Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) might be secure in the green jersey of points classification leader at the Tour de France, but three-time points champion Robbie McEwen has said the battle is "far from over".
The Australian sprinter, who won 12 stages of the Tour and took home the green jersey in 2002, 2004 and 2006, named race leader and non-sprinter Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) as the Italian's major rival for the jersey, which is traditionally the reserve of sprinters.
Stage 8 winner Milan, racing his first Tour, currently has 231 points to Pogačar's 183, while Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) lies in third on 173.
"It's very far from over," McEwen, currently commentating on the race for TNT Sports, told Cyclingnews on Friday.
"Jonathan Milan has the lead, but it's not secure because Tadej Pogačar is just going to keep winning stages, and if he doesn't win, then he's going to place highly. He's the real threat to Milan.
"So, Milan has to get into breaks and get intermediate sprints and then score well at every finish left that suits him. But it's a really interesting battle, of course, because Tadej can win on any hard stage."
With nine stages and eight intermediate sprints remaining on the Tour, a total of 450 points is still up for grabs, including 50 each at the finish of stages 15, 17 and 21. Meanwhile, 110 points are available across the race's four remaining summit finishes and Friday's mountain time trial.
Milan, then, is in the driving seat for the green jersey at his debut Tour de France, though Pogačar certainly has a shout. Van der Poel, meanwhile, might have run out of stages to mount a challenge from 58 points back.
"Mathieu van der Poel is getting in breaks and picking up points," McEwen said. "He'd be a lot more of a threat and a lot closer if he had only concentrated on himself. But he's been such a good teammate, leading out Jasper Philipsen and Kaden Groves, so he's been leaving some points on the table.
"I think Tadej is the biggest threat to Milan, so [Lidl-Trek] really have to make the most of every chance they get."
Earlier in the Tour, seven-time green jersey winner Peter Sagan gave his opinion on this year's battle for green, saying, "I've done it seven times, so he can do it once".
As well as battling for his own chances, wearing yellow twice, and winning stage 2, Van der Poel has worked for teammates during the Tour. He led out Jasper Philipsen and Kaden Groves and also raced in a 174km two-man break with teammate Jonas Rickaert on stage 9 – the second of four breakaways Van der Poel has raced in this July.
McEwen said that Van der Poel needs to target green from the start of the Tour to have a chance of winning the jersey in future.
"I don't see him as a big chance to win the green jersey in this Tour. That's only because of the way he's ridden the Tour selflessly for other teammates. He's been working for Groves, and he worked for Philipsen on the first day," McEwen said.
"If Mathieu were to come into the Tour and concentrate only on himself and focus on green and on intermediate sprints, then sure, he could win a green jersey.
"Even for a guy as good as Mathieu van der Poel, the green jersey requires full focus. You can't sacrifice yourself for somebody else on a day because you feel generous. He could win one, but it has to be all for Mathieu."
McEwen, who won 113 races during his 17-year pro career, also ran the rule over the top sprinters of this year's Tour de France.
Milan, who sprints with a power greater than perhaps any other current sprinter, might be in green currently, but McEwen named another racer as "100%" the best sprinter in the world.
"To be honest, Tim Merlier has been my top guy, my favourite sprinter," he said. "I think that, over the last couple of seasons, he's been the best sprinter in the peloton.
"When you see the number of races he wins and how he wins, and then, when necessary, he can just take himself to the front and he can launch himself from so far behind and go long-range. He's the best guy at the moment, and I like that he just pinpoints his chances and doesn't miss many. Just on the first day, he wasn't part of the sprint, but for every chance since then, he's been there.
"He's the top guy, and that could also be something in the end which stands in the way of Milan winning the green jersey – if he doesn't take the 50 points at the end of a flat stage because Merlier beats him. That could end up being the difference between Milan and Pogačar for green."
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