ST. LOUIS _ Performance won't mean as much Saturday and Sunday to manager Joe Maddon as much as the physical condition of Jon Lester and, more specifically, Jake Arrieta.
"You need to see health, and then after that make your decisions," Maddon said Thursday night regarding the shape of the Cubs rotation for their best-of-five National League Division Series against the Nationals.
The biggest question surrounds Arrieta, who lasted only three innings Tuesday and admitted that he has had to alter his delivery to compensate for a right hamstring that isn't fully healed after he missed 2{ weeks because of a Grade 1 strain suffered Sept. 4.
"I do believe watching him play Sunday will be important to find out his health," Maddon said. "And I think Jake will be very honest with us. We'll be able to see it from the dugout, and you'll be able to make your conclusions at that point.
"This guy is so well-tuned and in shape and worked so darn hard, and you anticipate a quick healing process. We'll see. We'll find out."
Despite a 2-0 record in the 2016 World Series, Arrieta's health likely will rule him out of consideration to start in either of the first two games of the division series, especially since the Game 1 starter would be in line to pitch a possible Game 5. After Tuesday's brief outing, Arrieta believed the time before and after Sunday's start would allow him more time to regain strength for the playoffs.
Maddon acknowledged John Lackey remains an option if it's determined Arrieta can't pitch effectively because of his leg.
"Sure, that's part of it," Maddon said. "We have to play this all the way through and make sure these guys are healthy, and then you make your best decisions."
Lackey seems assured at least of a spot on the postseason roster because of the condition Arrieta and Lester, who was on the disabled list for the second half of August because of left shoulder fatigue. Lester pitched six innings of one-run ball in his last start Monday against the Cardinals, though he has been inconsistent since he returned.
Lester and fellow left-hander Jose Quintana match up well against the Nationals' formidable left-handed hitters in their lineup.
"We first have to figure out how many pitchers and position players to deal with and the length of the bullpen," Maddon said.
The roster doesn't need to be finalized until the morning of the first game on Oct. 6.
For the second time in less than a week, Maddon didn't rule out the possibility of Kyle Hendricks starting Game 1.
"He might be pitching as well as anybody in the National League right now," Maddon said before Hendrick's start Thursday night against the Cardinals. "That's all I meant by it. I didn't mean anything to run more deeply into it."
In his postseason tuneup, Hendricks struck out nine in five shutout innings.
Since Hendricks returned from the disabled list on July 24, Maddon has noticed his velocity has climbed about 6 mph to his normal fastball speed of 89 mph, thus allowing his curveball and changeup to become more effective.
"That's why he's pitching so deeply into games right now," Maddon said. "We'll make up our minds, put it all down on paper, look at the other team and try to break it down, what's the best route to take and we'll take that.
"Watching (Hendricks), even last year in a Cy Young (caliber) year, I think he's pitching as well now as he did at any time last year."
