Dec. 06--Jon Lester will turn 36 before the final year of a six-year contract that several suitors reportedly are offering.
At that same age, Barry Zito is temporarily finished after failing to fulfill a lucrative seven-year contract in 2013. And at 34, CC Sabathia is trying to rebound after an injury-plagued season as he enters the final two years of an eight-year, $182 million contract.
Those examples, along with the ailments that limited the full effectiveness of Kevin Brown and Mike Hampton during their multiyear contracts one decade ago, further serve as a warning to teams willing to offer lengthy contracts to pitchers in their 30s.
According to Fangraphs.com, Lester's velocity has dipped by nearly 2 mph to an average of 91.8 mph in 2014. But his 2.46 ERA and his 2192/3 innings in 2014 were career highs.
Interested teams are banking that Lester -- the centerpiece of the Cubs' aggressive free agent efforts -- possesses the equipment to sustain enough success and longevity to deserve offers of at least six seasons.
Those teams include the Red Sox, who know Lester's medical history as well as any team based on his 81/2 seasons with him, as well as the Giants (who have Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner in the midst of eight- and six-year deals, respectively) and reportedly the deep-pocket Dodgers.
"I'd give it to him," said one American League scout who witnessed several of Lester's starts last season, when he was a combined 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA in 32 starts with the Red Sox and Athletics. "He's successful, consistent and never complains.
"If you're giving him six years, you try to get five good ones."
That could be the most realistic view, given the wear and tear of starting pitchers over a career, a dip in velocity and a recent outbreak of reconstructive elbow surgeries.
Lester, who turns 31 on Jan. 7, has made at least 31 starts in seven consecutive seasons (pitching at least 2031/3 innings in six of those seven seasons) and has pitched an additional 84 innings in five postseasons.
The one major factor, however, that convinces many that Lester can remain effective for a lengthy period is that his array of pitches -- fastball, cut fastball, slider, curve and changeup -- is sharp enough to compensate for any dip in velocity.
"We saw him three times, and we got a different look each time," White Sox catcher Tyler Flowers said. "I got two hits off him the first game, and I can tell you those were mistakes."
In the next two games against Lester, Flowers was 0-for-6 with three strikeouts.
"He throws you a cut fastball on your hands, and then gets you to chase a curve in the dirt," Flowers said.
There was no noticeable change or flaw in Lester's mechanics
"We saw the same guy as we saw on the other side," said one evaluator with the A's, who acquired Lester before the July 31 trade deadline. "He's durable, transfers his weight well and his delivery is sound.
"He has proven you don't have to throw 98 mph to be a power pitcher because of his cut fastball that makes his 93 mph fastball seem like it's 98 mph."
mgonzales@tribpub.com
Twitter @MDGonzales
