so she is the only remaining Democrat in statewide office.
Warren, the political science professor who is also a Democrat, said Trump boosted GOP turnout in rural parts of the state, which had been building over multiple election cycles.
“The swelling of the rural vote … that’s what has allowed Republicans to win,” Warren said. “The Democratic vote has increased somewhat in Jackson County, or the Kansas City area, the St. Louis area, but it just hasn’t been enough to offset this enormous increase in rural counties.”
Democrats acknowledge winning statewide is an uphill battle, but some think they have a shot.
“Margins matter,” said one Democrat familiar with the race. “Democrats don’t have to win a majority of counties. They need to trim margins where they can and drive up turnout where they can as well.”
Democrats first have to contend with a Senate primary, and some in the state said Sifton, whom Galloway endorsed, is a top contender. Two other Democrats have already filed statements of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission: Marine veteran Lucas Kunce and activist Tim Shepard.
Kunce wrote in an email that he is seriously exploring a Senate run, and acknowledged, “Everyone is definitely talking about Josh Hawley.” Kunce signaled he plans to make an economic case against Blunt if he decides to run.
Shephard said he does not plan to feature Hawley prominently in his own race, describing Hawley as “a symptom of a larger problem.” To start winning again, Shephard said Missouri Democrats should focus on a progressive, populist agenda, and on rebuilding their party infrastructure.
“What Democratic club organizers say, and activists across the state are telling me [is] they’ve felt abandoned by the Democratic Party in recent years,” Shephard said.
Butler, the state Democratic Party chairman, said rebuilding the party is also going to take investment from national Democrats. He believes it can be done but acknowledged it could take more than one election cycle.
