When picking games against the spread (ATS), the O/U can sometimes stand for Overvaluing/Underestimating teams. Putting too much stock into favorites and not taking underdogs seriously enough is why Vegas continually wins. While the advice here normally would be to not take too many favorites in one given week, you also shouldn't go against your gut and take a team you don't think can cover just for the sake of picking underdogs. That's the equivalent of not answering "C" three questions in a row on a multiple-choice exam because you think it's a trick.
With six of the lines right around a field goal, there's a strong chance the point spread won't be a factor in about half of the games. This is going to be a favorites week, especially road favorites, so don't be afraid to go chalk. After underdogs ruled the first month-plus, favorites have dominated ATS the last three weeks, going 9-4-1, 8-4-1 and 7-4-2. That 24-12-4 stretch has cut into the lead for the underdogs (67-57-6 for the season).
My most confident picks ATS: Cowboys, Giants, Jets, Lions and Saints. Two games to avoid: Vikings-Redskins and Bengals-Titans.
