TAMPA, Fla. — Twelve weeks later, the journey continues for the Buccaneers. Even as the calendar turns to its final month and the postseason approaches in the distance, the Bucs are a team still lost in their own grandeur.
They have stars and they have panache, but they don’t have a sense of how they are going to win games beyond December. Because it won’t be on Tom Brady’s shoulders and it won’t be due to a franchise scoring record.
It’s the defense, stupid.
Bruce Arians told us this. Said it as far back as February. The Bucs had the makings of a special defense, and he was adamant that Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and Shaquil Barrett were all re-signed in the offseason.
Yet, somehow the Bucs have forgotten who they were supposed to be. They have grown so in love with their offensive potential, they have lost sight of the most judicious path toward victory.
It’s not that the defense is world class. And it’s not that the offense isn’t good. But the way the offense attacks does not complement a defense that can occasionally win games on its own.
Only four defenses in the NFL give up fewer scores per drive than Tampa Bay. Yet the Bucs are not among the top 10 in scoring defense because the offense keeps giving opponents extra drives and opportunities to score.
Tampa Bay’s offense is 28th in the league in time-of-possession per drive. Twenty-eighth! With Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown in the same huddle? That’s a travesty.
It means the Bucs don’t hold the ball long enough, and it means they give it up too often on the wrong side of the field. Tampa Bay’s defense needlessly faces extra possessions and shorter drives because the offense too often goes three-and-out when not hitting 30-yard passes. Not to mention Brady’s interception rate is the highest it has been since 2009.
Look, there’s nothing wrong with having an explosive offense or taking shots down the field.
But relying too much on quick-scoring drives is not terribly efficient. Or very dependable.
Take the Green Bay game, for instance. On their second drive of the third quarter, the Bucs were leading 31-10. Even if they didn’t score, their odds for victory would grow exponentially with a five-minute drive. Instead, the Bucs threw three consecutive incompletions and punted the ball back 24 seconds later.
Now, it didn’t hurt them because the defense was outstanding that day, but how do you justify that drive with a 21-point lead in the second half?
“It’s not that you’re trying to keep the other team’s offense off the field — you’re trying to do what’s best for the team to win football games,” offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich said. “...I’ve got to make sure, to finish this season out, that I do a better job of putting us in positions to just play the way we need to play to win football games. Control the ball, play well and be good in situational football.”
When you factor in sacks and scrambles, the Bucs called more than 40 pass plays a game in 2019. And in some ways, it was justified. They were turning the ball over so routinely that they were chasing teams on the scoreboard nearly every week.
They’re still averaging a little more than 40 pass plays in 2020, but there’s no longer a reason for it. They have a defense capable of keeping the score down so long as the offense doesn’t open the barn doors.
Arians acknowledged this week that the Bucs need to run the ball more. That’s a no-brainer. They also need to run the ball a lot better. They’ve been among the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to an effective running game in the first two quarters. They’ve averaged a league-low 3.4 yards per carry in the first half, and only three teams have attempted fewer rushing plays in those first 30 minutes.
The offensive line appears to have been built more with pass-blocking in mind, but Leftwich says the Bucs are capable of running the ball better.
“I think we’ve got five guys in front that are playing their tails off,” he said. “Whatever we ask them to do, they’ll find a way to get the job done. I’ve just got to do a better job of putting these guys in position to get the job done.”
The NFL steadily has been trending more toward an offensive league. With combined scores reaching nearly 50 points a game, the assumption is you need 25 or 26 points to routinely win. But that’s not necessarily true.
Teams that have scored 21 points or more have won nearly 67 percent of their games this season. That means the average scoring level has been inflated by blowouts, and defense still matters on a game-to-game basis.
So instead of trying to treat the scoreboard like a pinball machine, Tampa Bay’s offense should be more cognizant of controlling an opponent’s scoring opportunities.
Just look at the last time Brady won a Super Bowl. This was only two years ago, and the Patriots ran the ball 478 times that season. The Bucs are on pace for 369 rushes this season.
It’s great that the Bucs have Brady and so many other big-name weapons on offense.
But they need to utilize them as assets, not obligations.
