Political dynamics are now shifting away from parliament and out to the provinces where flooded communities have set the stage for some hands-on, early electioneering in disguise.
One reason for the absence of the otherwise busy, and at times chaotic, scenes in the parliament chamber is that both Houses have gone into recess.
But observers have predicted that even after parliament reconvenes, MPs will likely find excuses to make frequent trips to their constituencies and get reconnected with voters.
Preparations are underway for many lawmakers and MP hopefuls to generate self-publicity through their participation in social events such as weddings, funerals and monk ordination rites.
The observers said quite a few MPs, including and prominent politicians aspiring to contest the next polls, have capitalised on opportunities during the flood crisis which has affected a swath of provinces mostly in the Central Plains region and the Northeast.
Travelling around in boats, they were seen handing out relief supplies to residents through the windows of their homes half-swallowed by rising floodwaters.
Politicians from three parties have regularly been reported by the media as not being afraid of getting their feet wet.
Ruling Palang Pracharath Party MPs have tagged along with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on his frequent upcountry tours in the past weeks to flood-stricken provinces.
On the back of his flood visits, the government has unveiled multi-billion-baht economic relief packages for people reeling from the devastation caused to their livelihoods by almost two years of the Covid-19 pandemic.
While supporters commended the government for what they billed was timely aid which also serves to deliver a much-needed shot in the economic arm, critics insisted the packages were a covert ploy by the government to give itself an election campaign headstart.
They said the aid, which was insidiously populist in nature, was being financed with the taxpayers' money. In other words, some critics slammed the government for spending someone else's money to score electoral points. In the meantime, the two largest opposition parties, Pheu Thai and Move Forward, have also hit the ground running, apparently convinced the next election could be around the corner.
They have heaped a great deal of political pressure on Gen Prayut and the government in parliament by mounting two censure debates against key ministers this year.
Their political ammunition came largely from what they described as the Prayut administration's utter failure in handling the Covid-19 crisis and a delayed vaccine procurement blamed for driving up preventable caseloads and fatalities.
However, the cabinet ministers survived the no-confidence vote and anti-government protests were dwindling after the pandemic showed signs of ebbing with the country's vaccine stockpile growing. Predictions that Gen Prayut would come under tremendous pressure in the coming months forcing him to call it a day to pave the way for a leadership change or even an election early next year have simply fizzled out, according to observers.
The opposition is now looking at the next potential quagmire for the government -- Gen Prayut's maximum eight-year tenure may be up in August next year although the issue remains open to constitutional interpretation.
The observers agreed the possibility of an early election cannot be ruled out and so the opposition is leaving nothing to chance.
Although Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat has been meeting constituents of late in the Northeast -- a traditional bastion of the main opposition Pheu Thai -- on the pretext of canvassing for upcoming tambon administrative organisation elections, a major win in the local polls for the MFP would secure its footing for the next general election.
However, the next election could end up pitting the MFP against Pheu Thai.
Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has repeatedly said the younger generation should be allowed to run the country. This view is believed to resonate with Pheu Thai, a reincarnation of political parties he previously had close ties with.
The party is understood to be working to increase its appeal to younger voters -- the same pool of voters the MFP is after.
The two parties could also be competing over whose prime ministerial candidates will be a better fit for the top job.
While Mr Pita has declared himself ready to be nominated for the role in the next election, Pheu Thai indicated it was still shopping for candidates.
However, the name of Srettha Thavisin, chief executive of real estate developer Sansiri, has been strongly linked to Pheu Thai although the businessman has not confirmed he will stand as the party's prime ministerial candidate.
Both Mr Pita and Mr Srettha are relatively young with strong backgrounds in business.
Looking at leadership
This week kicked off with a rumour about a leadership change in the Pheu Thai Party, with Maha Sarakham MP Sutin Klungsang and Nan MP Chonlanan Srikaew emerging as potential contenders.
Such talk immediately caught the interest of political observers as it came a few days before the party's general assembly in the northeastern province of Khon Kaen on Thursday.
To the surprise of many, a changing of the guard finally came with Dr Chonlanan elected at the assembly as the new party leader.
The event, according to social media posts, was originally to unveil policy platforms under the "Tomorrow Pheu Thai For a New Life For the People" theme, to elect four new executives to fill vacant spots and to appoint a new candidate selection panel.
Dr Chonlanan was made the new leader after Sompong Amornvivat resigned at the assembly.
Mr Sompong had for some time been under pressure to step down after some party members demanded his full time and active leadership and suggested that he might have run his course.
Mr Sompong, who was re-elected leader in October last year, was said to be experiencing health issues and this raised concerns that he might not have the energy level required to lead the party into an election battle which is speculated to take place sometime next year.
Rumours about a replacement then moved into overdrive; the fact that the new party leader would double as the opposition leader meant Mr Sompong's successor had to be an MP. Such a requirement meant the list of candidates was rather short and Mr Sutin and Dr Chonlanan had been tipped as potential contenders.
Mr Sutin, a four-time MP, was deemed fit considering his role as the chief opposition whip directing the seven opposition parties' activities. He has also won praise during the opposition's grilling of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, especially in censure debates.
Dr Chonlanan, a five-time MP, is also a rising star who can communicate with all factions in the party. He once served as a deputy public health minister and is said to have the backing of several key figures in the party.
Despite the need to bring in fresh faces to rejuvenate the party, it was not deemed fair to question Mr Sompong's commitment and call on him to step aside, according to a Pheu Thai source.
As the leader of the main opposition party, Mr Sompong had also served at the time served as the opposition leader for more than two years and he was seen by some to be up to the job, according to the source.
According to some observers, it is believed the changing of the guard has given clues as to who the party's prime ministerial candidates will be.
Even if the new Pheu Thai leader makes the cut as one of three prime ministerial candidates a party is entitled by law to nominate, there is little chance Mr Sompong will be one, they say.
Deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is regarded as the party's de facto leader, made it loud and clear again in a ClubHouse talk this week, ahead of the Thursday meeting, that the party's prime ministerial candidate must have a strong economic background, which Mr Sompong does not have.
However, Dr Chonlanan does not possess a strong economic background either. At the end of the day, it is likely that the political situation will decide who will be picked as Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate, according to observers.
However, it is not customary that a party leader will automatically stand as a prime ministerial candidate.
"The party leader isn't synonymous with the party's main prime ministerial candidate. Khun Yingluck held no executive position in the party, so the party candidate doesn't have to be a party leader," said the Pheu Thai source.
Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's younger sister, did not lead the Pheu Thai when she was made prime minister.
In the 2019 poll, Pheu Thai put forward three names -- Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, Chadchart Sittipunt and Chaikasem Nitisiri -- as its ministerial candidates. Pol Lt Gen Viroj Pao-in, the then party leader, had been tipped for the third slot but it eventually went to Mr Chaikasem.
Looking for a strong candidate to challenge Gen Prayut is believed to be a daunting task for Pheu Thai with observers agreeing that the new leader's main job is likely to be limited to serving as opposition leader and heading the party election campaign.
