TAMPA, Fla. — For a guy who has seemingly ruled the fields forever, Tom Brady is running out of time.
When the season began, we were supposed to believe these were the final, remarkable brush strokes of a masterful career. The achievement few thought possible, and no one dared try.
It wasn't just that he was aiming to play in a 10th Super Bowl or win a seventh title this season, it was that he was going to do both without any possibility that Bill Belichick would be riding in the first car of the parade.
Yet, look at where things stand with little more than a month of games remaining:
Brady is having the best season any 43-year-old has ever known, yet the wolves are at his door.
He's been ridiculed for coming up short in big games. He's been blistered for being a sore loser. At times, he's been criticized by the same head coach who was willing to put his own legacy on the line to sign him in Tampa Bay.
Brady could set records, the Bucs could end a playoff drought, the television ratings could go through the roof, and it still won't be enough.
That's because it was understood this was no ordinary experiment in Tampa Bay. The Bucs were handing $50 million and the keys to the franchise to a quarterback with a limited number of games left in his career. They were, in effect, saying to hell with the future beyond today.
So there will be no bell curve to grade the 2020 season in Tampa Bay. It's either pass or fail. Super Bowl or bust. And here, in Week 12, it's starting to look like Brady and the Bucs might fall short.
If they lose Sunday against the Chiefs — and they were 3.5-point underdogs going into the weekend — the Bucs will drop to 7-5. And, in case you didn't know it, 7-5 teams do not often reach the promised land. Only seven of the 108 Super Bowl participants have been either 7-5 or worse.
Now you know why I say Brady is running out of time.
Bucs coach Bruce Arians suggested this week that the offense's problems against quality opponents have to do with continuity. Brady didn't get a normal offseason to learn a new offense, and recent additions Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown are still getting adjusted, too.
Arians is right. That's definitely been a factor.
But is it also possible that for all of his diets and workouts, Brady just isn't an elite quarterback at age 43? Is it also possible that New England built its offensive game plans around Brady's skills, and the Bucs have instead tried to get Brady to adapt to Arians' style?
Turnovers have always been a reality in Arians' offense. It's that whole no-risk-it, no-biscuit philosophy of his. So it probably shouldn't be a surprise that Brady is fifth in the league in interceptions and is on pace to throw 13 picks for the first time in a decade.
But Brady also is averaging only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. That ranks 20th out of the 24 quarterbacks who have started nine or more games this season. That suggests the Bucs are not getting a lot biscuits for all of their risks.
You might recall Jameis Winston threw an absurd number of interceptions in 2019. But did you know Winston also was fifth in the league with 8.2 yards per pass attempt? In other words, he was making too many mistakes but he also was hitting a lot of deep passes.
Brady is making fewer mistakes, but also not making as many big plays.
It's possible that Arians' viewpoint is spot-on accurate. Maybe the Bucs just need a little more time to get adjusted to each other and the offense. They are, after all, seventh in the league in average scoring offense despite their many hiccups.
But the playoffs begin in six weeks. If the Bucs cannot figure out how to solve good defenses in the next month, their chances of playing in Raymond James Stadium in February are practically non-existent. And it's true Brady is signed for 2021, but how much better will things look in Tampa Bay when he is 44?
As I said, Brady is starting to run out of time.
