There is no quantifying what the Penguins have lost since the Stanley Cup Final. No easy stat.
Suffice to say, they are suddenly without some special players. Men of championship pedigree, not easily replaced, whose absence might only be felt next spring.
I'd rather have Marc-Andre Fleury to fall back on than Antti Niemi, and I'd rather have Chris Kunitz than Ryan Reaves for sure. Especially if all it was going to take was a one-year deal.
It won't surprise me if Reaves scores as many goals as Kunitz next season, but regular seasons are not what Kunitz, Nick Bonino and Matt Cullen are all about _ and Cullen is now the key here, at least in terms of retaining one piece of that unique veteran mettle.
My feeling all along was that the Penguins needed to bring back one of those three, and I haven't seen anything that tells me with certainty Cullen is finished. Why wouldn't he just have announced it?
Could it be the Penguins let go of Kunitz so easily because they know Cullen is coming back?
I wonder if Cullen will be lured by the temptation to make history, to win three consecutive Cups, knowing he can still play at a high level (I also wonder if Minnesota is legitimately in the mix).
But even if that isn't the case _ even if this team is weakened in terms of its playoff pedigree _ I keep coming back to the same thing when I stack up a newly forming roster (pending Cullen's decision and a trade for a third-line center) against the rest of the league. I keep coming back to one immutable truth: The Penguins have Sid and Geno, and no one else does.
I hate to simplify like that. The Penguins have a lot of other things going for them. Kris Letang's imminent return, a still-somehow-underrated top four on defense, talented young wingers, including a few poised to inject new life into the lineup at some point next season.
What else?
Patric Hornqvist. Phil Kessel. A 23-year-old goalie (Matt Murray) with two Stanley Cups. Maybe the best coach (Mike Sullivan) in the NHL. Certainly, the best horse-trader in the business in general manager Jim Rutherford.
But it all starts with Sid and Geno. It does for me, anyhow, and I can tell you it starts there with the Penguins' competitors, too. It's in their heads.
The feeling has to be something like, "Man, we could do all the right things here and still not win because they have those two guys."
It's like an NFL team constantly plotting against a great quarterback. You can change your roster. You can watch his roster ebb and flow. You might even beat him some years. But, in the end, if you don't have a quarterback to match him or a way to stifle him, you're probably doomed.
I recently spent an hour talking with former Penguins assistant general manager Tom Fitzgerald about several topics, including the Penguins' drafting philosophy. He spoke of how the Penguins will discard commonly held draft measurements in favor of intangibles.
That is why they landed undersized impact players such as Jake Guentzel and Conor Sheary (whom Fitzgerald signed as an undrafted free agent) and the likes of Bryan Rust in the third round.
Shoot, when Fitzgerald went to visit Rust at Notre Dame, Rust was an unhappy healthy scratch who wasn't near the lightning fast skater he became. But he had a little something special about him. Something not easily quantifiable.
Fitzgerald, now with the New Jersey Devils, finished the draft-and-development part the conversation like this: "We're trying to do the same things here _ minus Crosby and Malkin."
He said it with an exasperated laugh.
What else can you do?
The Penguins will be the favorites again next season mostly because they have a historically unique pair of stars, still in their prime. The "big boys," as Rutherford calls them. The only set of players in league history who each rank in the top 15 in points per game (Crosby sixth, Malkin 14th).
Sure, this franchise has fallen short even with Crosby and Malkin. But over the past 10 years, it has more Stanley Cup final appearances, conference finals appearances, playoff wins and regular-season wins than any other team.
Most important, the Penguins are tied with Chicago for the most Cups in that span and would have had a great chance in 2011 if not for Crosby and Malkin missing the postseason.
So yes, while the Penguins have absorbed some body blows since the final, they are still the favorites. For many reasons, including the possible return of Cullen, that is true. But you gotta start with two.
Sid and Geno.
