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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Matthew Weaver, Claire Phipps and Jon Henley

Italy referendum: 'Period of uncertainty' predicted after Matteo Renzi's defeat – as it happened

Matteo Renzi announces his resignation as Italian prime minister

Closing summary

Here’s a roundup of the latest on Italy’s referendum and its aftermath:

  • Matteo Renzi is preparing to formally submit his resignation after voters dismissed his plans for constitutional reform in a crushing referendum that saw close to 60% of voters opt for “no”. He said “My experience in government ends here … I did all I could to bring this to victory. Renzi has called a cabinet meeting for 1730 GMT, after which he said he would tender his resignation.
  • The margin of the rejection– close to 20 percentage points – was much wider than expected. On a high turnout of 65.47%, 59.11% of voters chose no; 40.89% went for yes. Overseas voters bucked the trend, voting overwhelmingly (64.7%) for yes.
  • The vote prompted the euro to initially fall to a 20-month low against the dollar and then bounce back to its highest level since mid-November. But shares in Italian banks have tumbled.
  • Shares in the world’s oldest bank - Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena - fell sharply. Concerns about MPS were raised during the stress tests on the sector by the European Banking Authority in July, when the bank was ranked as the weakest of the 51 European institutions subjected to the annual assessment.
  • France’s far right leader Marine Le Pen has welcomed the Italian referendum as an anti-austerity signal to France. She said: “After the Greek referendum, after Brexit, this Italian No adds a new people to the list of those who would like to turn their backs on absurd European policies which are plunging the continent into poverty.”
  • Italy might have to spend public money to rescue some of its banks, according to European Central Bank governing council member Ewald Nowotny. “The difference between Italy and other states such as Germany and Austria is that, until now, in Italy there has not been any significant state aid or state takeovers (of banks),” he said.
  • Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, admitted that the result was a “concern’. But finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, says Italy should continue with Renzi’s economic policies. “Italy has to continue the path that Prime Minister Renzi has taken economically and politically”, he said.
  • The referendum – which was on questions of constitutional reform not the euro or EU – was nonetheless seized upon by populist groups including the Five Star movement and the anti-immigration Northern League (Lega Nord), which called for snap elections.
  • Matteo Salvini, head of Italy’s far right Northern League party, has hailed the referendum result as Italy’s ‘liberation day’ from the Renzi government. He said it sent a message to Europe.
  • European commissioners and finance ministers put a brave face on the result. Pierre Moscovici, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, said he had “full confidence in Italian authorities to manage this situation”. French Finance Minister Michel Sapin, said: “The referendum wasn’t about Europe.”
  • Italy’s president Sergio Mattarella is thought unlikely to call fresh elections but is instead expected to appoint a caretaker prime minister. Finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan, culture minister Dario Franceschini and Senate president Pietro Grasso are the names most commonly touted.

Updated

Renzi has called a cabinet meeting for 1730 GMT, after which he said he would tender his resignation.

Reuters looks at the possible contenders to succeed him and what happens next:

Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, who has pulled out of meetings with European finance ministers in Brussels this week, is viewed as a possible candidate to replace Renzi.

Senate President Pietro Grasso and Transport Minister Graziano Delrio have also been tipped as possible successors.


It is unclear if Renzi will have enough support in his Democratic Party (PD) to remain party leader - a role that could give him a say in who becomes the next prime minister.

President Sergio Mattarella will consult with party leaders before naming a new prime minister - the fourth successive head of government to be appointed without an electoral mandate, a fact that underscores the fragility of Italy’s political system.

In the meantime, Renzi would stay on as caretaker.


The new prime minister, who will need the backing of Renzi’s PD to take office, will have to draw up a new electoral law, with the Five Star Movement urging a swift deal to open the way for elections in early 2017, a year ahead of schedule.

“From tomorrow, we will start work on putting together 5-Star’s future programme and the team of people that will make up a future government,” said Luigi Di Maio, tipped to be the group’s prime ministerial candidate.

Opinion polls put 5-Star neck-and-neck with the PD.

Shares in Italian banks are significantly down notes analyst and commentator Ferdi Giugliano.

Pier Carlo Padoan
Pier Carlo Padoan Photograph: Andreas Solaro/AFP/Getty Images

Pier Carlo Padoan, Italy’s finance minister and leading contender to replace Renzi, has told European finance leaders that Italy cannot make commitments for extra funds for the 2017 budget.

He cited the “political situation” in Italy, according Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the group of 19 countries that use the euro.

Earlier Dijsselbloem said there is no need for “emergency steps” after Italian voters rejected constitutional reforms.

He told reporters in Brussels that “it doesn’t really change the situation economically in Italy or in the Italian banks. It doesn’t seem to require any emergency steps.”

Stephanie Kirchgaessner picks out some interesting variations in the way Italians living abroad voted out:

MPS shares fall

Shares in the world’s oldest bank - Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena - have fallen after the vote, writes the Guardian’s city editor Jill Treanor.

Investors in MPS, which was founded in 1472, fear the resignation of Matteo Renzi as prime minister will affect attempts to clinch a €5bn (£4.2bn) lifeline from investors by the end of the year. The shares plunged 10% before recovering some losses. They were trading 3% lower at around midday in London.

Concerns about MPS were raised during the stress tests on the sector by the European Banking Authority in July, when the bank was ranked as the weakest of the 51 European institutions subjected to the annual assessment.

A consortium led by JP Morgan, the Wall Street investment bank, is reportedly meeting to discuss the fundraising. There were also reports that Monte dei Paschi bank officials will meet the Qatar Investment Authority – the gulf state’s sovereign wealth fund – to try to secure backing from a key investor.

Even so, there are expectations that the Italian government will need to prop up the bank, despite new EU rules which prevent state aid unless bondholders have been forced to take losses.

Alberto Chiandetti, a manager at the Fidelity European Opportunities and Fidelity Funds Italy investment funds, said: “The focus is on whether an anchor investor will materialise or not. If not, Monte Paschi needs a plan B and in that scenario, bank shares are likely to suffer most. We should know [on Monday] whether such an anchor investor exists for Monte Paschi.”

The prospects of a capital injection for MPS being found entirely from private investors appeared to be receding, analysts said. “I think a precautionary recapitalisation is ultimately still probable as a private sector-only solution is now highly unlikely to work,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Eurasia Group.

Updated

Our former Paris correspondent Lizzy Davies has a better translation of Le Pen’s reaction to the Italian referendum.

Welcoming the “huge No” to Renzi’s proposals, Le Pen said it was “a No to the absurd policy of ultra-austerity which Matteo Renzi pursued, a policy wanted by the European Union and imposed on Italy.”

The “austerity purge” in Italy had led to no economic gain, Le Pen claimed, using the referendum result to attack her opponents in France, particularly François Fillon, the right’s Thatcherite presidential candidate, who Le Pen said would like to “speed up” austerity.

She added: “After the Greek referendum, after Brexit, this Italian No adds a new people to the list of those who would like to turn their backs on absurd European policies which are plunging the continent into poverty. More broadly - and the impressive growth of the [far-right] Freedom Party in Austria shows just this - the global rejection of all the European Union’s policies, its economic and migration ones in particular, is speeding up on the continent.

“It is time that France chose someone capable of being the leader of a Europe of nations and freedoms, able to coalesce the energy of all countries which reject an austerity-led, free trade-supporting and pro-immigration political model.”

Mario Monti
Mario Monti Photograph: Tony Gentile/Reuters

Italy’s former prime minister, Mario Monti, predicts there will be no early elections and that a new centre-left government will be formed and return Italy to a policy of fiscal tightening.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s World at One programme, Monti said: “I do not believe there will be early elections. I’m convinced that the president of the republic, in his wisdom, will find a solution within the space of the current political majority of the centre left.”

He said there was no need for alarm. “In the financial markets the reactions are considerably cooler than many feared,” Monti said.

He claimed that in the last 18 months, Renzi’s government had relaxed fiscal policy a “bit too much” in the hope of winning the referendum.

Monti, who backed a no vote, added: “With the distraction of the referendum over, there may well be a refocussing of economic policy on its core business which is not that of creating a favourable consensus.”

Monti said the no vote was not the result of populist sentiment. “It would be inappropriate to see this result as another victory for populism. Prime minister Renzi himself had played the populist card quite strongly from the top, particularly against the European Union.”

Monti argued the voters demonstrated maturity in rejecting money being transferred by the state to the banks.

He also denied that the vote was a rejection of the euro. “Among the parties which recommended the no vote, there is the Five Star Movement and separately they say that if they were in majority government one day they would promote a referendum for Italy to go out of the euro. But I know so many people who voted no though being fervent pro-Europeans.”

Before the vote, Monti argued that there was no reason for Renzi to resign if he lost the referendum. But in his interview Monti said: “the negative outcome for him was so massive that I understand and respect his immediate [decision to] resign.”

Le Pen: Italian referendum is a signal to France

Marine Le Pen Front
Marine Le Pen Front Photograph: MESSYASZ/SIP/REX/Shutterstock

France’s far right leader Marine Le Pen has welcomed the Italy referendum and claims it boosts her chances of becoming France’s next president.

In a statement the Front National leader said the result was a signal to France. She claimed her key opponent in the presidential election François Fillon backed Renzi and his austerity policies

She said after Brexit and the Greek referendum, Italy was the latest country “to turn its backs on absurd European policies that are plunging the continent into misery.”

She added: “It is time that France chooses a leader who can be the leader of free Europe of nations, able to unite the energy of all these countries in rejecting a political project based on austerity, free-market and immigration.”

Updated

Matteo Renzi is preparing to formally submit his resignation before Italy’s president, writes Stephanie Kirchgaessner in her latest roundup from Rome.

Renzi conceded shortly after midnight on Monday and is expected to head to the presidential palace, the Quirinale, on Monday afternoon.

The anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Northern League quickly sought to capitalise on Renzi’s defeat and say they want snap elections, even before a planned reform of electoral laws is to go ahead.

