WASHINGTON -- Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has expressed his desire to stay in power after the next House of Representatives election, leading him to take a cautious stance about an early dissolution of the Diet.
Suga on Friday told reporters accompanying him on a visit to the United States that "politicians won't be able to keep power if they dissolve [the lower house] but don't win" in the subsequent election.
As a result of his caution, speculation has grown among members of the ruling parties that Suga is seeking to dissolve the lower house in September and hold an election for president of the Liberal Democratic Party at a later date.
Suga's term as LDP president will expire at the end of September. Asked by the reporters whether he would seek a second term, Suga said, "I think there would be many conditions involved [to keep power], but I strongly feel that [U.S. President Joe Biden] is a person I want to continue to work with."
These remarks indicated Suga's intention to continue to serve as prime minister, by surviving both the next lower house election and the LDP leadership race. When to dissolve the lower house will be the most important factor for Suga to stay in power.
Suga stressed that his top priority for the time being is getting the novel coronavirus pandemic under control.
Lower house members' terms will end on Oct. 21. The prime minister intends to cautiously explore the timing of a lower house dissolution, saying, "I want to think it over carefully, keeping in mind the time constraints involved."
Within the LDP, it has long been speculated that the dissolution will occur close to the end of the lower house terms. If Suga pushes the dissolution through amid the ongoing pandemic, that could bring a fierce backlash against him.
Many pundits believe it would be also difficult to dissolve the lower house during the period from July 23 to Sept. 5, when the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics will be underway.
"This means dissolution is highly likely to come in September, when vaccinations have progressed," said a senior member of the faction led by LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai. "The presidential election will probably be held after that."
If Suga decides to dissolve the lower house in September, he is highly likely to postpone the LDP leadership race until after the lower house election. Suga has no faction of his own, so he does not have a solid base within the party.
The approval rating for Suga's Cabinet remains far from a V-shaped recovery, due to dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the pandemic. That could trigger moves to remove Suga from power in the party presidential race before the lower house election is held.
"If he runs in the presidential race after winning in the lower house election, he certainly won't face problems," a senior LDP member said of Suga.
However, given that the pandemic will not necessarily be under control by autumn, there is no guarantee that things will go according to Suga's envisaged scenario. Another obstacle is that the negative impression of a "forced dissolution" will intensify if the dissolution comes closer to the end of the term for lower house members in October.
Asked by the reporters whether a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet would spur a dissolution, Suga said, "Basically, I think so."
The opposition parties are considering submitting a no-confidence motion before the current Diet session ends on June 16. If such a motion is submitted toward the end of the Diet session, a lower house election could be held on the same day as the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election -- July 4. The prime minister floated the possibility of a summer dissolution of the lower house apparently out of his desire to keep control of the situation.
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