MILWAUKEE _ One of the longest, most competitive U.S. Senate races in Wisconsin history is going down to the wire.
Democrat Russ Feingold holds a 1-point lead over Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, according to Wednesday's Marquette University Law School poll.
Feingold was backed by 45 percent of likely voters surveyed, and Johnson was supported by 44 percent, with Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson garnering 3 percent support.
"Clearly, a 1-point race is inside the margin of error. It's right on the knife's edge and could go either way," poll director Charles Franklin said.
Sensing that the tilt of power in the U.S. Senate could be at stake in Wisconsin, outside third-party groups have poured into the race in the closing days. At least a dozen such groups are currently on air.
Johnson's surge was likely keyed by his advertising push in early September in which he went positive while conservative groups piled on Feingold. Three weeks ago, the Marquette poll showed Feingold with a 2-point advantage.
Johnson has trailed Feingold in every Marquette poll going back more than a year. In a mid-November 2015 survey, Feingold had an 11-point edge over Johnson among registered voters. In that poll, one out of three voters had no opinion on Johnson when asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidate.
The landscape has clearly changed.
Feingold's lead went from double digits into upper single digits in the late spring and summer, Franklin said, and narrowed to lower single digits most of the fall.
"This is a good example of a long-term slow shift in voters," Franklin said. "With Johnson, you see it with him becoming more familiar to voters. His 'don't know' rate, which had been a good deal higher than Feingold's, has come down. But as it's come down he has built up more favorable attitudes, rather than less favorable attitudes toward him."
Franklin said the changes in voter attitudes have turned "a race that was very lopsided a year ago, into one that is very competitive now."
The two candidates have solid support within their parties _ Johnson backed by 86 percent of Republicans and Feingold backed by 85 percent of Democrats.
Among independents, Johnson had 46 percent support to Feingold's 40 percent. Last month, independents favored Feingold by 7 points.
The candidates still rate well with voters, despite an onslaught of negative advertising.
Half the voters describe each candidate as honest. Forty-five percent describe Johnson as someone who "cares about people like me," compared with 49 percent for Feingold.
Johnson is viewed favorably by 43 percent, unfavorably by 40 percent, with 18 percent unable to offer an opinion. Feingold's favorable rating is at 46 percent, unfavorable at 42 percent, with 12 percent lacking an opinion.
Brian Reisinger, a Johnson spokesman, said: "This race is a dead heat, and the momentum is clearly with Ron Johnson. Wisconsinites are closer than ever to sending Sen. Feingold back to California _ for good."
Reisinger was echoing Republican criticism of Feingold for a teaching stint at Stanford University.
Michael Tyler, a Feingold spokesman, said: "With less than a week to go, Russ has the clear advantage heading toward Election Day. Wisconsinites are already voting in record numbers to combat the millions Sen. Johnson and his billionaires like Diane Hendricks and the Koch brothers are dumping into Wisconsin with negative attacks in a last ditch effort to keep him in Washington to protect their interests."
In other key measures from the poll, House Speaker Paul Ryan of Janesville was viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent. Gov. Scott Walker's approval was 42 percent and disapproval was 51 percent. President Barack Obama was viewed favorably by 52 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent.
And when it comes to talking politics, it looks as if people prefer to speak more freely with those they really know. Seventy-two percent of people talk politics with family and friends on at least a weekly basis, while only 44 percent do so as frequently at work.
The poll of 1,400 registered voters was conducted Oct. 26 through Monday. The margin of error for the full sample was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. For the 1,255 likely voters, the margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