Luigi Di Maio, one of the M5S’s rising stars, declared that the populist movement was ready to create the future government, while the xenophobic Northern League head, Matteo Salvini, said his fringe party – which has its roots in secessionism – ought to be considered a “serious alternative”. Salvini called the result – and the strong showing of the far right Austrian party in elections yesterday, which it ultimately lost – a clash of “all against one”.

Theres’ no need to panic or hyperventilate argues analyst Vincenzo Scarpetta. In a blogpost for the Open Europe thinktank he writes:

European politics is slightly more complex than dominos. What took place in Italy yesterday was neither a general election nor a referendum on the single currency. Either would likely be a different proposition. The ‘No’ camp was a very broad church. This makes me wary of describing the result simply as ‘Renzi being brought down by the populist wave’ – unless we want to describe Mario Monti or former Italian Constitutional Court President Valerio Onida (to mention but two examples) as populists for being against the reform.

There was certainly an anti-establishment (and anti-Renzi) element involved, but one should also bear in mind that – beyond the headlines and the slogans – the proposed constitutional changes did raise some genuine issues and proved more controversial than many seem to appreciate.

Undeniably, Renzi’s resignation opens a period of greater political fluidity during which the reform process in Italy will slow down – and that will be regarded as bad news in Brussels, Berlin, and other European capitals. However, as I already wrote last week, the framework is completely different from late 2011 and there are simply too many unknowns at this stage to predict – as some are doing – that the next Italian general election will certainly open the door to an anti-euro government in the Eurozone’s third-largest country.

Summary

Here’s a roundup of the latest on Italy’s referendum and its aftermath:

  • Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has said he will resign on Monday after voters dismissed his plans for constitutional reform in a crushing referendum that saw close to 60% of voters opt for “no”. He said: “My experience in government ends here … I did all I could to bring this to victory. If you fight for an idea, you cannot lose.”
  • Though Renzi had been predicted to lose, the margin – close to 20 percentage points – was much wider than expected. On a high turnout of 65.47%, 59.11% of voters chose no; 40.89% went for yes. Overseas voters bucked the trend, voting overwhelmingly (64.7%) for yes.
  • Renzi’s departure – and the prospect of politically uncertain months ahead – prompted the euro to initially fall to a 20-month low against the dollar. But after early losses it bounced back to its highest level since mid-November after traders realised there was little prospect of Italy leaving the single currency.
  • Italy might have to spend public money to rescue some of its banks, according to European Central Bank governing council member Ewald Nowotny. “The difference between Italy and other states such as Germany and Austria is that, until now, in Italy there has not been any significant state aid or state takeovers (of banks),” he said.
  • Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, admitted that the result was a “concern’. But finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, says Italy should continue with Renzi’s economic policies. “Italy has to continue the path that Prime Minister Renzi has taken economically and politically”, he said.
  • The referendum – which was on questions of constitutional reform not the euro or EU – was nonetheless seized upon by populist groups including the Five Star movement and the anti-immigration Northern League (Lega Nord), which called for snap elections.
  • Matteo Salvini, head of Italy’s far right Northern League party, has hailed the referendum result as Italy’s ‘liberation day’ from the Renzi government. He said it sent a message to Europe.
  • European commissioners and finance ministers put a brave face on the result. Pierre Moscovici, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, said he had “full confidence in Italian authorities to manage this situation”. French Finance Minister Michel Sapin, said: “The referendum wasn’t about Europe.”
  • Italy’s president Sergio Mattarella is thought unlikely to call fresh elections but is instead expected to appoint a caretaker prime minister. Finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan, culture minister Dario Franceschini and Senate president Pietro Grasso are the names most commonly touted.

More brave faces have been put on Italy referendum’s from the European establishment.

The Markets expected Renzi to be defeated in the referendum so priced in the outcome, according to Reuters. But they were surprised by the scale of the defeat hence the initial fall in the value of the euro.

Luigi Scazzieri, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, argues that the vote is unlikely to lead of more instability in Europe. Writing for the Guardian’s Opinion section he says:

A new government would likely be made up of the same political majority currently supporting Renzi, with the possible addition of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party. It would face the same challenges and would continue to act in much the same way, steering the country towards new elections in late 2017 or 2018 and pursuing the stony path of incremental economic reform. Indeed, while Renzi sought to portray the reforms as a make or break moment for Italy, the economic reforms of the past five years are not about to be undone.

A takeover by the populist Five Star Movement is unlikely either now or in the next election. The movement may run out of steam, as it increasingly becomes embroiled in political mishaps arising from its administration of Rome and Turin. Crucially, planned electoral reforms are likely to lead a form of proportional representation that will make it difficult for any single party to form a government. The continuation of coalition governments will exclude the Five Star Movement, which refuses to take part in them.

And any new Italian government is likely to behave in the same way as Renzi’s government did towards its European allies, seeking to bend fiscal rules in its favour and to press for a more expansive fiscal policy. It will also continue to demand solidarity from the EU with its efforts to deal with migrants and to rebuild the areas affected by recent earthquakes. Italy is unlikely to be the domino that leads to more instability in Europe.

Updated

Paul Mason, Guardian columnist and author of Postcapitalism, is buoyed by the referendum result in Italy and the presidential election in Austria.

Matteo Salvini, leader of Italy’s far-right Northern League, says the result – alongside the “hair’s breadth” defeat of far-right Freedom party candidate Norbert Hofer in Austria – sends a message to the EU.

Italy’s far-right Northern League: referendum sends warning to EU

ECB member Ewald Nowotny
ECB member Ewald Nowotny Photograph: Heinz-Peter Bader/REUTERS

Italy might have to spend public money to rescue some of its banks, including by taking stakes in them, according to European Central Bank governing council member Ewald Nowotny.

“The difference between Italy and other states such as Germany and Austria is that, until now, in Italy there has not been any significant state aid or state takeovers (of banks),” Reuters quoted him saying.

Nowotny, who heads Austria’s central bank, added: “It therefore cannot be ruled out that it will be necessary for the state to take stakes (in banks) in some way.”

Follow the latest market reaction here:

Updated

BuzzFeed’s Italian Europe editor Alberto Nardelli cautions against playing down the referendum result:

Germany admits result is a 'concern'

Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Frank-Walter Steinmeier Photograph: Yannis Kolesidis/EPA

Germany’s foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has admitted that the result of the Italian referendum is a “concern’.

He said that while the result of the Italian referendum on constitutional reform,was “not the end of the world,” it was also “not a positive development in the case of the general crisis in Europe.”

Steinmeier said that Germany was watching the developments “with concern.”

He added that Renzi’s government had been moving in the right direction, and he said Germany hoped the new Italian government would continue along the same path.

Updated

What happens now in Italy?

Our Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner has the answers:

Prime Minister Matto Renzi said at an emotional press conference after the vote that he would submit his resignation to Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, on Monday afternoon.

We can expect that the president will either accept his resignation or ask Renzi to stay, but the prime minister’s overwhelming loss, with about 60% of Italians rejecting the proposed changes, mean he is most likely leaving Palazzo Chigi. For now.

Then what?

With Renzi gone it will fall to Mattarella to cobble together a new government. He will call in all the leading parties to see if they can reach an agreement on a new government. The major players will be Renzi, who is still the leader, for now, of the ruling Democratic party; Silvio Berlusconi, representing Forza Italia; Beppe Grillo or one of his emissaries – young guns Luigi Di Maio or Alessandro Di Battista; and Matteo Salvini of the Northern League.

Hang on, won’t there be an election?

That’s what the Five Star Movement and the Northern League want. They will put considerable pressure on Mattarella to dissolve the current parliament and set a date for a snap vote.

If they appear to be in a hurry on this front, that’s because they are, and for good reason. One of the major reforms that the Renzi government passed before Sunday’s rout was an elaborate change to the country’s electoral laws. The change was designed for the winner of the next election, which everyone thought would take place in 2018, to automatically take a majority of seats in parliament. At the time the so-called Italicum law passed, it was fiercely opposed by the Five Star Movement, which compared it to a fascist power grab.

The changes in election rules were meant to work alongside the changes to the constitution that have now been rejected by Italian voters. The Democratic party has made it clear that it now wants to, and must, change the electoral law back to a proportional system.

Not surprisingly, the Five Star Movement sees a big opportunity for the party to win if elections are held right now, under the new electoral laws, and before they are changed back to a proportionate system. This is the brutal fight we are heading into. Mattarella will have the final say.

So will there be a snap election or not?

Stay tuned. Most analysts do not think it is a real possibility, but there are a lot of moving parts at the moment. If the main centrist and traditional political parties – the Democratic party and Forza Italia – can stay aligned, because both have an interest in changing the electoral law back to the way it was, they can likely stave off calls for a snap election.

In which case, who might be the next prime minister?

Some names have been floating around for weeks, given that Renzi was behind in the polls for a while and Sunday’s defeat was not really unexpected. The leading contender at the moment seems to be Pier Carlo Padoan, who currently serves as finance minister.

It’s a choice that might calm investor concerns, given that Padoan has long been seen as the lead figure in dealing with the aftermath of the economic crisis and continuing problems with Italy’s banking system. Dario Franceschini, the culture minister, is another name that has been in the mix, as well as economic development minister Carlo Calenda, also famous for being at the centre of an unlikely row over prosecco with Boris Johnson.

Federico Santi, an Italy analyst at Eurasia Group in London, said it was most likely that Renzi’s replacement would be a member of the PD, and one who would be deemed acceptable to critical factions within the party as well as centrist coalition partners such as Angelo Alfano, the centre-right interior minister.

But Renzi will also want to pick someone who does not necessarily harbour grand political ambitions themselves who might ultimately challenge him in the likely case that he wants to return to Palazzo Chigi in the future.

What will the caretaker government do and how long will it take to get off the ground?

