TAMPA, Fla. — On the field, a rare breeze is blowing, and a joyful memory is stirring. There is anticipation, there is laughter, there is Rob Gronkowski tossing a toy football to a happy child in a Gronk jersey.
This is what training camp looks like in the reflection of a Lombardi Trophy. Everything is shiny and everyone is happy. The Buccaneers are back at work, and so the rest of the NFL is back on notice.
This isn’t just another defending champion coming back after a summer of hangovers and parades. This is the sequel that picks up right where the original left off.
Tom Brady. Mike Evans. Chris Godwin. Tristan Wirfs. All back. Lavonte David, Devin White, Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea. All back. Every player of consequence is returning, and the braintrust was untouched, too.
If ever a team was poised for a repeat, this is the group. These Bucs are a carbon copy of the team that went on the road to win three consecutive playoff games and then spanked the defending champions 31-9 in the Super Bowl.
How could they possibly lose in 2021?
Well, now that you’ve asked ...
It’s a long way between here and glory. And a lot can happen in a sport that measures attrition in daily doses. Tampa Bay was extraordinary in the final months of last season, but we conveniently forget how uneven the Bucs were in September, October and November.
So can the Bucs repeat as Super Bowl champions? Absolutely. They have a better chance than most, and maybe a better chance than anyone.
But there will be injuries and unexpected regressions. There will be times when it feels as if they have taken a wrong turn and have no hope of finding their way back to dominance.
With that in mind, here are five plot twists that could ruin a perfectly happy tale:
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1. The Bucs have so many stars at the skill positions that it was easy to overlook the performance of the offensive line last season.
The arrival of Wirfs seemed to elevate the entire unit, and the Bucs had the highest-scoring season in franchise history.
But it’s also worth noting that the same five offensive linemen made 76 of a possible 80 starts. The only serious injury in the regular season was Ali Marpet missing three games with a concussion. Maybe it was the strength of the opponents, but the Bucs lost two (the Saints and Rams) of those three games. Brady threw five of his 12 interceptions in those three games and had five of his 21 sacks, too.
Injuries on the offensive line decimated Kansas City in the Super Bowl. The Bucs cannot afford a similar scenario.
2. Remember the enthusiasm after the Bucs won the Super Bowl in the 2002 season? Remember how the offense was growing and the defense was overwhelming? It seemed like the Bucs would be contenders for years to come.
Except, the defense got old in a hurry and the Bucs were 7-9 in 2003. Warren Sapp was 31 that season and was soon on his way to Oakland. Shelton Quarles was 32 and missed five games with an injury. The secondary had hiccups and never recovered.
Maybe it doesn’t mean a thing, but Ndamukong Suh is 34, Jason Pierre-Paul is 32 and Lavonte David is 31.
3. The offense got better after the bye week last season. Not just a little better, but significantly.
The Bucs went from averaging 362 yards and 28.6 points per game to 413 yards and 33.8 points per game, including the postseason. They turned the ball over less, got more diverse on first down and utilized the play-action pass far more.
Maybe they found their sweet spot. Maybe that’s the formula moving forward. On the other hand, maybe opposing defenses will begin adjusting to this new style of Tampa Bay offense.
I’m not saying it’s impossible to keep up that level of scoring for an entire season, but only 10 teams have pulled if off in the last 50 years.
4. The Bucs earned that Super Bowl victory. No ifs, ands or buts. Well, maybe one “but.”
Tampa Bay got a division winner with a losing record in the first round, faced a hobbled Drew Brees in the second round, were helped by a goofy coaching decision from the Green Bay sideline in the NFC Championship Game and caught Kansas City with a decimated offensive line in the Super Bowl. Is it possible to have that much good fortune two years in a row?
5. The NFL has never seen a quarterback like Brady, and that’s not an opinion.
There have been QBs with better numbers in their prime, but there has never been another passer who came close to accomplishing what Brady has done in his 40s.
He later ridiculed the teams that declined to pursue him in 2020, but they did have history and common sense on their side. No 43-year-old had ever played at an elite level and, no matter how much faith you had in Brady, his performance was stunning in retrospect.
Still, he will eventually slow down. It’s inevitable. But is it imminent?
