Labour MPs will give Jeremy Corbyn until next year’s local government elections to prove his leadership credentials if he wins next month, multiple sources within the parliamentary party have told the Guardian.
Corbyn’s surprise leap into pole position has triggered some speculation that Labour MPs will immediately attempt to oust him if he wins in September.
The Islington North MP – the most leftwing of the four candidates – is backed by only around 20 MPs out of the parliamentary party of 232, but his campaign has been set alight by a groundswell of grassroots enthusiasm, many of whom seem to have signed up with the express aim of voting for Corbyn.
One source who works with a senior Labour politician said that there is a concerted move against him among up to 12 MPs, who could resign the whip in the event of a Corbyn victory.
However, other MPs both on and off the record argue that an immediate move against Corbyn is unlikely to be successful and would be counter-productive. More plausible is a move to oust him after next May if the council elections, devolved adminstration elections, and the London mayoral election go badly.
John Mann, the Bassetlaw MP and a supporter of Yvetter Cooper, said the May elections would be the key test for whoever wins. “Corbyn’s problems are bigger but they are not any different than Burnham or Cooper.
“We’ve all got elections next year and we’ve got to do reasonably well. That would mean winning Wales, winning London, winning more police commissioners and doing at least as well in Scotland.
“Any leader who doesn’t do that is in problems and that goes for all of them. If he exceeds that he’s consolidated. People will give him a chance until next May although if he tries to change all the policies then he will not find that straightforward.”
Barry Sheerman, a Liz Kendall-supporting MP, who was the first to suggest a pause in the race, said he had not heard of any coup plot. “I don’t go in for that sort of stuff.
“I am still out there for the sensible candidates and I still think it’s possible to beat Jeremy Corbyn. We’d only consider all our options if that’s not the eventuality.”
One shadow minister on the modernising wing of the party said: “I honestly think it wouldn’t happen, not on an immediate timescale. If Jeremy wins, whoever wins, they are going to receive a huge mandate. If anyone tried to do in whoever was elected, that person would just re-stand and win by an even bigger margin.
“If you think about the role of the trade unions on the national executive committee, if their candidate won and the party tried to disregard it, I can’t possibly see it happening. To be honest [an immediate coup] would be the worst thing. Clearly we have to respect the result.”
Graham Stringer, a Labour MP who has called for a rethink of the contest, said one or two MPs could cause trouble but he doubted there would be a bigger immediate movement against Corbyn.
“I don’t think it’s beyond the bounds of possibility but I think it’s highly unlikely. Nobody has phoned me up and asked me to be a part of anything. But I think there are different organisations who are talking and thinking about the prospect of Jeremy winning.
“I am sure the leading members of Liz [Kendall’s] campaign are thinking hard about what they will do. Plus I think Progress are talking hard about it. But most MPs I’ve talked to are saying let’s wait and see for now.”
Mike Gapes, the MP for Ilford South, said there were a huge number of rumours swirling but he did not think there would be an immediate challenge or resignations.
“I don’t think personally Labour MPs are going to be stupid and destroy the Labour party by leaving the Labour party. I think people should stay in the Labour party and fight for the politics they believe in.
“The big mistake that people made in the early 80s when they left it was condemning it to opposition for a very long time. This might be a temporary aberration and in a few years time we get back to winning elections or rather than trying to feel better or protesting.”
Simon Danczuk, the Rochdale MP, is the only Labour MP who has spoken on the record about the likelihood of a move against Corbyn, saying there would be a plot to oust him beginning on day one, if not before.
The key question for many senior MPs if Corbyn wins will be whether to stand in the shadow cabinet elections that he has promised to bring back. If a number of modernisers stand and win, they would have a big influence on policy but could struggle to observe collective responsibility under their new leader.
The other option is to hang back and see if Corbyn and his supporters from the left wing of the party manage to appeal to the wider electorate at next May’s election, before deciding whether to try to move against him.
Corbyn himself said he wants to unify the parliamentary party, but also delivered a warning to Labour MPs that he would expect them to fall into line with the democratic wishes of the membership.
Speaking to the Independent, Corbyn said he would “absolutely” use support from the membership “to push our agenda up to the parliamentary party and get them to follow that”. MPs in the Corbyn camp are prepared for unrest in the parliamentary party but sceptical about the idea that there would be any immediate move to get rid of him.
One MP who backs Corbyn said: “There is a lot of sound and fury in election but if he were to win he would have a massive mandate. If he were to win, these threats about disunity and all the rest of it, I simply don’t believe it.
“If you’re an MP faced with a quarter of a million party members voting for a leader, surely in the end they are going to come round. There might be a few but not as many as the press are saying. Actually not many people in politics have said the war against Jeremy will continue and given their names to it.”
It is possible, however, that Corbyn could face a legal challenge as to the integrity of his victory if he wins.
The Guardian revealed on Thursday that a Labour committee voted not to undertake extra due diligence on voters in its leadership election last week, against the advice of party lawyers, according to leaked meeting notes obtained by the Guardian. This could make the result more susceptible to judicial review if he wins.