Analysts predict that a caretaker government could be in place within a few weeks and that Renzi could remain at the helm of the government until a new government is secured with the backing of parliament and one other piece of impending business – passage of the 2017 budget – is completed.

How has Mattarella handled crises like this in the past?

We really don’t know. This will be the first time the president, who was elected in 2015, has been at the centre of such a big moment for the country. He has been tight-lipped so far and is supposed to be an independent actor, making decisions in the best interests of Italy.

Alessandra Mussolini, Italian Senator, Forza Italia MEP and the granddaughter of the dictator Benito Mussolini, says the Italian referendum result is ominous for German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

She spells out the messages by retweeting a provocative image of Europe’s fallen leaders posted by a right wing blogger.

Far right declares 'liberation day'

Matteo Salvini, head of Italy’s far right Northern League party, has hailed the referendum result as Italy’s Liberation Day from the government of Matteo Renzi. He is giving a press conference that is being streamed on Facebook.

Northern League press conference

Updated

Pierre Moscovici, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, is putting a brave face on the Italian referendum.

Speaking to reporters in Brussels he said he has “full confidence in Italian authorities to manage this situation”.

He added: “I’m very confident in the capacity of the eurozone to resist all kind of shocks.”

French Finance Minister Michel Sapin, took a similar move-along-nothing-to-see-here line. He insisted that the Italian referendum “is a question of internal politics. The referendum wasn’t about Europe.”

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Schäuble says Italy should stick to reforms

Germany’s hardline finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, says Italy should continue with Renzi’s economic policies.

“Italy has to continue the path that Prime Minister Renzi has taken economically and politically”, Reuters quoted Schäuble as saying.

The response prompted a Gif of a headshaking Schäuble:

Updated

The euro has rebounded from a 21-month low, clawing back almost all the ground it had lost overnight. Reuters has more:

The single currency tumbled as much as 1.4% in Asian trade to hit $1.0505, its weakest since March 2015, as investors worried about increased political uncertainty in the euro zone. But by 0855 GMT it had recovered almost all of those losses, trading down 0.1% on the day at $1.0650.

The result had been widely expected, though the size of the “No” vote, at with 59.1%, was more emphatic than had been forecast.


“Because the vote was largely expected, there really isn’t enthusiasm to push the move too far,” said Societe Generale macro strategist Kit Juckes. “From here, FX will take its cue from (bond) spreads, the equity market reaction, and wait for rating agencies to opine.”

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield shot up as much 13 basis points to above 2% soon after European bond markets opened, still below a 14-month high around 2.17% touched in late November. By 0855 GMT it was back below 2%, up 6 basis points on the day.

European Central Bank sources told Reuters last week that the bank was ready to step up purchases of Italian government bonds temporarily if the referendum result were to spur a sell-off, but traders said on Monday that they had seen no evidence of the ECB in the market so far.


The ECB holds its next policy meeting on Thursday.
“(The result) has marginally increased the likelihood of a crisis like in 2011 or something, but even a full-blown crisis ... is not in itself something that is a meaningful burden for the euro,” said Commerzbank’s head of currency strategy in Frankfurt, Ulrich Leuchtmann, referring to the spiralling of Italian borrowing costs five years ago.


“The only thing that would be a big burden (for the euro) is if the ECB reacts to it with more expansionary monetary policy, but ... Italian government bond spreads have reacted relatively benignly at the moment, and therefore it’s relatively unlikely that the ECB will do anything big.”


Some analysts said the euro was drawing some support from Sunday’s presidential election in Austria, where voters roundly rejected Norbert Hofer, the candidate vying to become the first freely elected far-right head of state in Europe since World War Two.

Our Business Live blog has the latest:

Lee Hardman, currency analyst as the Japanese finacial service company MUFG, says the relatively mild reaction on the markets reflects the irony that a no vote actually limits the risk of anti establishment parties gaining power in Italy.

He said:

“By rejecting the constitutional reforms, the Senate will retain it powers acting as a counter balance to the Chamber of Deputies.

“The system of checks and balances reduces the risk of an anti-establishment party like the Five Star Movement gaining power and being able to call a referendum on the euro.

“The current updated electoral law, which favours majorities in the Chamber of Deputies but is based on more proportional rules in the Senate, also makes it difficult for the Five Star Movement to govern by favouring political fragmentation.

“The award of a majority premium of seats to the most popular party in the Chamber of Deputies will be challenged in court, and the law is likely to be changed under a potential caretaker government to make it favour more the formation of coalitions rather than one party rule which would make it even more difficult for the Five Star Movement to govern.

“The difficulty the Five Star Movement faces in coming into power is one of the reasons why the negative euro reaction has been more modest than some have feared.”

Leading Ukippers are in a jubilant mood.

But Brexit-backing Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan predicts that Italy won’t be leaving the Euro.

Updated

Daniele Caprera, the UK spokesman for the Five Star Movement (M5S), has repeated his party’s opposition to Italy’s membership of the Euro.

He was asked on the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if the M5S would hold a referendum on Euro membership if it gained power.

He said: “The Euro is a problem for Italy right now and we would like to get people’s voice on that. The Euro is damaging the Italian economy and Euro isn’t good enough for Italy right now.”

He dismissed talk of a global populist wave sweeping governments power as a “media agenda”, adding “this is mostly an Italian problem”.

Caprera added: “There is already a crisis in the EU. The current European system doesn’t meet the European people’s needs. It is more of economic system. It doesn’t help socially any of the problems that there are in Europe with immigration, and financial problems. Europe right now is being used to bring in cheap labour, to lower everybody’s salary. It is not a very good system.”

Asked if M5S was on the brink of power, Capera said: “I think so. We are very credible. We want to change Italy. We want to participate in Europe but we need somebody who will listen. So far they have failed ... All they have been focused on is economics and austerity.”

Sandro Gozi, Italy’s secretary for European affairs, says the project of European unity has lots a key player following the resignation of Matteo Renzi.

Interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme Gozi was asked whether the no vote represented the beginning of Europe breaking apart as he warned before the vote.

He said: “The beginning of Europe’s disintegration started with Brexit and it is up to the other 27 governments to relaunch Europe. That was our policy, that was our goal as the Renzi government. It is clear that Europe now loses a major political actor to its relaunch.”

Gozi accepted the referendum result will lead to political instability in Italy, but not financial uncertainty.

He said he did not see any risk to financial stability, but added there were “big questions” now over the reform project in Italy.

Gozi said: “It is clear that it was reformers against us: conservative camps, which was a mixture of has beens, many former prime ministers and the populists from the extreme right of the Northern League and the Five Star Movement.

He added: “It is clear that politically we are in a period of uncertainty. And it clear that the coalition of ‘no’ is coalition of resistance to political change. This is the big question on which we have to work in next days and months.”

Our Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner warns against over interpreting the results from a binary choice. She points out that many of those who voted no are also bitterly opposed to the far right Northern League and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement.

Follow the jittery reaction in the markets on the Guardian’s business blog.

Has Renzi become the latest victim of the global rise in populism? Leading analysts differ. Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says the result is ominous for western democracies and shows the current difficulty of governing from the centre.

But FT editor, Lionel Barber, advices against generalising from the result pointing to the particular problems facing Italy.

Leave.EU, the pro-Brexit campaign funded by former Ukip donor Arron Banks, has welcomed the Italy referendum result and hopes it will lead to Italy leaving the Euro.

Updated

Francois Hollande
Francois Hollande Photograph: Jack Jabbour/Reuters

French president, François Hollande, says he respects the decision of Matteo Renzi to resign. In one of the first reactions from a fellow world leader, Hollande paid tribute to Renzi’s courage and dynamism.

Hollande, who last week announced he would not be contesting next year’s presidential race in France, said he shares Renzi’s desire to steer Europe towards jobs and growth.

In a statement from the Élysée Palace he said he hoped Italy could rebound from the current situation.

What eurozone crisis? asks Politico Europe as it urges its readers to stay calm. In its daily Brussels Playbook briefing it says all the talk of crisis is just talk ... for now:

It’s nearly impossible for a solvent country to leave the euro, and the number of savers with more than €100,000 in fragile banks is very small indeed. While the euro dipped (before rallying) to $1.05 when No emerged victorious, it borders on voodoo-economics to equate small currency movements with fundamental economic strength or weakness.

Reality check: Italians voted to reject change. Leaving the eurozone is the biggest change imaginable and wasn’t on the ballot. Renzi’s resignation is no earthquake: Italy will have its 65th government since 1945 — it’ll likely manage. Not that the future looks pretty: The country’s inability to reform and move forward has seen it grow at an average of just 0.6 percent each year since 1960.

Analysis from Stefano Stefanini: The former diplomat and current La Stampa columnist advises Playbook readers that while Europe is concerned about Italy this morning, Italy is anxious about the post-Renzi government, not the euro. In the medium term, Italy now joins France at the top of the list of 2017 electoral worries. That doesn’t leave Angela Merkel in the clear: she’ll be called upon to help save the EU by helping to save Italy’s political centre.

Updated

Italy, Austria and more: what we know so far

Italy

  • Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has said he will resign on Monday after voters dismissed his plans for constitutional reform in a crushing referendum that saw close to 60% of voters opt for “no”:

My experience in government ends here … I did all I could to bring this to victory. If you fight for an idea, you cannot lose.

  • Though Renzi had been predicted to lose, the margin – close to 20 percentage points – was much wider than expected. On a high turnout of 65.47%, 59.11% of voters chose no; 40.89% went for yes. Overseas voters bucked the trend, voting overwhelmingly (64.7%) for yes.
  • Renzi’s departure – and the prospect of politically uncertain months ahead – prompted the euro to fall to a 20-month low against the dollar.
Matteo Renzi announces his resignation as Italian prime minister
  • The referendum – which was on questions of constitutional reform not the euro or EU – was nonetheless seized upon by populist groups including the Five Star movement and the anti-immigration Northern League (Lega Nord), which called for snap elections. Matteo Salvini, leader of the Northern League, bracketed the result with Donald Trump’s win in the US, Vladimir Putin, and support for France’s far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
  • Italy’s president Sergio Mattarella is thought unlikely to call fresh elections but is instead expected to appoint a caretaker prime minister. Finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan, culture minister Dario Franceschini and Senate president Pietro Grasso are the names most commonly touted.

