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Jeff Seidel

Jeff Seidel: Why Michigan football's Jim Harbaugh is facing a must-win vs. Michigan State on Saturday

This is awesome.

No matter what side you are on.

Here you have Michigan football. Undefeated. Ranked No. 6 in the country. Coached by a guy who took a pay cut to keep coaching his alma mater.

And then you have Michigan State football. Undefeated. Ranked No. 7. Coached by a guy who barely moved in (he has coached just 14 games for MSU) and he is rumored to be a candidate for the LSU job.

The two teams will play on Saturday in East Lansing. And they are both ranked in the top 10? That hasn’t happened since 1964.

For just a second, we should appreciate that. It’s simply awesome. Both teams, both coaches, deserve all kinds of credit for having such a great start to the season.

East Lansing will be the center of the college football world on Saturday. Fox's pregame show is coming, so is ESPN's "College GameDay.”

“Huge game,” Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said on Monday.

No doubt.

For both teams.

“It’s elimination mindset,” Harbaugh said.

That’s an interesting choice of words. Because this will be an elimination game for U-M, one way or the other. The Wolverines have a chance to eliminate all the questions that remain about this team. Or they are gonna get eliminated from the conference race.

A must-win?

There is more pressure on Harbaugh to win this game than MSU's coach Mel Tucker.

Not because the Wolverines are favored to win, according to Vegas odds makers.

No, there is more pressure on Harbaugh because of the circumstances and state of the programs.

Tucker is in Year 2, trying to build something (let’s leave the LSU talk aside for the moment).

But Harbaugh is in Year 7 at Michigan, trying to hold onto his job.

Even though U-M has had a fantastic start to the season, this is as close to a must-win game for Harbaugh as you can get, other than playing against Ohio State. Because the ramifications are enormous.

“It means everything,” linebacker Josh Ross said.

BREAK

Think about everything that hinges on this game.

First, think about everything that could go wrong for the Wolverines.

If Michigan loses Saturday and then drops another to Ohio State (right now, I don't see either U-M or MSU beating the Buckeyes), I don’t care if the Wolverines started the year so well, Harbaugh will be in a precarious position.

Because you can’t keep losing to your rivals. Can you imagine the fallout if Harbaugh loses to Tucker for two straight years? In Tucker's first two years?

Fire up that hot seat in Ann Arbor.

Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines during action against the Northwestern Wildcats Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021 at Michigan Stadium.

Of course, that's just one possibility.

If Michigan can beat MSU, it could push the Wolverines to the next level. Hopes of a conference title will still be alive.

“I think it could really help propel us through the rest of the season," left tackle Ryan Hayes said.

In many ways, this is the real start of the season for Michigan. Everything else was just a prequel, not to mention significantly easier. The Wolverines have the seventh-hardest schedule left in the country, according to Pro Football Focus.

“Huge game,” Harbaugh repeated.

While there is a prevailing narrative about Michigan — how this team has a new culture with better leadership and an influx of younger coaches — there are still plenty of questions about this team.

U-M has beaten two Mid-American schools, needed to force a late, fourth-quarter turnover to beat secure the win over Nebraska and barely held on against Rutgers (0-4 in Big Ten).

Even Michigan’s win at Wisconsin doesn’t look so great now, considering the Badgers are 4-3.

It is fair to wonder if Michigan’s formula — running the ball, rarely passing the ball downfield successfully and relying on a stingy defense — will work against better teams.

You can only play who is on your schedule. Harbaugh should be given credit for getting his team to this point. But the real season begins Saturday for the Wolverines. And all the pressure is on Harbaugh to prove that this change is real.

Because if U-M loses to MSU and Ohio State, what has really changed?

But if U-M can beat the Spartans? A top-10 team on the road? In what promises to be a crazy environment? That would inject even more energy into this surging Michigan program.

“It would give it a boost,” Harbaugh said.

“A big boost?” a reporter asked.

“Yeah, win the conference, win the national championship,” Harbaugh said. “Playoff-mindset at this point.”

This is an amazing opportunity for the Wolverines to climb to the next level.

But on the flip side, it could also be the start of the end.

Either way, something is going to be eliminated.

Either the doubt about this team.

Or dreams of something bigger.

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