Officials in Japan have warned of an impending third wave of coronavirus infections amid a rise in cases blamed on colder weather and a government campaign to encourage domestic tourism.
As the prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, vowed to secure enough vaccines to cover Japan’s entire population, the number of daily cases continued to rise after several weeks of staying relatively stable.
Japan reported 1,284 new Covid-19 infections on Tuesday, bringing its total to 111,222 according to a Kyodo news agency tally based on official data. The death toll stood at 1,864.
While Japan has avoided the large number of cases and deaths seen in the UK, US and other countries – with widespread mask wearing often cited as a factor – the decision to press ahead with a heavily subsidised tourism campaign in July appears to have contributed to a new wave of infections.
Cases are not only rising in Tokyo – the epicentre of Japan’s outbreak with more than 33,000 cases – but also in prefectures with large urban populations such as Osaka, Kanagawa and Aichi, whose governor, Hideaki Omura, said last week: “Effectively the third wave has arrived.”
Hokkaido, Japan’s northernmost main island, succeeded in containing a large outbreak after declaring a state of emergency in February, but this week saw daily cases rise above 200 for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Most of the island’s cases have been traced to Sapporo, its biggest city and home to a large nightlife economy.
Total infections in Hokkaido have reached 4,364 with health experts blaming cold weather for driving more people into poorly ventilated buildings and a rise in tourist numbers.
In response, hostess and host bars and clubs have been asked to close between 10pm and 5am and restaurants to stop serving alcohol after 10pm. “I don’t think Hokkaido is the only place that needs countermeasures to cope with lower temperatures and changes in the environment,” Kyodo quoted Hokkaido’s governor, Naomichi Suzuki, as saying.
Japan’s response since the beginning of the pandemic has emphasised mask-wearing and the need to avoid the “three Cs”: closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings – precautions that are harder to take in cold weather.
A government panel of experts has called for new measures to see Japan through the winter, warning that inaction could see a rapid rise in cases.
Speaking last week after the number of nationwide cases topped 1,000 for the first time in more than two months, Suga told senior party figures: “We need to deal with the situation with maximum vigilance.”
The chief cabinet secretary, Katsunobu Kato, raised the possibility that Hokkaido could be removed from Go To Travel, a ¥1.7tn (US$16bn) campaign that provides generous food, travel and accommodation subsidies for domestic tourists in an attempt to boost the world’s third-biggest economy.
But he was later contradicted by Suga, who said: “We’re monitoring the situation and we will carry out the campaign, taking into account the views of experts. Currently there are no plans to exclude Hokkaido from the programme.”
The campaign was launched in the early summer – initially without Tokyo’s involvement – despite warnings that a significant increase in domestic travel could spread the virus to parts of the country that had been relatively unaffected.
Kentaro Iwata, a specialist in infectious diseases at Kobe University hospital, speculated that the recent rise in infections was “a combination of the Go To campaign, complacency among people and politicians, with the additional potential factor of lower temperatures”.
“We need to be determined in lowering the infection rate,” Iwata told the Guardian, adding that he expected a rise in serious cases to “come later”.
“Sporadic measures will only prolong the problem. Decreasing opportunities to get infected is the simplest way to lower the number of cases, so politicians need to offer direct [financial] support to people who need it, not a travel campaign that is helping to spread the disease.”
