For many years one of the staples of family entertainment on television was the art of plate spinning. The most impressive example, according to the Guinness Book of Records was in Bangkok in 1996 when David Spathaky had 108 plates spinning simultaneously. In rugby union the equivalent is a weekend of World Cup quarter-finals, with 184 players all frantically looking to keep their childhood dreams intact.
Every four years it is the same: one false move and everything comes crashing down. Knockout footy, to coin a phrase set to reverberate across Japan this week, is different for precisely that reason. Keep calm and carry on rucking? Aside from keeping the referee onside, executing basic skills precisely, coping with the screeching external pressure, outwitting your opponent tactically and silencing the doubting chimp on your shoulder, there is nothing to it.
It is harder still when the tackle height margins are so desperately fine and fitness levels have increased across the board. Which is why Saturday and Sunday could just be rugby’s greatest showcase. If you had to pick four top games with which to entice a non-rugby audience you would opt for the looming quartet. Japan’s stunning pool wins will take some eclipsing but what if those are just the start?
Do not assume the bookmakers’ favourites – England, New Zealand, South Africa and Wales – will all inevitably cruise into the semi-finals. Remember 2007, when the All Blacks lost to France, while England, even to their own slight surprise, flattened a confident Australia? What about Ireland’s galloping Gordon Hamilton almost ambushing the Wallabies in 1991? There is no such thing as a racing certainty at this juncture.
The continuing adventures of Japan, suddenly everyone’s favourite team, are the perfect case study. On Sunday they will be back in the ring with the giants of South Africa in a big-budget sequel to their famous 2015 pool match in Brighton. It says everything about the impact made by Jamie Joseph’s side that the rematch is the weekend’s hottest ticket, with Scotland’s coach, Gregor Townsend, among those convinced it will be no walkover.
South Africa may be strong, unyielding and deliberate but, as New Zealand showed on the opening weekend, nor are they immune to teams who play at pace, offload brilliantly and show no fear with and without the ball. Call it bullet-train rugby: blink and they are gone. And even before a ball is kicked, Japan have the most inspirational captain at this World Cup. If Superman played rugby he would perform like Michael Leitch; any team in the world would want the all-action flanker on their side. To watch him and his colleagues jog off the field in unison, outstretched hands on each other’s shoulders, is to understand just how deep Japan’s team spirit now runs.
Then there is Ireland against New Zealand, a career-defining moment for two of the modern era’s most successful gurus. For either Joe Schmidt or Steve Hansen, who will both be departing their roles after this tournament, the exit door is about to open rather sooner than their respective screenwriters would like.
“I’m not worrying about my All Black career … I’m more concerned we earn the right to come back on Monday,” Hansen said, fully aware sides who get ahead of themselves go home earlier than expected. “A lot of people are getting caught up in the past. It’s about what is happening on Saturday that is going to matter.”
Maybe but both sides know exactly what happened last time the teams met in Dublin 11 months ago.
Ireland showed signs of belated life against Samoa and will be cussed at the very least. Shutting New Zealand down at source is hard but they have managed it before. And who would dare underestimate the desire of Rory Best and his forwards when backed into a corner? “They are a quality side, they’ve been number one this year and our last three results against them are loss, win, loss so there won’t be any complacency,” Hansen said.
It will be the same with Wales, who trailed France 16-0 at half-time on the last occasion the sides met in tournament play, in this year’s Six Nations. On that occasion they stormed back to win but if Jonathan Davies and Dan Biggar are not 100% fit even a wildly inconsistent France, who have their own injury problems, cannot be written off.
“You have the feeling something is happening in this group,” the scrum-half Baptiste Serin said. “We don’t want to be in the quarter-finals just for the sake of it. We want to find a way of getting to the semis.”
And lastly, for richer or poorer, there is England and their old friends Australia. Their respective coaches, Eddie Jones and Michael Cheika, can virtually finish each others’ sentences in weeks such as this one. “Looking backwards is only going to give you a sore neck,” said Cheika, when someone brought up England’s six-game winning streak over the Wallabies.
If England lose on Saturday, he is also keenly aware that Jones will cop it from both hemispheres. Unlikely, perhaps, but it is 12 years since England last kept all their World Cup plates spinning at Australia’s expense. Roll on the weekend, mate.