Austria

  • Far-right Freedom party candidate Norbert Hofer was beaten in the presidential election re-run by Green-turned-independent Alexander Van der Bellen.
  • Hofer conceded after early results showed Van der Bellen ahead on 53.3%.
  • The new president-elect said the result was a “signal of hope and change to all the capitals in Europe”; with Green politician Werner Kogler hailing it as a

small global turning of the tide in these uncertain, not to say hysterical and even stupid times.

  • Hofer called the intervention of former Ukip leader Nigel Farage – who had claimed the far-right candidate would call a Brexit-style referendum for Austria to leave the EU – a “crass misjudgment”:

It doesn’t fill me with joy when someone meddles from outside.

Van der Bellen: Austria vote a signal of hope

Meanwhile

  • French prime minister Manuel Valls is expected to announce on Monday that he is seeking the Socialist party candidacy for president, after François Hollande’s decision not to stand for another term. Valls’ office confirmed he will speak at 6.30pm (5.30pm GMT) – but it’s not clear whether he will resign as prime minister in order to campaign.
  • And to round off leader resignation news, New Zealand’s prime minister, John Key, also – unexpectedly – resigned on Monday.

Updated

Italy’s Sky TG24, citing pollsters Quorum, says younger voters opted overwhelmingly for no, by 81% to 19% among 18- to 34-year-olds.

For the 35-54 age group, 67% chose no, with 33% ticking yes.

It was only among the 55+ voters that a majority went for yes, by 53% to 47%.

Italy referendum: final tally

All votes – from within Italy and overseas ballots – have now been counted.

The final result is:

  • YES 40.89%
  • NO 59.11%

Turnout was 65.47%.

Updated

The office of French president Manuel Valls has issued a statement confirming he will make a statement at 6.30pm (5.30pm GMT) but giving no further details.

It’s widely expected that he will announce he is seeking the Socialist candidacy for next year’s presidential election – and could step down as PM to do so.

In other European leader news, French prime minister Manuel Valls is expected to announce a bid for the presidency today, media there are reporting.

The move has been anticipated since François Hollande’s announcement that he would not seek a second term as president.

It’s possible that Valls will resign as prime minister to focus on campaigning for the Socialist party’s primary vote at the end of January.

An announcement is expected at 6.30pm Monday, French media are saying.

Italy and Austria: what we know so far

Italy

  • Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has said he will resign on Monday after voters dismissed his plans for constitutional reform in a crushing referendum that saw close to 60% of voters opt for “no”:

My experience in government ends here … I did all I could to bring this to victory. If you fight for an idea, you cannot lose.

  • Renzi’s departure – and the prospect of politically uncertain months ahead – prompted the euro to fall to a 20-month low against the dollar.
  • The referendum on constitutional reform was seized upon by populist groups including the Five Star movement and the anti-immigration Northern League (Lega Nord), which called for snap elections. Matteo Salvini, leader of the Northern League, bracketed the result with Donald Trump’s win in the US, Vladimir Putin, and support for France’s far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen:

Austria

  • Far-right Freedom party candidate Norbert Hofer was beaten in the presidential election re-run by Green-turned-independent Alexander Van der Bellen.
  • Hofer conceded after early results showed Van der Bellen ahead on 53.3%.
  • The new president-elect said the result was a “signal of hope and change to all the capitals in Europe”; with Green politician Werner Kogler hailing it as a

small global turning of the tide in these uncertain, not to say hysterical and even stupid times.

  • Hofer called the intervention of former Ukip leader Nigel Farage – who had claimed the far-right candidate would call a Brexit-style referendum for Austria to leave the EU – a “crass misjudgment”:

It doesn’t fill me with joy when someone meddles from outside.

Van der Bellen: Austria vote a signal of hope

And in completely unrelated news

Updated

There are three options for what happens next for Italy’s government, AFP reports – one more likely than the others:

1: Renzi stays in power

Theoretically Matteo Renzi could win a vote of confidence in parliament, either with his current majority or with a new one including Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right Forza Italia.

But during his press conference, Renzi seemed to exclude this possibility. “My experience of government finishes here,” he said.

The crushing victory for the ‘no’ camp makes the return of Renzi a very distant possibility.

2: Technocratic government

This is the most likely scenario. President Sergio Mattarella can appoint a head of government with the support of the current majority or a new enlarged majority.

A number of names are already circulating, including finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan and senate leader Pietro Grasso.

The caretaker government would be tasked with passing the 2017 budget in parliament and modifying a new electoral law before elections take place.

He or she could also decide to continue until the end of the current parliamentary term in February 2018.

3: Immediate dissolution of parliament

This is highly unlikely. A recent electoral reform was designed to ensure the leading party has a parliamentary majority in the chamber of deputies, while the failure of the constitutional reform of the senate means it still maintains a proportional system, making the two chambers irreconcilable and a parliamentary majority almost impossible.

The populist Five Star movement, whose founder and leader Beppe Grillo has called for an election “within a week”, believes the electoral law could be modified in the senate if necessary to align it more closely with that of the chamber of deputies.

But most other political parties, who have a majority in parliament, disagree, precisely to avoid a victory of the populist party. They are instead advocating reform of the electoral law.

Updated

Who is Austria's new president?

Alexander Van der Bellen, the man who narrowly saw off a far-right challenge to become – albeit largely by default – the first Green head of state in western Europe, is a tall, austere 72-year-old retired economics professor who has often called himself “a child of refugees”.

A Green MP for 18 years before leaving parliament in 2012 to become a popular Vienna city councillor, Van der Bellen ran as an independent – although his campaign, which benefited from broad support particularly on the centre-left aimed at keeping out his nationalist rival – was backed financially by the Greens.

Having consistently scored more highly than the party, he resigned his membership on Monday, saying the president needed to be above party politics.

Viewed by many conservatives as too leftwing, and by more militant Greens as not radical enough, Van der Bellen spent the early part of his political career in the Social Democrats and even flirted briefly with Freemasonry.

A schoolmasterly, sometimes even hectoring, campaigner known as Sascha in reference to his Russian roots, he led the Greens from 1997 to 2008, turning the party into the country’s fourth biggest political force and stepping down only after elections in which it lost votes for the first time in a decade.

Alexander Van der Bellen celebrates with supporters in Vienna.
Alexander Van der Bellen celebrates with supporters in Vienna. Photograph: Vladimir Simicek/AFP/Getty Images

A heavy smoker – “I once quit for four months … but why should I torture myself at my age?” – and outspoken supporter of gay marriage, the divorced and recently remarried father of two collected more than 4,000 signatures from Austrian public figures and celebrities during his presidential campaign.

Van der Bellen’s father was born in Russia to a family descended from Dutch immigrants. His mother was born in Estonia, from where both fled when the Red Army invaded in 1940, moving first to Germany and eventually settling in Austria.

Aware of the need to appeal to voters a long way outside the party’s normal base, Van der Bellen, who lists 19th-century Russian literature and Donald Duck cartoons among his interests, has not shied away from espousing a few traditionalist traits.

His campaign videos have featured some unabashed yodelling, his speeches have often referred to the attachment he feels to his Tyrolean Heimat (homeland), and he has repeatedly stressed the social duties and obligation to integrate of Austria’s 90,000 newly arrived refugees.

Italian front pages

La Repubblica goes with: “No wins, Renzi leaves.”

Il Tempo probably needs no translation:

And neither does Il Manifesto:

Regional newspapers L’Alto Adige and Trentino have the referendum sweeping Renzi out:

One constituency that has overwhelmingly voted ‘yes’ in Italy’s referendum? Overseas voters.

With most of the overseas ballots now counted, yes leads no by 64.92% to 35.08%.

You can see a country-by-country breakdown here.

For more on why the referendum could be bad news for the Italian economy, specifically the banking sector, there’s a good explainer here courtesy of Wolf Richter on his blog, Wolf Street.

To summarise, the country’s banks have bad debts of €286bn sitting on their books. Somehow this situation needs to be dealt with, but the can has been kicked down the road continually in recent years.

One reason is that for the debts to be written off, it means a massive hit for junior bondholders, many of whom are ordinary Italians who were tempted into buying dud bank debt.

The problem is particularly acute for the third largest bank, Monte dei Paschi, which needs a €5bn recapitalisation. But thanks to the referendum, borrowing costs are rising, making it very expensive to get that capital into the bank, which has already gone through two failed rescues.

As Richter writes:

The already complex – and ultimately very costly – task of dealing with Italy’s zombie banks, after years of brushing toxic waste under the rug, has become vastly more complex in the absence of a government with a mandate.

Instability and uncertainty are likely to ricochet from Italy’s banking crisis to the eurozone and its teetering banks, and beyond.

“I lost and I say it loud and clear, even if I have a lump in my throat,” Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi said in a late-night press conference.

“Tomorrow afternoon I will call a cabinet meeting … I will then go to the Quirinale where I will tender my resignation to the president.”

Matteo Renzi announces his resignation as Italian prime minister

Italy referendum result: no wins with 59.26%

With all the votes counted within Italy (counting of overseas ballots is not yet complete, and those tend towards yes, so the percentage might shift a little, but won’t change the outcome), here’s how the result stands, on a turnout of 68.48%:

  • YES 40.74%
  • NO 59.26%

A thumping defeat for Renzi.

Updated

Nigel Farage’s dabbling in Austria’s election has earned him a rebuke from the party he had backed to win the presidency.

The former Ukip leader had claimed far-right candidate Norbert Hofer would call a Brexit-style referendum for Austria to leave the EU – something the candidate himself had explicitly ruled out:

It is not something I want. We need to build a stronger union.

