As Japan's new cases of novel coronavirus infection continue to set record highs, there is mounting concern that the nation's hospitals could soon struggle to provide enough beds for these patients.
"We are seeing a surge in new infections," Mutsuko Fujii, head of the Osaka prefectural government's health and medical department, said Nov. 18 at a meeting held by a panel of experts devising measures to combat the virus. "We've never seen numbers this high before, and the situation is extremely serious."
Osaka Prefecture has recorded at least 250 new cases for several consecutive days and the number of new infections per 100,000 people in the prefecture during the most recent week was 1.6 times higher than that of the week earlier. Case numbers are growing at a faster rate than places such as Hokkaido and the Tokyo metropolitan area.
As of Nov. 17, 55.3% of hospital beds secured for coronavirus patients in Osaka were occupied. According to calculations the prefectural government provided at the panel meeting, if the number of new infections continues to climb by 1.5-fold from the previous week, the prefecture could run out of beds available for inpatients with mild symptoms on Dec. 3.
The prefectural government also forecast it could secure, as of Nov. 17, a maximum of 1,405 hospital beds during peak periods. It is calling on medical institutions to set aside more beds for use by coronavirus patients.
Hokkaido's utilization rate of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients stood at 72% on Nov. 17, a sharp increase from 47% a week earlier.
"Hokkaido has many coronavirus cases, even when looking at numbers for the whole country," a Hokkaido government official said. "The situation is becoming acute, and we're asking Hokkaido residents to continue taking precautions to stop the virus from spreading."
On Nov. 6, an infection cluster was detected at Yoshida Hospital in Asahikawa, Hokkaido. As of Nov. 18, 66 patients and staff at this hospital had contracted the virus. They would fill almost 70% of the about 100 hospital beds in Asahikawa reserved for treating coronavirus patients, adding to the strain on the city's medical facilities.
Hospital bed availability varies by region, but there is growing alarm about recent developments.
"We are at a critical moment that will determine whether we can protect our medical system," Japan Medical Association President Toshio Nakagawa said at a press conference Nov. 18.
Compared with the second wave of infections that emerged in summer, this latest surge is affecting a growing number of middle-aged and elderly people, who are more likely to suffer serious health problems due to the virus. This situation demands an abundance of caution.
This trend is evident in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Of confirmed cases in Tokyo between Aug. 1 and 7, 71% were among people in their 30s and under, 20% were in their 40s or 50s, and just 9% were 60 and over. However, between Nov. 11 and 17, people in their 30s and under accounted for 53% of all cases, while 30% were in their 40s or 50s and 17% were 60 and over. Osaka Prefecture is reporting a similar trend.
Advances in medical treatments resulted in reducing the proportion of coronavirus patients who developed serious health issues in all age brackets in the June-August period compared with the January-April period.
According to a Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry advisory body, this figure dropped from 3.4% to 0.5% for patients in their 40s, and from 26.2% to 8.4% for those in their 70s. Despite these figures, care must still be taken to ensure elderly people do not become infected.
"It was anticipated that if people move about, coronavirus infections would spread," said University of Tokyo Prof. Shigeto Yonemura, who is a doctor and a legal expert. "If Japan isn't going to stop social and economic activities, taking steps such as increasing the number of staff at public health centers and medical institutions that treat coronavirus patients will be vital. The government must deliver consistent messaging so people don't lose trust in the government's measures against the coronavirus."
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