JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is still pessimistic about the Trump economy as jobs reports show a stagnating hiring market and inflation continues to keep prices high in many sectors.
In a pair of interviews, the head of the U.S.’s largest bank explained that he saw the American economy “weakening” and believed that the full impact from Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and flat 10 percent rate on all imports is still coming down the road.
“[We] don’t know yet. People are expecting these things to happen right away. But actually, a lot of [the effects of tariffs] haven’t happened [yet],” Dimon explained on the Office Hours: Business Edition podcast.
He continued: "I think you better be careful on that one (on the economic impact on the U.S.) because some of these things have long cycles.”
In a separate appearance on CNBC, Dimon wouldn’t put a guarantee on his prediction from April that a recession was on the way — but he still said the economy was on a downward trend.
“I think the economy is weakening,” he said. “Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”
Dimon went on to say that he believed consumer confidence was falling, and that even an expected cutting of interest rates by the Federal Reserve at its meeting next month may not have the White House’s desired effect: a surge of economic activity.
“There’s a lot of different factors in the economy right now,” he said. “We just have to wait and see.”
Dimon’s earlier prediction of a recession followed the initial imposition of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. Those duties were initially delayed by 90 days, then saw enforcement lag another month. Some U.S. trading partners have made agreements with the president to cut down some of those individual tariff rates, but many remain in place.
A U.S.-China trade deal remains up in the air after the U.S. president extended a tariffs “truce” with China for 90 days in August. Rates of 34 percent on Chinese imports are still due to go into effect in November.
Dimon is one of many geopolitical experts who have also warned that the long-term effects of Trump’s tariffs go beyond simpler effects like price hikes on American consumers.
In April, as Trump was launching his tariff agenda in earnest, the JPMorgan CEO warned that America risked weakening its own alliances and trade relationships, while providing incentives for U.S. trade partners to seek deeper partnerships with countries such as Russia and China.
Some of Dimon’s warnings seem to be coming true already, as Beijing is now urging the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to update the bloc’s trade agreement with China before the end of the year and is also reported to be pursuing closer economic ties with Saudi Arabia, another U.S. partner in the Middle East.
One positive sign for Trump emerged Tuesday as the Labor Department reported that the U.S. producer price index had dropped in August after rising in July, a sign that inflationary pressures remained stable or eased slightly. But a survey from LendingTree found that a third of all U.S. businesses still expect prices to rise over the last quarter of the year.
LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst cited both tariff concerns and the decreased consumer confidence that Dimon identified as reasons.
“Tariffs are likely playing a significant role in these concerns, but so is the overall sense of uncertainty that remains in the American economy,” read the company’s report.
“There are so many unknowns that it’s nearly impossible to predict what the next few weeks will look like, much less six months from now,” it continued. “However, this report makes it clear many businesses see continued rising prices ahead.”
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