Farage also told Fox News host Sean Hannity last week:

I would put my money on the Freedom party’s Mr Hofer winning that election.

Hofer lost the vote to former Greens leader turned independent Alexander Van der Bellen, and labelled Farage’s comments a “crass misjudgment”, adding:

It doesn’t fill me with joy when someone meddles from outside.

After the results became clear on Sunday night, Anton Mahdalik, a Freedom party member of Vienna city council, also criticised Farage’s referendum claim:

That didn’t help us, it hindered us.

One name in the frame as a potential successor to Matteo Renzi in Italy is Pier Carlo Padoan, currently the country’s finance minister.

Asked on Friday about his future plans, Padoan told Italy’s Sky TG24:

Of course, it will be up to the new government – if there will be a new one, which I don’t think will be the case – to decide its composition.

Pier Carlo Padoan: a safe pair of hands?
Pier Carlo Padoan: a safe pair of hands? Photograph: Andreas Solaro/AFP/Getty Images

The culture minister, Dario Franceschini, and Pietro Grasso – current Senate president, and briefly acting president of Italy until Sergio Mattarella’s swearing-in – have also been touted as possible caretaker leaders.

It will be up to Mattarella to appoint a new prime minister once Renzi formally submits his resignation on Monday.

Updated

What was Italy's referendum about?

It will be hard, as the dust settles, to escape the Brexit prism through which many across Europe will view the Italian vote.

But what was the referendum actually about? Stephanie Kirchgaessner explains:

The reforms, which would have affected a third of the Italian constitution, had already been approved by parliament but by a slim margin, thus requiring that they also be passed by referendum.

Under the current system, which was created under Italy’s 1948 constitution, there are two chambers of parliament with directly elected lawmakers, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Both chambers have equal power – it’s known as “perfect bicameralism” – and both must agree on legislation before it is passed. This means, put simply, that it can take a very long time for things to get done. For example, a law to give children born out of wedlock the same rights as children of married couples took nearly 1,300 days to be approved.

Under the proposed reforms, the Senate would have lost almost all its power – the number of senators would have been reduced from 315 to 100, and the remaining senators would no longer be elected directly. Instead, the 100 would have been made up of lawmakers selected by regional assemblies. Some mayors would also serve as senators.

That would have meant that most laws could be passed, including Italy’s budget, by the Chamber of Deputies without consulting the Senate. The Senate would only have had the power to weigh in on big issues such as other constitutional reforms and the ratification of EU treaties.

Some, but not all, constitutional experts believed the changes were essentially a power grab that would have made Renzi, or whoever was sitting in Palazzo Chigi, much more powerful. They argued that the changes would obliterate the delicate balance of power that was designed in 1948 by people who had witnessed the rise of fascism.

All of Renzi’s political opponents on the left and the right were aligned against the constitutional reforms, in large part because they wanted to force his resignation.

With 98% of votes tallied in Italy, it does look as if the ‘no’ vote is holding on to its near-20 percentage point lead, heading ‘yes’ by 59.61% to 40.39%.

Interestingly, as the Sky News tweet notes, ‘yes’ votes were in the majority among overseas voters – according to this official count by 65.2% to 34.7% so far – and in three Italian regions: Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna (by a whisker) and Tuscany.

Market reaction to the Italian referendum result has been muted by comparison with the ups and downs in the hours and days after the Brexit and Trump votes.

Shares are down across most Asian markets:

  • Nikkei in Japan down 0.4%
  • ASX/S&P200 down 0.86%
  • Hong Kong down 0.06%.

In futures trading, the FTSE100 is expected to dip 0.68% at the open while the Dow Jones average on Wall Street is set to fall 0.18%.

The euro has slipped to a 20-month low of 1.0575 against the US dollar.

However, most reaction seems to agree that the biggest issue is the future of Italy’s fragile banking system.

The referendum was meant to smooth this week’s intended refinancing of Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s third-largest bank, which needs to raise an extra €5bn in capital and sell off €28bn of bad loans. But the political uncertainty set off by the referendum result will make it more difficult to secure that funding and condemn Italy’s already moribund economy to more months of stagnation.

Minori Uchida, chief currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in Tokyo, told Reuters:

The ‘no’ vote was priced in to a certain extent in advance. So I do not expect a freefall in the euro in the near term.

But in the long run, this will delay progress in Italy’s efforts to get rid of banks’ bad debt and is likely to widen the yield spread of German [and Italian bonds].

Working out what the message voters wanted to send in Italy will not be straightforward, Stephanie Kirchgaessner reports from Rome:

It was clear from the high voter turnout – 68% of eligible voters cast ballots on Sunday – that Italians were indeed sending a message to the political establishment in Rome. But deciphering that message will not be easy, despite celebratory claims from Europe’s far right.

Italy is facing a number of big issues that were not technically on the ballot: a migration crisis in which the country feels abandoned by Europe; an unresolved banking crisis; steep unemployment and a debt load of 132% of GDP with no solution in sight.

The fact is that Renzi’s defeat was almost a foregone conclusion give the scale of the opposition he faced, and not just from Northern League leader Matteo Salvini and Beppe Grillo, the bombastic former comedian and head of the Five Star Movement. But even from within the Democratic party and leftwing voters who defied the prime minister for a whole host of reasons, including a former prime minister, Mario Monti.

While Salvini and M5S officials have touted the win as a major victory for their causes – they are not totally aligned but are vehemently opposed to the euro and the EU generally – it is clear that many Italians who voted no would not necessarily support either party in a general election.

Indeed, some were indifferent to Renzi’s fate but believed the rise of populism made proposed changes to the constitution especially dangerous.

Updated

While defeat for Renzi’s proposal was not unexpected in Italy, the size of the ‘no’ victory has exceeded most predictions.

As the Financial Times’ bureau chief in Rome notes:

The current tally has ‘yes’ on 40.28%; ‘no’ on 59.72%.

Monday’s Guardian front page leads on news from Italy and Renzi’s departure:

After a tumultuous night in Italy, Matteo Renzi will on Monday head to the Quirinal palace to submit his resignation to president Sergio Mattarella.

It is 14 months until the next elections are due, and it’s expected that Mattarella will attempt to pull together a caretaker prime minister – likely from from Renzi’s Democratic party – to serve until the February 2018 vote.

The populist Five Star Movement and the anti-immigrant Northern League want early elections – but have no power to make that happen.

Forza Italia, the right-wing party led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi (yes, him), is less keen on a snap poll, Buzzfeed’s Alberto Nardelli says:

We are closer to a final result in Italy and the no vote is holding steady at around 59%.

With 90.8% of precincts reporting:

  • YES 40.3%
  • NO 59.7%

Italy: what happens next?

Italy is not voting to leave the eurozone or the EU. But there could still be far-reaching implications. Renzi came into power promising to be a reformer, to drag Italy “out of the swamp” and build a strong centre-left majority, so his loss is a big blow to people who think his defeat is a rejection of his agenda.

It will also be seen, much like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, as a victory of populist forces over an establishment party, although the reality is more complicated. A new caretaker government will probably take over and new elections could be held as soon as next year.

One reason some observers think this vote is such a big deal is because it could open the door to the election of the Five Star Movement (M5S), a populist, anti-establishment party that has said in the past it wants to call a referendum on membership of the euro.

But even if the M5S took over Palazzo Chigi, the prime minister’s residence, it would not mean Italy abandoning the euro anytime soon. Doing that would require a constitutional amendment and another referendum. Euroscepticism is definitely on the rise in Italy, but there is no overwhelming political consensus against the single currency right now.

The victor in Austria’s presidential election, Alexander Van der Bellen, said his victory has sent “a red and white signal of hope to all the capitals of the European Union”, as he pledged to be a president for all Austrians, whether they had voted for him or against him.

Van der Bellen: Austria vote a signal of hope

On that note, Reuters has this latest on market reaction to the vote in Italy and news of Renzi’s imminent departure:

US equity index futures fell after a stinging defeat for Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, who said he would resign following a referendum over his proposals for constitutional reform.

Exit polls and early projections on Sunday showed Renzi lost the referendum by a wide margin.

“Buy bonds and sell stocks,” hedge fund investor Douglas Kass, who runs Seabreeze Partners Management Inc, said after the vote. “The technicals and fundamentals and political/geopolitical considerations are all souring.”

S&P 500 e-mini futures were down 0.3% shortly after electronic trading resumed on Sunday evening – paring some losses after initially falling 0.5% – signalling Wall Street could start the week on a shakier footing after stumbling last week for the first time since the 8 November US election.

Last week, the S&P 500 shed 1%. Major Wall Street indexes had previously hit a series of record highs over the past three weeks following Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, as investors rotated into sectors expected to benefit from campaign promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and bank deregulation.

The referendum result in Italy has prompted a drop for the euro – but not a Brexit-style lurch:

Italy: latest vote count

With 73.7% of precincts declared:

  • YES 40.6%
  • NO 59.4%

Updated

And Beppe Grillo, founder of Italy’s populist Five Star Movement, has called, via his blog, for an early election “as soon as possible”.

A snap election is by no means certain, of course.

Back to Italy, where Virginia Raggi, the mayor of Rome and a member of the Five Star Movement, has tweeted her approval of the referendum result:

Italians have won. Now we rebuild the country. Our revolution does not end, in Rome and in Italy.

While we’re on the subject of prime ministerial resignations, here’s another: John Key, prime minister of New Zealand, has just announced he will step down within a week.

You can catch up on that news here:

This is Claire Phipps picking up the live blog from Jon Henley, with continuing live coverage as Italy reels from the resignation of prime minister Matteo Renzi.

We’ll also have fallout from the result in Austria, where Alexander Van der Bellen has defeated far-right candidate Norbert Hofer for the presidency.

