It's not all over, bar the shouting, but almost. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) completed the final major mountain stage of this year's Tour de France firmly in control of the overall classification, and barring major disaster on the last two days of racing, will reach the final finish line in Paris with a fourth overall victory securely in his grasp.
Pogačar did not deliver any last-minute fireworks as the rain and hail teemed down at La Plagne, his one attack halfway up the climb reducing the front group to the four top names on the GC, after which he seemed content to lead at a steady but not relentless pace ahead of Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike).
However, he did not receive even a major attack from arch-rival Vingegaard, with the Dane crossing the line just ahead of Pogačar for second and third places, respectively, behind stage winner Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers).
It was the first time since Lille that Vingegaard managed to regain any time, thanks to the bonus seconds, but more than being of any lasting significance, it was a reminder of how steadily the tide had flowed in favour of Pogačar throughout the race.
Pogačar was asked about what had happened to his policy of going for as many stages as possible - "I am paid to win," was his comment in the Pyrenees. But on a day when he did not seem as exuberantly energetic on the climbs, even compared to Thursday at the Col de la Loze, Pogačar said he was walking a line between defending the jersey and trying to regain contact with Arensman. In the end, the Dutchman just stayed out of reach.
"I was counting down the kilometres in the end," he said. "Arensman went super good, I was setting a pace I felt comfortable with and so that if somebody put in an attack, I could still accelerate.
"That's why I went at that pace. Arensman went stronger so chapeau to him. I was happy with how we rode today and yeah, the mountains are done."
Given it was the final mountain stage, much more had been expected from his rivals, but in the end Visma-Lease a Bike seemed content simply to accept the status quo. Pogačar remained ambitious, he said, and the proof was there to see with his one acceleration eight kilometres from the top.
However, rather than his expected outcome of it being a mano a mano with Vingegaard for the stage win, both Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNL) managed to stay with him as Pogačar laid down a steady, rather than a blazingly fast, pace. As a result, while Onley fell behind and Lipowitz struggled in the closing metres behind Vingegaard and Pogačar, Arensman just outlasted them.
"We tried to go for stage today because we felt strong, we were good as a team, and then in the end some riders thought they could sprint from bottom to top on a 19 kilometres climb and we just went all out, so nobody wanted to pull," Pogačar explained.
"I attacked and was thinking maybe me and Jonas could go to the top together. But then while I tried to set a rhythm, Arensman was stronger."
Fatigue is also setting in, Pogačar admitted, because "it's not been an easy Tour, people have been attacking me from left and right, from day one to the end.
"So I've just been focussed and motivated, my priority is the yellow jersey and today I was counting down the kilometres because I was going at my pace, hoping nobody attacked from behind. Sometimes, you just count down the kilometres, and that's how it is."
UAE Team Emirates-XRG manager Mauro Gianetti added: "Everybody is tired".
"It was close, and I think it was a hard fight between Tadej and Jonas. Jonas maybe thought if Tadej went hard from the bottom, then he could get past Arensman, and Tadej maybe thought he could do the same to Jonas. At the end of the day, they cancelled each other out and Arensman won, so congratulations to him.
"The aim was to go for the stage and to defend the yellow, but in the end it was too complicated. He was by himself and nobody was working with him, except Gall. Both Jonas and Tadej didn't have any teammates and that is a sign, too, that everybody is tired."
But as Gianetti pointed out, any disappointment is relative, given the main objective was the yellow jersey. The maillot jaune is all but certain to be Pogačar's come Paris, and with four stages already added to his palmares this year, there is little more for the Slovenian to demonstrate.
Pogačar himself did not seem overly enthusiastic at the idea that he might be able to gain a fifth stage in the revised finale in Paris on Sunday, with its triple ascent of the Montmartre climb.
"Really I just want to come to to Paris with yellow and if I have good legs, it's a good team for this circuit," he observed. "But I don't feel like super energized to think about Sunday and racing there right now, because it is a really hectic parcours. We'll see what happens."
"The important thing is we are getting closer and closer to Paris," Gianetti concluded. "Day by day, our confidence grows."
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