ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — It’s reckless. It’s foolish. It’s perilous.
Let’s do it.
It’s preposterous. It’s shortsighted. It’s a crapshoot.
Who’s on board?
The Rays have a chance to acquire the greatest two-way player of the last century, and all it will cost them is the very strategy that has allowed Tampa Bay to embarrass MLB’s biggest spenders year after year.
Is that such a high price to pay for Shohei Ohtani?
That’s a serious question, by the way. Baseball’s intelligentsia seems united in the idea that Anaheim should trade Ohtani before he leaves via free agency this winter, and the Rays are one of a handful of clubs with both the motivation and resources to pull off what could be one of history’s biggest blockbusters.
Imagine that. Ohtani would give the Rays the best starting rotation in baseball. And, as a designated hitter, he would be the most potent bat in a lineup that has been sickly for the better part of a month. It’s not an exaggeration to say the Rays would become World Series favorites overnight with Ohtani on the roster.
You just need to understand that this isn’t a long-term solution. In fact, it will hurt the Rays in the not-too-distant future.
No matter who acquires him — or if he stays in Anaheim — Ohtani is heading toward free agency in November and the Rays do not have the financial wherewithal to be a serious suitor. That means, from August to October, he would be the most expensive rental player the game has ever seen.
Forget the $10 million or so he will cost in salary for the remainder of 2023, the greater cost is in the players it will take to acquire him at the deadline. He is the ultimate all-in bet for a single shot at the World Series.
And that type of wild risk is contrary to the cool, efficient manner that has made Tampa Bay’s front office the envy of baseball.
It’s not that the Rays are afraid of a calculated gamble. They actually take more risks than most. They traded Blake Snell a month after he started Game 6 of the World Series. They traded Austin Meadows coming off a 106-RBI season. They gave up Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz on a short-term rental.
Owner Stuart Sternberg gives president Erik Neander and general manager Peter Bendix tremendous leeway in making deals with one admonition:
It’s OK if you miss and break a few windows, just don’t burn down the building.
An Ohtani trade means turning off the smoke alarms and chucking the fire extinguishers.
At minimum, he would cost two top prospects and maybe a couple of mid-level players. That trade would be a no-brainer. Three top prospects? You might swallow, but still pull the trigger. Four top prospects? Now, you’re having some serious flop sweat. Tampa Bay’s entire business model is based on having a steady flow of low-salaried, controllable contracts. Dealing a handful of top prospects for a short-term risk would seriously damage that strategy.
And while Ohtani might make the Rays favorites, it would guarantee nothing. The Astros didn’t win the World Series when they acquired Randy Johnson in 1998. The Brewers didn’t get out of the first round after getting CC Sabathia in 2008. Manny Machado hit .182 in a World Series loss for the Dodgers in 2018, Zack Greinke did not get the Astros over the hump in 2019, and the Padres fell short after midseason trades for Mike Clevinger in 2020 and Juan Soto in 2022.
Ohtani is more valuable than any of those acquisitions, but he still isn’t a sure thing.
So why make the trade?
Because it’s the right time for a big swing. I’ve brought this up before, but the Rays have been one of baseball’s top half-dozen teams in the regular season since 2008, which is an incredible accomplishment for a low-revenue team. They are at the top of the list with the Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox and Braves across 16 seasons.
And yet the difference between the Rays and those other five clubs?
They all have won a World Series in that window.
The Rays have been regular-season warriors, but less impressive in the postseason. Among the 10 teams with the most playoff games since 2008, Tampa Bay’s .452 winning percentage (28-34) is the weakest. The versatility and depth that allows them to thrive in the regular season is not as valued in the sprint of October. They’ve lacked superstars. Difference-makers. They’ve lacked players of Ohtani’s pedigree.
And it’s not like we don’t understand the risk around here. The Bucs finagled their salary cap to keep Tom Brady around for three years, and they’re paying the price this season. The Lightning have made midseason trades to plug specific holes since 2020, and now their roster is stretched incredibly thin.
Of course, a Super Bowl title and two Stanley Cups are a pretty good salve.
I’m not saying the Rays should acquire Ohtani at any cost. There is a player or two in the system who might be considered untouchable. But as valuable as prospects can be for a low-revenue franchise, they don’t always work out. Brent Honeywell was Tampa Bay’s No. 1 prospect in 2018. Ronaldo Hernandez was No. 4 in 2019. Brendan McKay was No. 2 in 2020 and Luis Patino was No. 3 in 2021. Stuff happens, plans go awry.
So maybe we will all live to regret it if the Rays trade for Ohtani and come up short. That’s entirely possible.
But what are the odds the Rays will regret not trading for Ohtani come World Series time?
