MINNEAPOLIS _ Jeff Johnson was on the verge of shocking the Minnesota political world Tuesday night, as he built a commanding lead in the Republican primary for governor over former Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
Johnson, a Hennepin County commisioner, campaigned on a message of change. Pawlenty, a former two-term governor, was trying to stage a comeback after eight years out of the governor's office.
If Johnson holds onto his lead, he will face the winner of the DFL primary: U.S Rep. Tim Walz, state Rep. Erin Murphy and Attorney General Lori Swanson. Walz had a small lead in early returns on the DFL side.
Based on anecdotal evidence and data from some cities, voters turned out in big numbers Tuesday compared to previous primary elections. Voting officials in the cities reported turnout had already matched 2014 totals with several hours before the polls closed _ and record-breaking numbers of absentee ballots.
At Woodbury Lutheran Church in Washington County, Jack Lawler, an 18-year-old first time voter, said even though he voted for Johnson and identifies as a conservative, he'll support the best candidate: "It's not really about beating the other side," he said. "It's about getting the best person in office."
Lawler said he looked for a candidate that shared his views on limited gun control and low taxes.
Lori Simon, 60, said Walz earned her vote for his position on issues like education and health care. He's also not a "vulture," she said, and doesn't tear down fellow DFL candidates like others in his party.
The stakes of the governor's race are huge following the eight-year tenure of DFL Gov. Mark Dayton, which saw tax increases and bigger investments in schools and social programs.
The next governor will be in office after the 2020 census, after which new legislative and congressional districts will be drawn. If Johnson or Pawlenty win and Republicans hold on to legislative majorities, Republicans will have full control of state government for the first time in half a century, allowing them to reduce the size and scope of government and weaken the influence of public sector labor unions.
Johnson, 51, won the Republican endorsement at the party's June convention. Although badly outspent by Pawlenty, who is 57, Johnson ran a grass-roots powered campaign that took him around the state in an RV festooned with his image and the slogan, "Overturn the Status Quo."
Despite a long career in politics that includes losing soundly to Dayton's 2014 re-election, eight years on the county board and a previous career in the state Legislature, Johnson made the case for change against Pawlenty, who previously served as governor from 2003-11.
Johnson's campaign theme was forcing state government to get off the backs of Minnesota business and out of the lives of its citizens.
Walz, who spent 24 years in the National Guard and 20 years as a teacher, promised to use his biography and Greater Minnesota ties to form new coalitions that could break through the gridlock that has crippled state government in recent years.
Walz, 54, is a sixth-term congressman from a district that spans much of southern Minnesota and backed President Donald Trump by 15 percentage points.
Murphy, 58, was not well known or well financed when she got in the race right after the 2016 election. Via a combination of social media savvy, a bevy of volunteers and a message that resonated with the DFL's progressive base, she first won the party's endorsement at the June convention. She was running close behind Walz in early returns.
Murphy was the head of the nurse's union before her election to the Minnesota House in 2006, and she was the majority leader during an eventful two-year term beginning in 2013, in which the DFL-controlled Legislature passed same-sex marriage and medical marijuana while raising taxes and increasing spending.
Were either Swanson or Murphy to win in November, they would become Minnesota's first woman governor. Swanson, 51, promised to bring the state together to make progress on issues recently left undone _ including a complex tax code and the opioid epidemic _ in part due to dysfunction between Dayton and the Legislature.
Swanson, the three-term DFL attorney general, was running far behind Walz and Murphy in early returns.
Given the stakes and the candidate resumes, interest groups are expected to flood the November contest with money for advertising _ most of it slashing attacks on the opposition.
For months, the political arms of groups like the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce and the Minnesota Business Partnership, which represents the state's largest corporations, have been gearing up to help Pawlenty in hopes of a state government more conducive to business tax cuts and an end to big city progressives' drive to increase the minimum wage and other benefits.
Should he win the primary, Johnson would have to persuade the big donors that he can win in November after his 2014 loss by 110,000 votes in a good Republican year, in what many considered a lackluster campaign.
On the DFL side, labor unions and a few wealthy contributors that traditionally back the DFL are expected to pour money into the race _ both to support the DFL candidate but also to defeat Pawlenty should he be the nominee. These DFL activists are especially alarmed at the prospect of Minnesota becoming like nearby states, which have shifted markedly into Republican territory in recent years.
Johnson talked with supporters Tuesday night at Lucky's 13 Pub in Plymouth.
In Plymouth, Michelle Stein, a homemaker, 44, brought her daughters to the polls to watch her vote. It was difficult, she said, to pick, though she ultimately went with Pawlenty.
"I think they'd all do a good job, so it's hard to pick," she said.
Members of the Dokken family drove to the polls at Minnetonka United Methodist Church together split on which gubernatorial candidate to support. When they left the polls, 48-year-old Dan Dokken said he voted for Murphy, while his wife Kris and 20-year-old son Kyle chose Walz.
"I think our main goal is to make sure Pawlenty doesn't get in there," Dan Dokken, a technology project manager, said.
