BRADENTON, Fla. _ Example I: An anonymous scout skewers Josh Bell in a Sports Illustrated preview, calling him, among other things, "a big lump." All lumpy did was hit 37 home runs, drive in 116 runs and elbow his way into the best-hitter-in-baseball discussion during the first half.
Example II: Two years ago, USA Today accused the Pirates of tanking. While you can certainly criticize the moves they've made since 2015 _ paging you Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong _ they wound up winning 82 games in 2018. Missteps? Absolutely. Tanking? Not quite.
Example III: In its 2019 preseason projections, ESPN had the Twins winning 78 games. New Pirates manager Derek Shelton would know better than anyone, considering he was Minnesota's bench coach, how wrong that turned out to be; the Twins amassed 101 victories.
The point: Preseason projections can be woefully inaccurate, especially in baseball, which is why it's probably instructive to take USA Today pegging the Pirates for 102 losses, as the newspaper did last week, with several grains of salt.
USA Today doesn't know. You don't know. Nobody knows. But preseason projections attract attention and generate discussion, so that's what happens.
From this seat, it's always been a bit of a mystery why, in sports, we value year-over-year results so much, like they're inextricably linked; we insist that what happened before will somehow predict the future when, in reality, that's hardly a guarantee. It's sports, the best reality show around.
The Pirates won 69 games a season ago. A large part of that involved a 4-24 stretch, a miserable/downtrodden clubhouse and multiple injuries incurred when the club was well out of contention, the players ready to get the heck home.
So the Pirates played Pablo Reyes, Jake Elmore, Steven Baron and others to play out the string.
And then we're looking at that unsightly number of losses _ 93 _ accounting for the loss of Starling Marte and no notable acquisitions, and we're arriving at the conclusion that the Pirates will simply be much worse than last year, despite some serious culture changes.
Why? That rationale ignores context, in essence how frustration grew like wildfire after that awful stretch and a chasm the side of Montana that had developed between the coaching staff and players, a couple times resulted in scuffles between the two sides.
The Pirates may well stink in 2020. They may lose 100 games, their pitchers may throw batting practice, their fielders may make ungodly errors, and their hitters could conceivably flail at an inordinate amount of pitches. But at this point, it's hardly a guarantee. If you look at the Pirates roster, there are, believe it or not, reasons to think that 60-win projection might be entirely too low.
One of the first ones would be young position players such as Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman and Bell. If those three do what's expected of them, nobody will debate their status as more-than-adequate options for Shelton.
The same can be said for Adam Frazier at second base and even Jacob Stallings behind the plate _ hardly a sexy name when you think of baseball's top catchers, but his numbers put him there. Plus, pitchers love throwing to Stallings.
The Pirates will need a step or two forward taken by Colin Moran or for Ke'Bryan Hayes to quickly evolve into their every-day third baseman, but their infield isn't bad.
They'll sign a center fielder between now and the first full-squad workout. That player could be Kevin Pillar or Cameron Maybin _ again, coupled with Reynolds, not awful. Gregory Polanco has been, and will continue to be, a huge wild card in right. Guillermo Heredia is fine as a fourth outfielder.
The same folks dismissing last year as largely pointless must have ignored the cries for Mitch Keller and his supposedly boundless potential. He never realized it, of course, and the Pirates must complete his development markedly better than they did that of Tyler Glasnow, but again, Keller doesn't stink. He also has a different regime guiding him.
Chris Archer had a 3.29 FIP after the All-Star break last year, equal to that of Zack Greinke. Opposing hitters had an OPS of .703 _ below what Stallings (.708) produced. In a sentence, there were signs.
Trevor Williams was an elite pitcher during the second half of 2018. Steven Brault pitched to a 2.84 ERA during a 12-start stretch in the middle of last season, while there's hardly a question whether Joe Musgrove belongs in a major league rotation.
Again, there could be something there, especially if the bullpen holds up its end of the bargain. Gone are Nick Kingham, Parker Markel, Alex McRae and some of the other pieces of gum and duct tape the Pirates used to fill potholes in 2019.
Into their places will step Edgar Santana, potentially Chad Kuhl and Nick Burdi _ power arms and solid pitchers, though guys you might want to place in bubble wrap. Santana had a 3.26 ERA and had 54 strikeouts against just 12 walks in 66 1/3 innings in 2018.
What if Santana finds that, Burdi stays healthy, and they team with the good version of Richard Rodriguez (19 1/3 scoreless in June and July), a rejuvenated Kyle Crick (2.39 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings in 2018) and Keone Kela (one earned run allowed over his final 24 appearances of 2019)? The Pirates might have a respectable bullpen.
At minimum, the Pirates do have hope, which is more than you'd think if you stuck to the projections.
The biggest work for Shelton will be keeping the attitude positive, keeping Polanco on the field (and from striking out too much) and finding the right center fielder in the coming days. The Pirates also need to locate pitches better, field the baseball, hit for a little more power and stay healthy, because there's not a ton of depth.
But to say that you can count on some sort of projection, especially in baseball, we absolutely should know better than that.
