To pinpoint when things started to go wrong for the Blackhawks this season we have to go back a ways.
Losing to the Kings earlier this month was a terrible blow given just how hard the Hawks had fought to get back into the Western Conference wild-card race. But that's not it.
Corey Crawford's second season-altering concussion in as many years was devastating but, largely thanks to a resurgent power play, the Hawks went 16-7-3 in the 26 games immediately after his injury. Losing Crawford for nearly three months isn't the reason why the Hawks will miss the playoffs for a second straight season.
The firing of Joel Quenneville and hiring of Jeremy Colliton was certainly the most memorable moment of the season, one that will have repercussions for years to come. That decision likely won't ever stop inflaming those who believe the Hawks did wrong by ending Quenneville's tenure.
Maybe he drags them into the playoffs. Maybe they never go on any kind of run. The coaching change in and of itself is not the reason the Hawks' season will end on April 6.
I've brought you almost to the start of the season but that's still not far back enough. To see when the Hawks put in motion the season that has nearly played out, look to July 1, the first day of free agency.
That's the day the Hawks essentially announced they would be standing pat.
It wasn't hard to look at the 2017-18 Hawks team and know they needed a significant upgrade. The offense was unimpressive, the defense was no longer dominant and the Central Division was too good to do next to nothing. But that's what the Hawks did.
The free-agent class of Cam Ward, Chris Kunitz and Brandon Manning appeared underwhelming at the time and they may have even underperformed expectations. Manning was a disaster from the start and was traded by late December while Kunitz has been a frequent healthy scratch and managed just four goals and five assists in 52 games.
Ward has contributed the most, winning some big starts while Crawford was injured. But his .893 save percentage is the fourth-worst of the 56 goalies who have played at least 21 games this season.
A few days after the start of free agency, general manager Stan Bowman made the trade that sent Marian Hossa's contract to the Coyotes along with Vinnie Hinostroza and Jordan Oesterle for Marcus Kruger, three other players and a 2019 fifth-round pick.
The move created cap space for the future but losing Hinostroza _ who has 15 goals and 21 assists with the Coyotes _ far outweighed the benefit of re-acquiring Kruger, who isn't the same penalty killer he used to be and isn't likely to be re-signed this summer.
This isn't a call for Bowman's head because he didn't sign better players or make any big moves last summer. It was the right decision to not hand out any chunky contracts just for the sake of it, and while it hurts to lose Hinostroza, the Hossa contract had to go.
But that can't happen again. This summer needs to be different, and it probably will be. It's just not at all clear what Bowman will be able to do to make this team better.
The Hawks will have the cap room to find better bottom six forwards, but the pressing issue for this team isn't offense, it's the defense.
It's not hard to figure out some new defensemen need to be brought in, but the same issues that may have stopped Bowman from making any trade deadline deals still exist. Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be 34 and 36 next season, respectively, and they have large contracts with several years remaining and no-movement clauses.
Erik Gustafsson has one more year left at $1.2 million and has had a breakout season. Connor Murphy is steady and on a decent contract. Neither of them should go anywhere. Rookie Henri Jokiharju should be with the Hawks for a full season.
That's five defensemen who the Hawks will either have a very difficult time moving or won't want to move, and I haven't even mentioned top prospect Adam Boqvist yet. As good as Boqvist should be, he'll be 19 next season and teenage blueliners make a lot of mistakes. Even if Boqvist does make the team, which is far from a guarantee, he won't be a difference maker.
One or two of the Hawks' current top five defensemen _ and yes, I'm including Jokiharju in that group _ probably won't be around when next season begins. Again, how Bowman will do that I have no idea.
But change is coming this summer. It has to, or next season is destined to end very much like the last two.
