A government subcommittee of experts on novel coronavirus countermeasures is expected to present eight metrics for determining the severity of infections -- such as the number of patients and how many hospital beds are available -- in its draft infection index, The Yomiuri Shimbun has learned.
The index is expected to be utilized by prefectural governors to come up with effective measures that would prevent the collapse of medical services.
The subcommittee plans to finalize the metrics before making an official decision at its next meeting to be held as early as this week.
The panel divided infection spread into four stages: sporadic, gradual increase, rapid increase and explosion. Areas like Tokyo and Osaka Prefecture are in the second stage now.
The proposed metrics are measured in eight categories across three fields: medical services, monitoring and public health.
For example, as an indicator that medical services are heading toward the third stage, the panel cited the total number of patients either hospitalized or treated at home or in relevant facilities amounting to "50 or more per 100,000 people." That figure would be equivalent to about 7,000 in Tokyo and 4,500 in Osaka.
In terms of monitoring, the level of infection is said to be moving toward either the third or fourth stage if the rate of positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests hits 10%. As for public health, the level is approaching those stages if the percentage of people whose infection routes are unknown reaches 50%.
Some panel members say the declaration of a state of emergency should be reissued if an explosive growth of infections -- or the fourth stage -- is imminent.
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