LEXINGTON, Ky. _ Louisville should beat Kentucky in the annual basketball rivalry Saturday. The Cardinals own the better record, the higher ranking, the more impressive resume, the experience edge. Most every factor points U of L's way. Except one. Desperation.
Saddled with a two-game losing streak obtained last week in Las Vegas, with three losses already on the season slate, Kentucky should be the more desperate team when the No. 19 Wildcats take on the No. 3 Cardinals before what figures to be a packed and highly motivated crowd at Rupp Arena.
"It's just the next game for us," UK coach John Calipari said Friday before trotting out his familiar line. "Unless you win. Then it's a huge game."
For Kentucky, this is a huge game. Or at least as huge a game as you can play in December. No way around it. Calipari's club is 8-3, with one good loss (Ohio State) and two very bad ones (Evansville and Utah). The last time a Calipari team carried four losses into SEC play was 2012-13 and we know how that turned out (NIT).
UK's best win this year, the 69-62 Champions Classic victory over Michigan State, occurred in the season opener way back on Nov. 5 when the Spartans became the first of now five AP No. 1 teams (Kentucky included) that were quickly knocked off the top spot.
Since then, Kentucky's offensive deficiencies have been well-chronicled. At 27.8 percent, the Cats are 323rd in the nation in 3-point shooting. UK's showing on the offensive boards has been lackluster at best. Foul trouble turned center Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery into near no-shows in Las Vegas. And Calipari lamented his team's refusal to pass the ball in the final minutes of its 71-65 loss to Ohio State.
And yet it says here Saturday's key for the home team lies at the other end of the floor. To run Calipari's record to 11-2 against U of L, the Cats have to play much better defense than they did in the desert.
Utah shot 54.8% in the Utes' surprise 69-66 takedown of UK in the Vegas opener. Ohio State shot an even 50 percent. You have to flip the record book all the way back to the 2013-14 season to find the last time Kentucky opponents shot 50% or better in back-to-back games _ LSU 50.8% on Jan. 28, 2014; Missouri 52.9% on Feb. 1, 2014.
"Teams that have shot 50% against us hasn't happened much," Calipari said Friday.
In fact, UK would do well to follow the blueprint Texas Tech followed when the Red Raiders handed Louisville its only loss, 70-57. Coach Chris Beard's team had lost three straight when it hit Madison Square Garden to face the then top-ranked Cards in the Jimmy V Classic. Texas Tech responded by getting all up in the Cardinals defensively, forcing Louisville into 18 turnovers and 34.7% shooting from the floor, including 28.7% the first half.
Repeating that won't be easy. Jordan Nwora, the Cards' 6-foot-7 junior forward, will arguably be the best player on the floor Saturday. The ACC Preseason Player of the Year is averaging 21.2 points per game. U of L center Steven Enoch (11.1 points, 7.3 rebounds) has been more consistent than Richards or Montgomery. Dwayne Sutton and Darius Perry do a little bit of everything, and Ryan McMahon is shooting 46.3% from 3-point range.
"I'll tell you what they really do is defend," said Calipari. "They really guard and give you tough looks. You've had teams score 40 against them."
To be sure, you can make the case Louisville is the better team. On a neutral floor, I'd pick the Cardinals to win and then some. But Saturday's game isn't on a neutral floor. And it comes at a time and a place on the schedule in which Kentucky needs a good win over a good team.
The hunch here is the Cats will find a way to get it.
Make it Kentucky 72, Louisville 69.
