Our short national nightmare is over. T.J. Watt returned to Steelers practice Wednesday — without a new contract — and is on track to play Sunday at Buffalo.
If Watt is smart, he’ll sign his new contract before then, even if it’s not “fully guaranteed” beyond the first season. He’ll take the Steelers’ best offer, because it might well make him the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL. Certainly among the top few.
He’ll take it because it’ll come with an eye-popping (and fully guaranteed) signing bonus.
He’ll take because it will come — I’m betting — with enough virtual assurances to put him in Joey Bosa’s neighborhood, which was $78 million “fully guaranteed” and $102 million in overall guarantees when Bosa signed with the Chargers a little more than a year ago.
So even if Watt might not win the battle for the “full” guarantee, he’ll still win. Or at least not lose.
The only way he can lose is by turning his nose at that kind of offer and risking his body for another season as the 16th-highest paid edge rusher in the league, knowing a franchise tag (or two) might be waiting for him.
Do I wish he’d stare down the Steelers and continue the fight? Oh yes. I enjoy that kind of drama. I’m usually on the player’s side, too. I liked it when Mike Wallace went toe-to-toe with the club, and I loved it when Le’Veon Bell dropped the gloves.
Both of those guys wound up with pretty good contracts elsewhere, too. You can look it up.
At the same time, I suppose there is something admirable about the Steelers sticking to their guns on the guaranteed money issue, even if I don’t fully understand their reasoning beyond stubbornness. They got lucky Bell disintegrated upon departure. If he’d flourished elsewhere, while their running game was sinking to unfathomable depths, people might look back on those negotiations differently and wish the Steelers hadn't played hardball.
That stalemate was about guaranteed money, too.
Here’s what I don’t get: If you’re going to virtually guarantee money, basically saying, “Even if you’re hurt badly in Year 1, it’s not like we’re gonna cut you,” why not fully guarantee it? If it’s 99 percent assured, make it 100.
Maybe they’ll surprise me and make an exception for Watt, but I’m guessing they’ll hold strong. Watt blinked Wednesday by ending his “hold in” and jumping into practice. His leverage was withholding his services. It appears he won’t do that, although we’ll only know for sure once he suits up in Buffalo.
Ex-Steelers safety and current ESPN analyst Ryan Clark put it smartly on 93.7 The Fan on Wednesday, saying that while Watt is worth the Steelers changing their policy, it’s probably a pipe dream, based on their history.
“Is he better than James Harrison at his height? They didn’t change it for him,” Clark said. “Is he better than Troy Polamalu at his height? They didn’t change it for him.”
By the time this column is written, Watt might well be posing for one of those sign-on-the-dotted-line, “Look, I’m about to be even richer than I was yesterday!” photo ops from Steelers headquarters.
Mike Tomlin did not mislead us when he said he anticipated Watt would be a full participant in Wednesday’s practice, and I would imagine Tomlin wasn’t bluffing when he said he’s “optimistic” a new deal would be done.
It’s headed in that direction. Watt would be wise to take a minor “L,” take the virtual guarantee, and start counting his cash.
He’ll be counting for a while.
