SAN DIEGO _ The Washington Nationals plucked Stephen Strasburg out of San Diego State with the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2009, had Bryce Harper fall into their lap in that same slot the following year and chose Anthony Rendon sixth overall in 2011. The next year they began a string of five playoff berths in eight years.
The Houston Astros are looking for a second World Series title in three years after losing at least 106 games from 2011 to 2013. The Cubs had a pair of top-four picks before ending their curse in 2016 and the Royals had seven top-five picks from 2005-12 before their drought came to an end in 2015.
As difficult as it is to believe after a dismal second half in San Diego, we have to ask whether the Padres have been bad enough to take advantage of a landscape that clearly rewards tanking.
When you do it right.
To be clear, the Padres have never stated that was their specific path toward relevance even if a lot of their moves after the 2015 break-up did.
They sent a first-year manager to spring training with four Rule 5 picks in 2016. They sent three more to camp the following spring, and spent significantly more at times on international amateur talent than they did on the active roster. They filled their rotations the last three years with names like Christian Friedrich, Edwin Jackson, Paul Clemens, Jarred Cosart and Jordan Lyles. They squeezed all they could out of the return of Clayton Richard, the last gasp of Jered Weaver's career and Jhoulys Chacin's second act. Most recently, they stuck with the young arms even while adding $444 million to their books the last two years and watching their top prospect ascend to San Diego.
Thing is, as trying as all that has been to sit through on a daily basis, the end result of the Padres' efforts _ at least to date _ hasn't added up to nearly the same draft capital as it did in places like Houston, Washington, Chicago and Kansas City.
The Padres' worst record of the Preller Era (68-94 in 2016) fetched top pitching MacKenzie Gore with the third overall pick in 2017.
They did not own a first-round pick in 2015 because James Shields taketh before he giveth Fernando Tatis Jr. Cal Quantrill was the eighth overall pick the next year. Ryan Weathers was the seventh overall selection in 2018 and CJ Abrams was the sixth pick last summer. They will again pick eighth next June after limping to a 70-92 record this year.
High picks, to be sure.
Just not as high (or maybe as lucky) as the more successful tankers the last few years.
After all, the Nationals had generational talents waiting for them when their MLB-worst records gifted them the first overall picks in back-to-back years and the Cubs' bounty of high selections produced NL MVP Kris Bryant (2nd overall in 2013) and Kyle Schwarber (4th overall in 2014). Even the Astros, despite whiffing with two No. 1 picks (Mark Appel and Brady Aiken), still got Carlos Correa (1st overall in 2013) and Alex Bregman (No. 2 in 2015) high in the draft because of how bad they were for an extended period of time.
How have the Padres done?
We think we know what Gore will become (but we certainly don't know).
Quantrill's ceiling doesn't appear to be that of a franchise-altering talent, nor does that appear to be the case for either of their other first-round picks that year (Hudson Potts and Eric Lauer). Weathers has time to develop even if this first full year underwhelmed. Abrams was the rookie-level Arizona League MVP this first year.
That's a start.
Time will tell if the Padres were bad enough to field a perennial contender for their next manager.
