Jeremy Corbyn’s landslide victory will help ensure the media’s much anticipated “Labour civil war” story is at the very least delayed.
Both Corbynistas and opponents have little interest in opening major hostilities against one and other in the days to come. For their part, the winners intend to make a genuine effort to live up to Corbyn’s own Lincoln quotation of “with malice towards none, with charity for all” in attempting to reach out to as much of the parliamentary Labour party as possible.
Expect to see shadow cabinet job offers not just to loyalists like Jon Trickett and John McDonnell but also more broadly to establishment figures like Emily Thornberry and Angela Eagle: the latter is indeed a logical choice for shadow chancellor given her combined advantages of political smarts, policy mastery and gender, in what would otherwise be a very male top team.
Opponents of the new leadership will bide their time at first. They feel that they have the numbers to move against Corbyn but lack a rationale and they understand that any unjustified attacks will be self-defeating.
Thus, they will watch and wait on both set-piece events like shadow cabinet appointments and party conferences as well as Corbyn’s reaction to international affairs, domestic crises and the like before responding themselves. Both sides are incentivised to play out the opening moves of the Corbyn era more peacefully than either Conservative HQ or the Daily Mail might wish.
What’s more, the Conservatives are likely to launch an initial offensive against Corbyn and then after a few weeks de-escalate in the hope of wounding rather than killing their target.
But bolstering Corbyn’s early hand is his likely national poll bounce. Offering clarity on politics that Labour has for years now given complicated answers to, will be well received by an electorate tired of long, caveated policy statements from politicians.
Rather Corbyn will be to many voters refreshingly direct with a political stance which might be boiled down to “immigration good, spending good, welfare good; war bad”.
This clarity will underscore his authenticity: a vital ingredient for connecting with voters as the electorate will know swiftly who he is and what he stands for. These are hurdles that Ed Miliband struggled to overcome, even after five years in the job.
Expect even voters who disagree with Corbyn’s politics to give him high marks for having the courage of his convictions and clearly stating his beliefs. The risk is that this may create a strange polling situation in which Corbyn enjoys artificially high personal approval ratings as even those with no intention of voting for him tell pollsters they view him positively.
Team Corbyn will be watching carefully for the development of an inverse relationship between his approval numbers and the Labour party’s standing in the polls. If the former remains high at a cost to the latter then that is likely to bring the initial ceasefire between Corbyn loyalists and their opponents to an end.