Here is what Stephanie Kirchgaessner, the Guardian’s Rome correspondent, said earlier about what was likely to happen next after the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, hands in his promised resignation on Monday:

It will fall to President Mattarella to try to cobble together a new government with the agreement of the country’s largest parties, including Silvio Berlusconi’s conservative Forza Italia. The young guns of the Five Star Movement, including Luigi di Maio, made clear last week that they would call for a swift election if the No camp was victorious.

But while some see the potential rise of either the M5S or the Northern League – which are both anti-EU – as a sign that Italy could try to pull out of the single market, some analysts have downplayed that possibility. An exit from the euro would be exceedingly complicated and – while Euroscepticism is clearly on the rise – there is no clear political consensus to leave the single currency.

Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London, said the most likely outcome would be for Renzi to resign and a new caretaker government to take over. The new government would then be expected to focus entirely on the passage of a new electoral law, which in turn would hamper the ability of either the M5S or the Northern League from winning a strong majority in the next elections.

Updated

A much-needed note of calm from the BBC’s Gabriel Gatehouse. This referendum defeat does not necessarily mean snap elections, still less Italy exiting the euro:

Renzi confirms he will resign

Following what looks set to be a heavy defeat in his referendum on constitutional reforms, Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi confirms – as he promised – that he will resign. “I have lost and I say it out loud,” Renzi told a news conference, adding that he would submit his resignation on Monday.

Updated

Renzi says he takes full responsibility for defeat

Addressing the nation live on television from the Palazzo Chigi, Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi concedes and says he “takes full responsibility” for the heavy referendum defeat.

Updated

Although, as this tweet notes, “I’m coming” is what Renzi tweeted when he took office. So perhaps we should not assume he will depart the scene immediately ...

Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, is expected to address the nation shortly after suffering what looks like a heavy defeat in the constitutional referendum which he called – and after which he promised to resign if he lost.

Renzi has just tweeted to thank his supporters “anyway”, and to confirm he will be speaking live from Palazzo Chigi in a few minutes. “Long live Italy! PS I’m coming,” he concludes.

The Northern League’s Matteo Salvini is clearly ecstatic with the No camp’s sweeping victory, writes Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Rome. The xenophobic Salvini clearly saw the victory as part of the right wing’s onward march:

But, explains Stephanie, even if it looks like Renzi was indeed trounced, that does not necessarily mean that every Italian who voted No was voting in favour of Salvini or his brother-in-arms, the M5S’s Beppe Grillo:

While some saw the plebiscite as a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, others – including those on the left and some within Renzi’s own party – saw the referendum as strictly a question on the topic at hand: whether or not to change the constitution.

Indeed, some – like a former communist the Guardian chatted with yesterday – voted No precisely because of concerns that rightwing forces were gaining traction. The reforms were seen by these opponents as weakening Italy’s democracy and potentially handing too much power to whoever inhabits the prime minister’s residence at Palazzo Chigi.

Updated

Having had to commiserate with Norbert Hofer, the losing far-right candidate in Austria’s presidential election, Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right Front National, cheers Matteo Salvini’s far-right Lega Nord – which backed the victorious No camp in Italy’s referendum:

The Italian interior ministry has a live results page, which you can visit here.

This is what it looked like almost exactly an hour after the polls closed:

The first projection based on the actual vote count in Italy’s constitutional referendum shows Matteo Renzi may have suffered an even heavier defeat, Reuters reports:

The projection by the Piepoli Institute/IPR for state broadcaster RAI estimated those voting ‘Yes’ to back the reform at 39-43%, compared with 57-61% for ‘No’. The projection pointed to an even wider defeat for Renzi than was suggested by three exit polls published immediately after polls closed.

Updated

Euro falls on forex markets following exit polls

My colleague Graeme Wearden has this on the reaction of Europe’s single currency to news of the Italian prime minister’s possible referendum defeat:

Europe’s single currency took an immediate dive on the foreign exchange markets when the referendum exit polls were released, but it’s not a full-blown crash. The euro has fallen by one cent against the US dollar, or almost 1%, to $1.0573.

Some economists have warned that a No victory would hamper efforts to recapitalise Italy’s banks, and undermine efforts to reform the country’s economy, which has been dogged by weak growth for the last 15 years.

The Guardian’s Stephanie Kirchgaessner has sent her initial analysis of the first exit polls in Italy’s constitutional reform referendum, which predict Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi is heading for defeat:

If the exit polls hold, the results will be read as a victory not only for the anti-establishment M5S, but for Matteo Salvini’s anti-immigrant Northern League. Voter turnout was especially strong in areas of Lombardy and Veneto that are considered strongholds of the Northern League, or Lega Nord, as it is known in Italy.

Renzi is expected to speak at midnight in Italy. Lorenzo Guerini, a top official from the prime minister’s PD party, declined to comment on the results in a brief statement in which he said the high voter turnout was a positive sign for the country’s democracy.

The possible win for the No camp could rattle European and global markets that had been rooting for a Renzi victory and will not want to see the country besieged by more economic and political uncertainty just as its economy was – slowly – improving.

In the days leading up to the vote, unnamed bankers expressed concerns in media reports that a no win could even destabilise plans to rescue Banca Monte dei Paschi of Siena.

Updated

And here’s what that looks like in graphic form, together with the turnout – 69.1%. Remember, these are very much provisional figures based on exit polls, which are often unreliable in Italy.

Projections of the result based on the actual vote count can now be expected at regular intervals of around 30 minutes, with the first due before midnight. They should become increasingly accurate as the night goes on.

Here is Reuters’ first take on the predicted heavy defeat for Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi in the referendum on constitutional reforms on which he has staked his political future:

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has suffered a heavy defeat in a referendum over his plan to reform the constitution, according to exit polls.

Renzi has said he would resign if Italians rejected his plan to reduce the role of the upper house Senate and claw back powers from regional authorities. He is due to address the nation at around midnight (2300 GMT).

An exit poll by the Piepoli Institute/IPR for state television station RAI, estimated those voting ‘Yes’ to back the reform at 42-46 percent, compared with 54-58 percent for ‘No’.

Two other polls - by Tecne’ for privately owned TV channel Mediaset, by EMG Acqua for La 7 - gave ‘No’ a similar lead of at least 10 points. Voting ended at 11 p.m.

First exit polls: victory for No campaign

Italy’s exit polls are notoriously unreliable, says Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Rome, but early indications are showing a win for No. Rai News estimates 58-54% of Italians favoured No, while 46-42% supported Yes. If the results hold, it will be a major defeat of Matteo Renzi and Italy’s centre-left Democratic party and a big win for his opponents in the Five Star Movement and the far-right Northern League.

Polls close in high-stakes Italy referendum

Polling stations have just closed in Italy, where voters are having their say in a referendum on constitutional reform backed by prime minister Matteo Renzi and most of his supporters in the Democratic party but opposed by his rivals on the left and right, including Beppe Grillo’s M5S, in large part because they want to force Renzi out.

Stephanie Kirchgaessner, the Guardian’s Rome correspondent, says:

With just minutes to go before the polls close, pundits in Italy are saying one thing is clear: the constitutional referendum was treated as a general election and showed Italians were highly motivated to make their voices heard. Now we have to wait to see what it is they’re telling us.

Updated

The Guardian’s foreign affairs analyst Simon Tisdall has this to say about what Alexander Van der Bellen’s victory in Austria’s presidential elections means for Europe in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s victory in the US:

The sigh of relief that followed Alexander Van der Bellen’s victory in Austria’s rerun presidential election on Sunday could be heard all over Europe. After the twin traumas of Trump and Brexit, centrist parties, social democrats and liberals of all stripes had feared another triumph for the advancing forces of nativist populism represented by Van der Bellen’s rival, the far-right Freedom party’s Norbert Hofer.

[But] comforting though Van der Bellen’s victory may be for European progressives, the fact remains that slightly more than 46% of Austrian voters backed Hofer’s candidacy. That figure reveals a nation that is sharply divided, and overall, more rightwing and intolerant in its outlook than previously.

You can read his full commentary here.

Updated

A quick reminder of what exactly Italians are supposed to be voting on today (as is the way with referendums, many will of course be voting on something else altogether), courtesy again of Stephanie Kirchgaessner:

A series of major changes to the Italian political system. These reforms, which affect a third of the Italian constitution, have already been approved by parliament but by a slim margin, thus requiring that they also be passed by referendum.

Under the current system, which was created under Italy’s 1948 constitution, there are two chambers of parliament with directly elected lawmakers, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Both have equal power and both must agree on legislation before it is passed. This means it can take a very long time for things to get done.

Under the proposed reforms, the Senate would lose almost all its power – the number of senators would be reduced from 315 to 100, and the remaining senators would no longer be elected directly. Instead, the 100 would be made up of lawmakers selected by regional assemblies. Some mayors would also serve as senators.

If the yes campaign wins, most laws could be passed, including Italy’s budget, by the Chamber of Deputies without consulting the Senate, arguably making the whole process of passing laws a lot easier. The Senate would only have the power to weigh in on big issues such as other constitutional reforms and the ratification of EU treaties.

Here’s the Guardian’s Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner’s latest take on what the high turnout in Italy’s constitutional referendum could mean ... In a word (or four), no one really knows:

Figures released by the interior ministry showed that about 55% of eligible voters had cast their ballots as of 7pm. However, the relatively high turnout did not clearly favour the centre-left government’s campaign or the opposition, led by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), because both sides have strongholds in high-voting regions.

Updated

Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi will address the nation at around midnight (2300 GMT), Reuters reports, an hour after polls close in the high-risk referendum on constitutional reform on which he has staked his premiership (he’s said he’ll resign if he loses.)

Exit polls are due to be released as soon as ballots close, but full results are not due until after 2am at the earliest. Some eager souls are already there:

Updated

In Italy, the Guardian’s southern Europe specialist John Hooper reckons that based on the high turnout figures, we should maybe not be dismissing prime minister Matteo Renzi’s chances of pulling off the second upset of the night too soon:

Updated

France's Hollande: a win for European unity and tolerance

Following politicians in neighbouring Germany, France’s Socialist president François Hollande has said Van der Bellen’s win over the far-right’s Hofer in Austria’s presidential election represents a vote for European unity and tolerance.

