Jackson Carlaw’s plan as Scottish Tory leader was straightforward.
He wanted to lead his party into the next election and deprive the pro-independence parties of their majority.
He never believed he would be First Minister and would have settled for heading off indyref2.
The reality of his brief six month tenure proved to be very different.
Polling showed the SNP were on course for an outright majority and support for independence hit 54%. UK Government ministers were getting jittery.
A presentation was also reportedly made last week to Downing Street which included very unfavorable internal polling.
Carlaw, as even his supporters would concede, has a thin skin and reacts badly to criticism. As a loyal party man, he finds internal carping particularly hurtful.
Sources say party members were accusing Carlaw of not standing up to Sturgeon and he felt under pressure.
The loss of talented colleagues like MSP Adam Tomkins, and spin doctors Eddie Barnes and Adam Morris, was also a worrying sign. His resignation was nonetheless a shock.
The broader context of Carlaw’s resignation is the disarray the pro-Union side finds itself in nine months before the Holyrood election.
The Scottish Tories, the supposed standard bearers of unionism, find themselves rudderless, while a growing number of figures are calling on “invisible” Richard Leonard to stand down as Labour leader.
Sturgeon’s poll ratings, by contrast, are soaring and her party is looking forward to its best ever Holyrood election result next year.
Independence was rejected by voters in 2014, but six years on the Union has never been in greater peril.
