The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito have disagreed over when to dissolve the House of Representatives for a general election.
While some LDP members are calling for dissolution before the end of the year, Komeito opposes the idea. With a reshuffle of LDP executives and Cabinet members scheduled for autumn, behind-the-scenes negotiations are likely intensifying between the parties.
-- Permanent battlefield
LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai said at a press conference Tuesday, "It's not even in the back of my mind [that the lower house is] dissolved before the end of the year." However, he also said: "We have to be prepared with finely honed sense that the lower house can be dissolved at any time. This is the responsibility of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party."
Hiroshige Seko, secretary general for the LDP in the House of Councillors, said at a press conference, "It is more important than anything else to be prepared to be dissolved at any time."
Speculation that the lower house will be dissolved before the end of the year spread within the LDP after the regular Diet session ended on June 17.
The party's Diet Affairs Committee Chairperson Hiroshi Moriyama said at a party meeting in Kagoshima on Saturday, "There may be a lower house election this year."
Abe's close ally, Akira Amari, the chairperson of LDP's Research Commission on the Tax System, said in an interview with Jiji Press on June 18, "The possibility of [dissolution] together with economic stimulus measures after autumn is not zero."
Behind those remarks is the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, which had been scheduled for July-September. The postponement apparently gave more time to the political schedule for the latter half of this year. In the second supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, a reserve fund of 10 trillion yen has been secured, and a senior member of the Diet Affairs Committee said, "It had become unnecessary to make a supplementary budget within the rest of the year any more."
Furthermore, the LDP intends to use the opportunity to maintain its centripetal force in the face of adverse circumstances, such as the alleged violation of the Public Offices Election Law by former Justice Minister Katsuyuki Kawai and his wife Anri, both of whom are Diet members.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on an online TV program Saturday, "Politicians live in a kind of war and are always aware of dissolution."
Although the Cabinet's approval rating continues to fall, the prime minister remains bullish. After Kawai and his wife were arrested, the prime minister apparently told those around him: "What's important in the election is the party's approval rating. The LDP's approval rating hasn't changed."
-- Narrow choice
Komeito, on the other hand, is opposed to dissolving the lower house before the end of the year and has recently conveyed its position to the Prime Minister's Office.
Komeito's power base, religious organization Soka Gakkai, has been virtually inactive due to the novel coronavirus epidemic, and under the circumstances the party is "far from ready for the election," according to a party executive.
Komeito leader Natsuo Yamaguchi said at a press conference Tuesday, "The priority for politics now is to establish a system that will prevent the next wave [of the epidemic]."
In fact, the virus is the most uncertain factor in dissolving the lower house within this year. The second wave of infections is feared to most likely come in the autumn and into the end of the year. If the lower house is dissolved in the face of efforts to contain the coronavirus, the administration may face severe criticism.
But, Komeito places importance on the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election scheduled for next summer and is reluctant to dissolve the lower house in the first half of next year, too.
Abe's term as LDP party president expires in September next year. If he misses the chance to dissolve the lower house in a period from early next year to before the Olympics, he will face the stark choice of either dissolving it "by force" before his term expires or letting the next party president dissolve it.
How much Komeito's intentions should be respected is related to how to treat Nikai and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, both of whom have strong ties with Komeito, in a reshuffle of LDP executives and Cabinet members. Abe will have to make a difficult decision on whether to allow the two to remain in office, among other issues.
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