Hollande, who announced last week that he would not be seeking a second mandate in France’s presidential polls next year, said he “warmly congratulates Alexander Van der Bellen for the clear and uncontested result”, adding that the Austrian people had “made the choice for Europe, and openness.”

Marine Le Pen of France’s far-right Front National, who is widely expected to make it through to the run-off round of the presidential election in May, sent her congratulations to Hofer, saying he had fought courageously and predicting his Freedom party would win next year’s parliamentary election in Austria:

Updated

Alexander Van der Bellen has been holding a press conference in Vienna and the Guardian’s Philip Oltermann was there.

The newly elected head of state said he would be an “open-minded, liberal-minded, and above all a pro-European president”, adding that his triumph over Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom party sent a “message to the capitals of the EU that one can win elections with high European positions.”

The defeated Hofer said his loss was “really very painful ... but the voter is always right in a democracy.” He also criticised an intervention by Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, as having contributed to the party’s defeat.

Farage said on Fox News on Friday that Hofer would hold a referendum on Austria leaving the European Union.

Pointing out that an overwhelming majority of Austrians support EU membership, Hofer described the Ukip figurehead’s comments as “a crass misjudgement”, adding: “It doesn’t fill me with joy when someone meddles from outside.”

Alexander Van der Bellen: who is Austria's new president?

So who is the new Austrian president? Alexander Van der Bellen is a tall, austere 72-year-old retired economics professor, a Green MP for 18 years before leaving parliament in 2012 to become a popular Vienna city councillor.

Van der Bellen’s father was born in Russia to a family descended from Dutch immigrants. His mother was born in Estonia, from where both fled when the Red Army invaded in 1940, moving first to Germany and eventually settling in Austria.

Viewed by many conservatives as too leftwing, and by more militant Greens as not radical enough, Van der Bellen spent the early part of his political career in the Social Democrats.

He campaigned on an unashamedly pro-European platform, arguing that Austria’s economic growth depended on it and saying this evening:

From the beginning, I fought and argued for a pro-European Austria. I would think it a big mistake to promote the drifting apart of the EU.

Known as Sascha in reference to his Russian roots, Van der Bellen led the Greens from 1997 to 2008, turning the party into the country’s fourth biggest political force and stepping down only after elections in which it lost votes for the first time in a decade.

A heavy smoker – “I once quit for four months … but why should I torture myself at my age?” – and outspoken supporter of gay marriage, he is divorced and recently remarried. He lists American crime novels, 19th-century Russian literature and Donald Duck cartoons among his interests.

The Guardian’s Angela Giuffrida has been talking to voters in Italy’s constitutional reform referendum. She spoke first to Alessandra Castelli, who has lived in London for more than 10 years and may be one of the millions of Italian voters abroad to whom prime minister Matteo Renzi is looking to for salvation:

This is an occasion to really change Italy. Most of the people voting No are the ones wanting to keep the the current government out. They don’t care if it takes ages to approve a legislation, they just want Renzi out. But this is ridiculous , in a country where for 70 years we had 63 governments, and where at the G7 we always have to send a different prime minister.

Those who have to actually endure Italy’s stagnating economy, however, beg to differ. In Orvieto, 36-year-old chef and restaurant owner Valentina Santanicchio said:

It’s fine for those living a nice life in Berlin or London looking towards Italy and saying ‘it needs to change’ - we’re the ones who have to live through the misery here. It’s not that I don’t think we need a change in the constitution, but there are other priorities, the main one being jobs. Italy has so much potential, but it’s wasted. I’m nervous about the potential instability, but this is a government we didn’t elect.

Updated

Van der Bellen hails win for “freedom, equality, solidarity”

The victorious Austrian independent presidential candidate, Alexander Van der Bellen, said his unexpectedly comfortable projected win over the right-wing populist Norbert Hofer showed voters supported his message of “freedom, equality, solidarity”.

Van der Bellen, a former economics professor and left-leaning one-time leader of the Green party, said he would work to unite a country that was deeply split between the moderate liberals who voted for him and those who backed instead Hofer’s Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant Freedom Party.

Final results will not be available until more than 500,000 absentee ballots are counted on Monday, the interior ministry said, but with most ballots cast on Sunday now counted, Van der Bellen appears to have an unassailable 53.3% of the vote.

Back in Italy, Stephanie Kirchgaessner has an update on the turnout in the country’s crunch referendum on proposed constitutional reforms. The prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has promised to resign if he loses the plebiscite, prompting fears of possible political and eurozone uncertainty:

About 57% of Italian voters have cast their ballots in this referendum as of 7pm, a strong showing for a complicated question about the nation’s constitution. The high turnout numbers lend credence to the view that this vote has really touched a nerve in Italy, and is seen by some as a vote of confidence in prime minister Matteo Renzi.

It looked initially like turnout figures in the south were going to be far lower than northern and central Italy, but it now seems they have caught up. It’s hard, though, to make too many sweeping assumptions about this – while some Renzi strongholds will encourage the prime minister, other cities that back the far-right Northern League, which opposes the reforms, have also come out in full force.

Austrian chancellor congratulates new president

The Austrian federal chancellor, Social Democrat Christian Kern, has congratulated Van der Bellen for his victory over the far-right’s Norbert Hofer.

In a clear allusion to fears by mainstream politicians that a win for Hofer and his party’s anti-immigrant views would have harmed the country’s image abroad, Kern added that:

I am convinced that we will have a president with Van der Bellen who will represent Austria domestically and abroad in an excellent manner.

Martin Schulz, the German president of the European parliament, has congratulated Van der Bellen, saying he won Austria’s presidential election with “a clear pro-European message and campaign”, and describing the victory as:

Partial results showed Van der Bellen with 53.3% and his far-right, anti-immigrant Freedom Party rival Norbert Hofer on 46.7%.

The Conference of European Rabbis, which represent more than 700 leaders of mainstream synagogues across the continent, is delighted with the defeat of the far-right candidate in Austria’s presidential election.

Austria has just passed a difficult test. Let’s hope that the results in Austria will strengthen political forces in Europe which are committed to combat racism, antisemitism and xenophobia.

The Guardian published this article on Saturday on why the Jewish community was praying the Freedom party’s Norbert Hofer would fail to win the presidency.

Updated

Fresh from Vienna, here’s Philip Oltermann’s more considered take on the unexpected outcome of Austria’s presidential election:

Austria on Sunday decisively rejected the possibility of European Union getting its first far-right head of state, instead electing a strongly pro-European former leader of the Green party as its next president.

Alexander Van der Bellen, who ran as an independent, managing to increase his lead over Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer by a considerable margin from the original vote in May, which was annulled by the constitutional vote due to sloppy voting.

The rightwing populist candidate for the Austrian presidency conceded his defeat within less than half an hour of the first exit polls, writing on Facebook: “I congratulate Alexander Van der Bellen for his success and ask all Austrians to pull together and work together.

The 45-year-old said he was “endlessly sad” and “would have liked to look after Austria”.

Freedom Party secretary Herbert Kickl, who has acted as Hofer’s campaign manager, said: “The bottom line is it didn’t quite work out. In this case the establishment - which pitched in once again to block, to stonewall and to prevent renewal - has won.”

Werner Kogler, a delegate for the Green Party, described the result as a “small global turning of the tide in these uncertain, not to say hysterical and even stupid times”.

You can read Philip’s full report here.

Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has reacted to the news that the left-leaning, Green-backed candidate Alexander Van der Bellen is on course for an unexpectedly comfortable win over his far-right rival Norbert Hofer in the Austrian presidential elections:

Updated

Angela Giuffrida is on the ground for the Guardian in Orvieto, Italy, where she interviewed Steve Brenner, an American expat with dual citizenship who owns a hotel in Rome and voted No in the referendum because he is not convinced the reforms would actually create a more efficient, cheaper, and smaller government, as the Yes camp has said.

Italy, from what I understand, does not have a problem with the number of laws it passes. It has a problem with enforcing them. It has a problem with the judiciary and executive process. As for stability, the biggest problem for me in Italy is a lack of faith in government. That undermines everything and it’s what makes governments unstable.

Updated

Back to Italy, where voters are still casting their ballots in the country’s referendum on proposed constitutional reforms.

Polls close at 11pm local time (10pm GMT). Exit polls – not very reliable, particularly early on in the evening – will be announced on Italian television as soon as polls close, with the first projections based on actual votes counted starting to appear from around 11.30pm.

Those projections are then more or less every half hour, becoming steadily more accurate as the night wears on. If the result is clear-cut, the winner could be known by around midnight – if not, the result may come as late as 3am.

A reader, Heather Hampson, has asked about the Guardian’s use of the terms “far right” and “alt-right” – which some see as a term that sanitises the movement it describes – and how we distinguish the two.

As it happens, our style team published its guidance on just this subject, along with an explanation for it, last week. Essentially, the Guardian has not banned the use of “alt-right” because it exists as a term that is used in the world, particularly in the US, and “it is the media’s job to describe and reflect the world as it is.”

But it also believes the media should describe and reflect that world – including the “alt-right” – accurately. So this is the style team’s guidance:

alt-right: Use once, with a hyphen and in quotes, at first mention, followed by the brief but broad description of it being a far-right movement. Prefer far right (noun) or far-right (adjective) at any subsequent mention.

More specific descriptions can be used where relevant when mentioning individuals associated with the movement, but such descriptions should be evidence-based.

German politicians welcome defeat for Austria's far right

Alexander Van der Bellen’s provisional victory in Austria’s presidential election has been enthusiastically welcomed across the border in neighbouring Germany, which faces key elections of its own before next autumn.

Vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel of the centre-left Social Democrats told Bild newspaper:

A load has been taken off the mind of all of Europe. This is a clear victory for good sense against right-wing populism.

Manfred Weber, the influential head of the main centre-right group in the European parliament, tweeted:

and then added:

Ulrich Kelber, another Social Democrat, suggested that Donald Trump’s election may have been a turning point and “the liberal majority pushes back”, while the Germany Greens leader, Simone Peter, said it was a “good day for Austria and Europe. The right-wing rabble-rousers have to be stopped!”

Updated

In Italy, Stephanie Kirchgaessner has details of an embarrassing moment for prime minister Matteo Renzi as he cast his ballot in today’s referendum on constitutional reforms.

There’s pretty high level scrutiny for voters in Italy. You have to show identification and a voter registration card, which gets stamped once you have cast your ballot. Footage taken of prime minister Matteo Renzi shows he forgot to bring his ID, but poll workers let it go.

Norbert Hofer has posted on his Facebook page, thanking his supporters and congratulating Van der Bellen. Here’s a (rough) translation:

Dear friends,

I would like to thank you. You have given me such great support, and I am incredibly sad that it didn’t work out. I would have liked to watch over our Austria.

I congratulate Alexander Van der Bellen on his success and ask all Austrians to stick together and to work together. We are all, equally, Austrians, no matter how we voted at the ballot box.

Der Spiegel’s deputy foreign editor, Mathieu van Rohr, predicts the scale of left-wing candidate Alexander Van der Bellen’s win in Austria.

That’s quite a swing, and it is at least possible that part of it may be down to voters’ uncertainty following the shock results of the Brexit referendum vote and Trump’s US presidential victory.

The defeat of far-right candidate Norbert Hofer to the liberal, left-of-centre Alexander Van der Bellen in Austria’s presidential elections marks a setback for the Eurosceptic, anti-establishment cause in Europe.

After Britain’s shock vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s unexpected win in the US, insurgents across the continent, including Geert Wilders of the Dutch Freedom party and Marine Le Pen of France’s Front national, hailed upsets that, in Le Pen’s words, “made the impossible possible”.

Today’s Austrian vote was seen as the first in a strong of upcoming tests for Europe, with a victory for Hofer likely to further embolden the populists in potentially pivotal presidential and parliamentary elections due in the Netherlands, France and Germany over the course of 12 months.

For a more in-depth overview of what could still turn out to be a critical year for the future of the European project in its current form, you can have a look at my analysis of the issues facing the bloc, which was published yesterday.

Updated

Back to Italy now, after that unexpected early result from Austria.

Stephanie Kirchgaessner reports that a no vote there will be seen as a huge rebuke of Renzi and a big win for M5S, which has already said it would call for immediate elections if their side wins.

The conventional wisdom is that Italy is facing a populist backlash much like Brexit in the UK and Donald Trump’s victory in the US. This view is not wrong, but there are many voters who will vote against the reform who are not necessarily fans of Five Star-founder Beppe Grillo or the Northern League’s Matteo Salvini.

Renzi has a fair share of critics on the left, and many are simply unhappy with the proposed constitutional changes. But that does not mean they would support M5S or the far-right Northern League in a national election. A yes vote would mark a really stunning turnaround for Renzi, considering how much opposition he was up against heading into the race.

Updated

Far right concedes defeat in Austrian presidential election

The far-right Austrian presidential candidate Norbert Hofer’s campaign manager, Herbert Kickl, has conceded his candidate’s defeat to former Greens leader Alexander Van der Bellen, Reuters reports.

Kickl told the state broadcaster:

The bottom line is it didn’t quite work out. In this case the establishment - which pitched in once again to block, to stonewall and to prevent renewal - has won.

Updated

If confirmed, the margin of Van der Bellen’s forecast win over Hofer in Austria is a major surprise.

Polls in the run-up to the vote had the two candidates neck-and-neck, with several putting the far-right Freedom party’s Hofer ahead. But the first official results, released minutes ago, show the independent with 53.5% of the vote, with Hofer 46.4%.

Interior ministry officials have told the Associated Press that votes obviously continue to be counted and the percentages are therefore almost certain to vary, but the outcome is now unlikely to change.

Hofer’s campaign manager appears to confirm the early exit poll trend, telling state broadcaster ORF that Van der Bellen has won, Reuter’s reports.

Austrian state broadcaster: exit polls suggest win for Van der Bellen

Philip Oltermann in Vienna reports that early exit polls indicate Austria has voted in Green-backed candidate Alexander Van der Bellen as its next president, handing a painful defeat to rightwing populist Norbert Hofer.

According to public broadcaster ORF, Alexander Van der Bellen had gained 53.6% of the vote with 58% of voting districts counted – too strong a lead to be turned around for Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer, who had only gained 46.6% of the vote. The margin of error is around 1.2%, which accounts for the optimism now coming form the Van der Bellen camp.

With officials under clear instructions not to cut any corners to avoid another embarrassing recount, many experts have suggested a definitive result may not emerged until Monday, Tuesday, or possibly even Wednesday.

The Freedom Party candidate and his wife Verena Hofer cast their votes in his hometown of Pinkafeld in Burgenland, the easternmost and least populous region of Austria. “I am calm and confident”, he told the press outside the voting booth.

Van der Bellen and his wife Doris Schmidauer voted at around 11 am at a school in Vienna’s Mariahilf district, telling journalists that he did not expect a clear result until Monday.

Stephanie Kirchgaessner reports that there is already one alleged voting irregularity getting a good deal of attention in Italy today:

We can call it Pencilgate. The Tuscan singer PieTro Pelù claimed in a complaint that has circulated online that was given a pencil at the polls that was erasable. In comment on social media, some responded by saying that the pencil was indeed indelible on the section of the ballot where people actually vote, but not on normal paper.

In Austria, reports Philip Oltermann, polling booths have now closed and the first region has been counted.

Only anecdotal evidence so far, but the first two districts that were 50/50 in May now show a lead for Van der Bellen. The first projections will be without the capital, Vienna, so could well show Hofer in the lead. The first Vienna districts will be coming through at about 6pm local time.

In Italy, writes the Guardian’s Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner, there are still many hours to go before voters will know the outcome of today’s referendum.

Polls close at 11pm local time, but we’re not likely to know the results for a while later and exit polls are not considered to be especially reliable. Official voter turnout figures released at noon, which will be updated at 7pm, show relatively high turnout in northern and central Italy, and low turnout in the south. That may favour Renzi and the yes camp, but it’s difficult to draw too many conclusions. It looks like pro-Renzi Florence and the area around Bologna had a high turnout in the morning, but so did strongholds of the rightwing Northern League, which supports the no vote.

Updated

A brief guide, first, to who’s who and what’s what in the presidential election in Austria, where polls have just closed.

The candidates: Hofer, a 45-year old engineer who has risen through the ranks of his Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant Freedom party. A smooth talker with a ready smile, he changes his style, tone and the contents of his message depending on his audience. Van der Bellen is a former economics professor, running as an independent but backed by the Greens. He’s strongly supportive of the EU, is in favour of liberal migration policies, and often sounds the alarm against what he sees as Europe’s rightward drift

The issues: Essentially, Austria’s political direction. The president’s role islargely ceremonial, but a win for Hofer would signal a lurch to the right for the country and a symbolic blow to the European project. A victory for Van der Bellen would hearten pro-EU and anti-nationalist leaders.

Why now? The race was supposed to be won in May, when Van der Bellen defeated Hofer by less than a point, but the Freedom Party contested the result and on July 1 Austria’s constitutional Court ruled the elections had to be re-run. An earlier date in October was pushed back to today after problems with the envelopes on some postal ballots, which wouldn’t seal.

Who can vote and when will we know the results? About 6.4 million voters over 16 can vote. Early results issued by the interior ministry should be available about an hour after polls close, with as-good-as-final results out by late evening – although if the race is very close, postal ballots will count and a final result might not be known bfore Monday or even Tuesday.

Good afternoon and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of what could prove a pivotal day in European politics.

Polls are about to close in Austria, where voters are choosing a new president who, surveys predict, could be the first freely-elected far-right leader of a western European country since the second world war.

In Italy, meanwhile, the prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has staked his political future on a constitutional reform referendum that he looks set to lose, potentially opening a path to power for the anti-establishment, anti-euro Five Star Movement.

Norbert Hofer, whose far-right, anti-immigrant Freedom party was founded by a former SS officer, and Alexander Van der Bellen, the son of Estonian refugees who is backed by the Green party, are re-running their contest of last May.

Austria’s constitutional court overturned the result of that, which Van der Bellen won by the narrowest of margins, due to irregularities in the processing of the postal vote. Recent polls suggest this time Hofer may have the edge.

In Italy, voters are giving their verdict on a raft of changes to the political system that will – Renzi argues – streamline the decision-making process by reducing the power of the senate. It’s all quite complicated, but what matters is that the prime minister has said he will resign if he loses.

That raises the prospect – though by no means the certainty – of political and economic instability and early elections that Beppe Grillo’s unpredictable, populist M5S could win, a prospect that alarms many in Italy and beyond even if the chances of it actually forming a government are not great.

But while the actual consequences are far from clear, after the UK’s shock Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s upset win in the US presidential election, victory for Hofer and defeat for Renzi would at the very least mark two more big steps forward for the anti-establishment, nation-first parties challenging the political mainstream across Europe.

And with pivotal elections – and populist, Eurosceptic advances, perhaps triumphs – coming up next year in several EU member states including the Netherlands, France and Germany, there is a real chance that historians will look back on tonight’s events as the beginning of the end of the European project in its current form.

The Guardian’s Berlin bureau chief, Philip Oltermann, and Italy correspondent, Stephanie Kirchgaessner, are in Vienna and Rome and will be contributing their insights throughout what could well be a long evening.

Feel free to email or tweet me with comments and suggestions: jon.henley@theguardian.com or @jonhenley

Updated

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