TAMPA, Fla. — Congratulations, Todd Bowles. Glad to have you aboard.
Now, don’t screw up.
Yup, the honeymoon has ended that quickly. There will be no easing into this job, and no excuses on the back end. Bowles will either win big or be discredited for eternity.
That sounds harsh, but I don’t make the rules. This is what happens when a coach is handed the keys to a team coming off a 13-win season and with a legend at quarterback.
You’re probably aware, this isn’t the norm in the NFL. New coaches are typically taking over losing teams with suspect rosters and ticked-off fans. Even incremental progress is applauded and rewarded in those woebegone towns.
But here in Tampa Bay, there will be no moral victories or consolation prizes. The clock is ticking and the bomb squad is on alert.
If the Bucs aren’t playing deep into next January, then something has gone horribly wrong. At that point, Tom Brady will be 45 and likely regretting his decision to unretire. The salary cap will be facing a reckoning from all the contracts that were restructured to maximize the 2022 roster. And fans who were coerced into buying an extra year of season tickets will be seething.
Can you guess who everyone will blame?
Look, I realize it’s a tough business. Most teams head into the offseason regretting decisions and outcomes. Around here, we’ve had entire decades waiting for a savior to arrive in cleats.
And maybe that makes Bowles the perfect choice, even with his imperfect resume.
You see, he gets it. He’s been through this before, and he’s come away with a better sense of self. He seems entirely too nice for the hell that awaits him, but maybe that’s part of the secret.
“I think as a first-time head coach, you go into it with some measure of invincibility. Like, ‘This team is bad, but I can coach them better.’ And you think that’s all there is to it,” Bowles said. “But then there’s layers and layers on top that you never really noticed. Once you’re in the situation, you’re in too deep.
“And then you get a chance to step back and you see a lot of things that you would do differently and understand which hat (you wear) for which situation. I think I learned a great deal about that.”
He’s not as glib as Bruce Arians, but he is more introspective. He’s not as short-tempered, but he could be more attentive. He’s not as offensive-minded, but he’s got Brady and Byron Leftwich to help.
Of course, the bottom line is that Arians has an 89-51 record with a Super Bowl title as a head coach. Bowles is 26-41 and has never reached the postseason as a head coach.
Does that make him a risk to take over a team with Super Bowl aspirations? Yes, it does. Does that mean Brady’s legacy of 20 consecutive winning seasons as a starter is now in Bowles’ hands? Yes, it does.
And if Arians had retired in late January instead of late March, there’s a chance the Glazer family might have been tempted to look outside the organization for a replacement.
Instead, Bowles will get a second chance that he was never certain would come.
“A lot of head coaches that go on to get second opportunities have a lot of success because of the things that they’ve learned,” general manager Jason Licht said. “I know that if I would have been let go four years ago and then got another opportunity — which I don’t think I would have at that time — I know that I would have learned a lot from those first years here that would have made me better.”
Bill Belichick went 30-34 as the head coach in Cleveland before winning six Super Bowls in New England. Pete Carroll went 6-10 with the Jets and was fired after his first year as a head coach. Marv Levy was 31-42 in Kansas City and went on to a Hall of Fame career in Buffalo. Mike Shanahan was fired after going 8-12 with the Raiders, then won two Super Bowls in Denver.
Those stories may not be the norm, but they do exist.
“Unfortunately, in the NFL, people get thrust into positions. It’s their first time and, in reality, it’s not a long window you have to get it right,” Bucs co-owner Joel Glazer said. “I am of the view that you learn from experience, you learn from your mistakes and if you have that experience you are four steps ahead the next time you come into a situation.”
In that sense, this experience is completely different for Bowles than his first job in New York. He has a far better roster, and a far better sense of how to delegate as a head coach.
For Bowles, the sky is the limit with this team.
It is also, ominously, the expectation.
