The main result of the country’s parliamentary elections turns out to be an Italian paradox. It seems the country can’t have a stable government without populists – or with them.
Italians woke up to a new parliamentary setup that delivered no clear governing majority, but stunning victories for Luigi Di Maio’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement, which comes out as Italy’s biggest party with over 32 per cent of the vote, and Matteo Salvini’s populist Northern League, which is now the leading party of the biggest coalition - the centre-right – which boasts 38 per cent between its members. Matteo Renzi’s centre-left Democratic Party, with 19 per cent, is the evident loser, with its leader now seemingly certain to resign.
Final results show the country in deadlock, with the north dominated by the centre-right and the south delivering victory to the Five Star Movement, which describes itself as neither left nor right but 'post-ideological' despite promising better workers' rights and a universal basic income, and consequently winning support from many left-wing voters.
The results have seen the centre-right coalition shift to the right and Forza Italia lose impetus as its driving force. Eighty-one-year-old television tycoon Silvio Berlusconi, who was overwhelmed by scandals but passed himself off as the moderate, “Euro-friendly” leader of the coalition, has been overtaken by ally Matteo Salvini, of the eurosceptic, far-right side of the group, by a margin of four percentage points. The League now has about 18 per cent of the coalition, Forza Italia 14 per cent, and others five per cent.
As soon as he claimed victory, Mr Salvini explicitly attacked European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker; he also asserted the populist nature of the League, adding the “euro is a failed project destined to end”.
After a corruption scandal engulfed Umberto Bossi, the League’s founder, in 2013, Mr Salvini took on the xenophobic anti-Southern party, reduced to a vote share of four per cent, and transformed it into a nationalist European ally of major far-right parties in France, Germany and Austria: Front National, Alternative für Deutschland and Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs. The League’s declaration is bad news for the pro-EU establishment, but the nightmare scenario for Brussels is a power-sharing agreement between Mr Salvini and Mr Di Maio - a circumstance currently ruled out by Mr Salvini.
No matter what Mr Salvini says, the triumph of the Five Star Movement suggests no future government can afford to ignore Mr Di Maio and its party. The 31-year-old leader gained extraordinary support and become the youngest leader of the most voted-for populist party in Europe. Only Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is of the same age.
When Beppe Grillo launched the Movement, a referendum about the euro and saying “Vaffanculo” (“F*** off!”) to the establishment were the group’s leading issues. This makes it impossible for Mr Juncker to treat the Italian elections as a case of “Keep calm and carry on”. However, Mr Di Maio is leading the Movement’s transition from harshly eurosceptic to an apparently more institutional and pragmatic party. He has said he is open to talking to every other political group. This could be a chance for the Democratic Party, clear loser in this election, to maintain a role by negotiations. Mr Renzi has said this is not an option, but there is no consensus on the subject within his party.
What is certain is the traditional coalition between centre-left and centre-right is no more: the Democratic Party and Forza Italia don’t have numbers to guarantee a government. Maybe negotiations between the Five Star Movement and centre left would be the only option to avoid an unlikely super-populist alliance between Mr Salvini and Mr Di Maio.
At the end of the day, the head of state, Sergio Mattarella, is the key player of the next few weeks: the president is going to hold consultations with parties following the convening of the new Parliament on 23 March. Mr Mattarella is expected to take the country (and the populists) out of the impasse.
