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AAP
AAP
Politics
Poppy Johnston

Jobs data will be big ticket item for rates outlook

Jobless rate figures due this week will be closely watched for signs the labour market is loosening. (Bianca De Marchi/AAP PHOTOS) (AAP)

The demand for workers has proved relentless over the past year and a fresh batch of economic data due this week will reveal how much juice the labour market has left in it.

The official employment numbers for June, to be released on Thursday, could show some signs of weakness as the central bank's lengthy interest rate hiking cycle starts to bite.

The unwavering strength of the labour market has surprised many economists, with the jobless rate tightening again in May to 3.6 per cent from 3.7 per cent in April.

There was also a massive 76,000 jobs added to the economy.

That's despite a string of interest rate hikes since May last year, which is expected to lead to some job losses as businesses cut staff due to lower demand for their offerings.

Forward-looking indicators such as job advertisements and vacancies also point to a looser labour market.

Applications per job are back to pre-pandemic levels, according to data collected by employment marketplace SEEK.

Commonwealth Bank economists expect the jobless rate to inch higher to 3.7 per cent for June, with an additional 15,000 jobs pencilled in.

The data will be a key input into the Reserve Bank of Australia's next interest rate decision on the first Tuesday in August.

The central bank kept interest rates on hold in July and the language on further increases from outgoing governor, Philip Lowe, has lost some potency.

The minutes from the last meeting, due for release on Tuesday, will dig deeper into the July decision and rationale for pausing the rate cycle.

More rate hikes remain on the table but ANZ economists are now expecting the central bank to hang on at 4.1 per cent.

The bank's economists updated their forecasts on Friday and while they agree there's a chance of a hike in August, they also said a pause was more likely given signs of a labour market slowdown, improvements in the global inflation story and evidence of easing household spending.

Other data releases to watch include Westpac's leading index and skilled internet job vacancy numbers, both due on Wednesday.

The RBA governor and treasurer Jim Chalmers are also expected to travel to India on Monday for a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors.

The G20 meeting will be Dr Lowe's last as governor following the decision not to extend his term, which ends in September, and promote current deputy governor Michele Bullock to the top job.

The key topic for the G20 meeting is expected to be the new risk profile for the global economy.

Meanwhile, the Australian share market could open flat on Monday after Wall Street ended mixed on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 113.89 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 34,509.03, the S&P 500 lost 4.62 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 4,505.42 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.87 points, or 0.18 per cent, to 14,113.70.

The fall in the S&P 500 reflected declines in banking stocks after JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo reported higher quarterly profits but said they have had to set aside more money for expected losses from commercial real estate loans.

The quarterly reports unofficially kicked off the second-quarter US earnings season.

Australian share price index futures prices responded by dipping two points to 7264.

On Friday, the Australian benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished up 56.2 points, or 0.78 per cent, at 7,303.1 - a gain of 3.7 per cent for the week.

The broader All Ordinaries rose 61.7 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 7,517.1.

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