Scenario 1
A cross-party deal
How it could happen
Despite all the cynicism surrounding Theresa May’s offer to hold cross-party talks with Jeremy Corbyn and Labour, the two sides surprise everyone by coming together and backing a compromise plan that they think could command a majority in parliament. It would be based around building on May’s existing deal, adding a permanent customs union, extra protections around workers’ rights and legal guarantees making it harder for a future Tory leader to tear it up.
The problems
Such a compromise would cause huge anger among a large number of Tory MPs and precipitate further government resignations. Labour would also take heavy criticism from members and MPs if it were seen to facilitate Brexit. Expect both sides to find a way to allow the talks to run their course – and then blame the other side for the lack of progress.
Likelihood
Don’t hold your breath. ★ (Star ratings out of five)
Scenario 2
Binding votes agreed
How it could happen
Having failed to secure a cross-party deal, May asks Labour to sign up to a new process of votes in the House of Commons, designed to whittle down options until a majority of MPs backs one plan. Both the government and Labour agree to abide by whatever emerges as the favoured option, finally allowing Britain to leave and everyone to move on.
The problems
While May has suggested she wants to look at the idea of holding a series of binding Brexit votes, in practice the concept presents huge issues for both party leaders. Would the government really implement an option it has been against? Would such an unstable process really create the stable majority required to pass the legislation needed to implement Brexit? And would Labour survive a process that risks killing off a second referendum and delivering Brexit?
Likelihood
A potential crisis for both parties, which they are likely to avoid. ★★
Scenario 3
Short EU membership extension
How it could happen
May asks for an extension until the end of June, with the option of leaving earlier should a Brexit deal be passed by the Commons. It would mean Britain would leave the EU before the new European parliament sits for the first time – although the UK would have had to elect MEPs. Her request is accepted by weary EU leaders, who do not want the Brexit process to drag on for ever.
The problems
May has asked for this extension before and had it rejected. There is no sign that she would get a different answer a second time – and EU figures are already making it clear that the idea is a non-starter. Most Tories believe that May is making the request in the knowledge that she will be forced to accept a longer extension.
Likelihood
May could ask, but the EU already seems to have rejected her request. ★★
Scenario 4
Long EU membership extension, with a get-out clause
How it could happen
Tired of having to deal with the latest Brexit deadline but unwilling to embrace a disastrous no-deal outcome, the EU opts to kick the whole problem far down the road by handing May an extension of as much as a year, with the option of leaving earlier should a deal be agreed in parliament.
The problems
A long extension would cause huge anger on the Tory benches and plunge the party into a European election campaign certain to be full of rancour and disillusionment. More ministers could resign as a result of such a delay. Worst of all, it would allow the whole Brexit debate to rumble into next year.
Likelihood
The EU is likely to allow everyone to go away and think again. ★★★★
Scenario 5
No deal
How it could happen
EU unity finally breaks down after the united front it has shown since the Brexit referendum, meaning that no agreement can be reached on handing Britain an extension. France and other nations take a hard line, insisting that it is better to see Britain crash out than have Brexit chaos infect the EU’s future any longer. As a result, Britain leaves the EU with no deal on Friday.
The problems
There are some pro-Brexit ministers and former ministers who say the problems of a no-deal Brexit have been overblown, but the prevailing assumption, both at the top of the EU and in government, is that it would be a disaster for both sides and hit the UK’s economy hard. In reality, the downsides are great enough that both sides will avoid no deal.
Likelihood
France and others are talking tough, but no deal is bad for everyone. ★★
