LOUISVILLE, Ky. _ Let's hope Bob Baffert is on time Saturday.
Tuesday he was tardy for the Kentucky Derby post position draw, so much so the four-time Derby winning trainer flat-out missed where Justify, his morning line favorite for Saturday's 144th running, ended up.
"I was in the parking lot; it's hard to get in here," said Baffert of the second floor at Churchill Downs. "I didn't know where to go."
By the time Baffert and wife Jill made it up the escalator to the Aristides Lounge, they heard the announcers talking about Bolt d'Oro drawing the No. 11 post position and Mendelssohn drawing the 14th.
"Jill said, 'I think they're drawing already,'" recounted Baffert. "I walked up and I'm looking at the board and I forgot what colors we're running under, so I'm looking for China Horse (Club) or WinStar. I forgot it was WinStar."
Ah, but WinStar has three horses in this year's Derby _ Justify, Audible and Noble Indy.
"I said, 'There's a WinStar. What's it saying? I hope it's seven. And it was."
Indeed, dubbed the 3-1 morning-line favorite by Churchill oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, Justify will start from the No. 7 post position in the 20-horse field, believed to be one of the strongest in recent memory.
"That didn't make my job tougher," Battaglia said. "I just wanted to get the favorite right. And I think I got the favorite right."
Winner of the Santa Anita Derby last time out, Justify is brilliant but practically a baby _ three wins in three career starts, all as a 3-year-old _ and figures to get plenty of top-flight competition come Saturday.
Mendelssohn, a $3 million yearling who won the UAE Derby by 18 { lengths, is second choice at 5-1. Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon, who like Justify did not race as a 2-year-old, is the third choice at 6-1. Florida Derby winner Audible and Santa Anita Derby runner-up Bolt d'Oro are each 8-1.
Magnum Moon and Audible are half of a formidable four-horse entry for trainer Todd Pletcher, who earned his second Kentucky Derby triumph last year with Always Dreaming. While having four horses in the race is a blessing, for the draw it can be a curse.
"We had four chances to get one, and we had four chances to get 20," said the trainer. "We avoided that."
Smashed against the rail by notoriously large fields, the No. 1 post position hasn't produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986. (Firenze Fire drew the rail on Tuesday.) The far, far outside No. 20 post has produced just one winner _ Big Brown in 2008. (Combatant has the outside post this year.)
Three of Pletcher's quartet ended up in the auxiliary gate (posts No. 15 to 20) with Magnum Moon drawing 16, Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso 18 and Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy 19. Audible drew the No. 5 post, the same position from which Always Dreaming began his victorious run last year.
"Ideally we wouldn't have three in the auxiliary gate," Pletcher said. "After saying that, someone told me that four of the last seven winners have come out of the auxiliary gate."
Animal Kingdom won from the No. 16 post in 2011. I'll Have Another won from No. 19 in 2012. Orb won from No. 15 in 2013. And American Pharoah won from No. 15 in 2015 before going on to become the sport's first Triple Crown winner since 1978.
"I think everybody should be pretty happy with their posts," Baffert said.
"I'm very happy with (our) post," said Chad Brown, trainer of Breeders Cup Juvenile and Blue Grass Stakes winner Good Magic, who drew post No. 6. "Hopefully, it provides us with a good ground-saving trip in that first turn."
When it comes right down to it, however, is the post position draw really that important?
"It is," Brown said. "With certain types of horses, you can really be put at a disadvantage with a poor post. At first glance, I didn't see any really ugly posts for some of the main contenders, but again I'm just focused on our horse and I'm happy where we are."
After all, no matter where you start, what matters is the finish line on Saturday. Don't be late for that.
