Maybe "it's not the economy stupid" to paraphrase Bill Clinton. One of the most striking things about George Bush's slump in the approval ratings is that the US economy is firing on all cylinders.
The annual growth rate hit 4.8% in the first quarter, its fastest pace since 2003; the jobs figures for April show a drop in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, and the unemployment rate is a relatively benign 4.7%.
As the Wall Street Journal reports, company profits keep growing and the Dow Jones is poised to break its record reached during the hi-tech bubble in January 2000. If Mr Bush was minded to, he could tell Americans that they have never had it so good, as indeed could Tony Blair with British citizens.
Yet for most Americans the glass is very much half-empty.
They worry about high petrol prices, they don't like the way the war is going in Iraq and they are turned off by allegations of sleaze swirling around the Republican party in Washington.
It's a predicament that Al Gore, who lost to Mr Bush in the controversial 2000 presidential race, would be familiar with. Despite a healthy economy, Mr Gore - who might have another go for the White House - went down to defeat.
Now it's Mr Bush who must be feeling thoroughly exasperated to see his poll numbers plummet even as the economy soars.
