As sure things go, sticking a few quid on England to beat Italy at Twickenham is normally right up there. Not quite as secure, perhaps, as players such as Maro Itoje and Owen Farrell going into property investment with their club chairman but not everyone has the luxury of playing for Saracens. Assuming Eddie Jones’s players put down their copies of the Financial Times for long enough, a home win really should be forthcoming.
Betting the house on a one-sided romp, though, may not be entirely wise. Italy have lost their three Six Nations games but they have not been defeated by more than a couple of scores. Wales beat them by 11 points in Rome and then, albeit with a few changes, won against England in Cardiff by eight. While Twickenham has traditionally been a daunting colosseum for the Azzurri, yet to defeat England anywhere in 24 attempts, the visitors are no longer the unfit also-rans of old.
They also now have a reputation to maintain, having tactically bamboozled England in this fixture in 2017 and caused a serious amount of red rose angst. While the element of surprise has now gone, Italy’s head coach, Conor O’Shea, has made it clear his team are not the type to concede defeat before a ball is kicked.
Nor will Italy, if they are smart enough, be overly fazed by England’s power players. Ben Te’o, Manu Tuilagi and Joe Cokanasiga may be collectively huge but how quick are they on the turn? It would be no surprise to see Italy try to play over the top of the giants’ playground: little dinked chips to force the two muscular Mr Ts into scramble mode or diagonal balls towards their own wingers. Winding up England’s props, sniping from the base of the scrum, getting onside with the Australian referee, Nic Berry, kicking more goals than they usually do. If Italy can start well England, not for the first time recently, will have to think their way out of trouble.
O’Shea could do worse than remind his side of Japan’s visit to Twickenham in November when Cokanasiga made his first Test start and England trailed 15-10 at half-time. The hosts rallied to win 35-15 but were made to look distinctly mortal. Their similar mental inflexibility in the final quarter against Wales will also be at the back of Italian minds. That old cliche about not knowing which French team will turn up is in danger of applying to England, too.
Harsh, perhaps, on a team that started the championship at a gallop and remain firmly in contention for the title. But Jones is clearly still experimenting with the World Cup in mind, occasionally taking an iron off the tee while everyone else reaches for a driver. For certain games against certain opponents in certain weather conditions in Japan this heavy-duty, sumo-themed midfield may be just the job. He also knows history will judge him less on Six Nations titles than how far England go this autumn.
With a clever counterattacking full-back in Jayden Hayward and a have-a-go centre in the shape of Michele Campagnaro, however, kicking the ball poorly to Italy may not be the best policy. So far, interestingly, England have carried for fewer metres than anyone in the championship and kicked more than any other team yet still sit atop the try-scoring charts. To call it “Eddie-ball” is to ignore a significant footnote; four of their 11 tries have come from counterattacks and a further two from turnovers. Six of them have also been scored from first-phase ball rather than patient multi-phase buildups.
In summary, England are looking to go hard and fast, with and without the ball, and to offer a physical threat right across the park. Jones also clearly wants to see how Te’o and Tuilagi fit together, while Cokanasiga offers even more in the way of lead piping on the right wing. The latter’s teammates already believe the Bath colossus could become one of the world’s best players. “He has got the world at his feet,” suggested his fellow wing Jonny May. “He is very gifted athletically and he is a huge bloke. He is strong and he’s very, very fast. On top of that you’ve just got to build your game understanding and he is continuing to do that. I am pretty sure he is going to have a pretty decent game.”
May is also back on the ground where he scored a glorious first-half hat-trick against France last month, having subsequently endured a less memorable day in Cardiff. A bang on the head when he was inadvertently struck by Tuilagi – “There’s only one winner when you collide with Manu” – ended his afternoon prematurely although a failed head injury assessment was mostly his own fault. “All the HIAs I’ve done in the past have a list of words like candle, paper, sugar, wagon, finger, lemon. I think I was reeling off words from previous tests that I’d remembered to try and get back out there quickly. The doctor was looking at me a bit funny; I think I was miles off.”
This is not, needless to say, recommended professional sporting etiquette with the risks of double impact syndrome now well chronicled. Sometimes, even so, you wish England had more players like May, prepared to tell it like it is and happy to be different in their pursuit of career fulfilment. The big lesson from Cardiff is that England need to escape the mental straitjacket that has occasionally held them back, not least in this fixture two years ago. “When they did the ruck thing, we didn’t adapt very well,” concedes May. “Against Wales we also failed that test but we’ve passed some recently as well. No matter what Italy present to us, there is going to be a way around it. It’s up to us to find that way on the pitch.”
After a week of off-field ructions, rugby could certainly do with a weekend of pure, unadulterated sporting entertainment. Rarely have the innocent pleasures of an international weekend been so overshadowed by off-field events, with the leading French and English clubs now threatening legal action against World Rugby’s plans for a 12-team nations championship. The day Faz Investments Ltd becomes a hotter pre-match topic than Farrell’s prospects of hoisting a trophy is the day the whole sport needs to start reassessing its priorities.
