Ideal. New Zealand against France at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, a repeat of the 2007 quarter-final. Steve Hansen, Richie McCaw and most of the All Blacks management and a few of the senior players were there that night. As I said in a recent article, it was the hardest day in my rugby coaching career.
Words can’t do justice to the feeling but unfortunately it’s part of the life as a coach in high-profile professional sport; it’s real, it hurts, it rips you apart. It’s even harder on those who are close to you, my wife Raewyn and the kids in my case, because they have no control and can only hope the team get the right result.
Four years of minute planning with every stone turned. Four years of development of people who become family. Four years of waste because you have fallen at the pinnacle of the game, the World Cup. It’s not the intensive and often personal scrutiny by the media that hurts the most, it’s the people you love and the team of young men who have the ultimate responsibility that you bleed for. And it’s hell.
But there is a silver lining. What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. It’s like real life, you and the team learn from these difficult times and improve. You come to realise that there are some stones that you didn’t anticipate and they are then part of you in the future. You are always growing, never the finished product. The beauty of professional sport is that you are always evolving, always trying to get better. And France beating the All Blacks in the 2007 World Cup was a major catalyst in our evolution.
So the All Blacks have more stones in the preparation bag and are better equipped but they will fully understand that there are no guarantees. The French revel in the challenge of playing the All Blacks in World Cups. They have nothing to lose, little or no expectation, the underdog, ideal for them to play their best. Form and momentum count for nothing and the All Blacks will be fully aware that France will bring their A game to Cardiff on Saturday evening.
France are big, strong and abrasive, and will be at a fever pitch mentally. They are playing the team they want to face. I have little doubt that this scenario was in the grand plan of Philippe Saint‑André and his men, but the All Blacks will have been looking forward to this game. It has been their focus for a long time and they will be ready, relieved it’s finally arrived.
It’s difficult to judge the French because of their indifference against Ireland, but the All Blacks will have noted the lineout deficiencies and suspect defence down Frédéric Michalak’s channel. On the other hand France will have spotted New Zealand turning ball over at the tackle area and that their attack structure is dependent on only three players, perhaps four, to recycle at the breakdown, struggling to place the ball correctly. Also that the New Zealand scrum is not showing its usual efficiency.
Saturday’s first game sees Wales playing South Africa at Twickenham. Have Wales run their race after huge contests against England, Australia and Fiji in that pool of death left them depleted by injury? They have shown unbelievable spirit and resilience and will be match-hardened. The Springboks, apart from losing Jean de Villiers, have been relatively injury free and have recovered some pride after the humiliating loss to Japan.
It will probably go to the wire. Both teams have very efficient lineouts and should have parity at scrum. Wales’s defence is watertight but they struggle to score tries through overplaying the power game and questionable decision-making. South Africa are suspect in defence, particularly the tight five but if they use the ball well they have real potency behind. It may well come down to discipline and the battle of the boot, Handré Pollard against Dan Biggar. Wales cannot afford to give away the dumb penalties that contributed to the loss against Australia.
Sunday’s first match, between Ireland against Argentina is not a forgone conclusion. Ireland have lost Paul O’Connell plus Peter O’Mahony to injury, while Sean O’Brien is suspended and Jonathan Sexton has been nursing a groin strain. They played with intelligence against France and controlled field position, particularly in the second half when the replacements Iain Henderson and Ian Madigan stepped up.
But I believe the Pumas will have much more fire in the belly than the French. Argentina have been under the radar so far. They have a changed rugby mentality, adding some impressive attacking flair and the ability to score tries to their renowned scrum and driving lineout platform. They have a quality goalkicker in Nicolás Sánchez and the match could go to the wire.
The final match between Australia playing Scotland seems the most clearcut. I see the Scots are talking themselves up. Why do players do that? Probably trying convince themselves. I don’t think Vern Cotter will be happy. In contrast, the Wallabies are saying nothing again, letting their rugby do the talking. They have been the most impressive team to date, but like Wales had to get to a high standard early to survive their pool.
It will be interesting who the rugby world is talking about after the first round of sudden death. My head says it could be southern hemisphere semi‑finals and my heart hopes that does not happen.
