The closest, and most exciting, Championship promotion race in almost a decade is entering its final straight with four teams tied at the top and only five points separating first place from seventh. Given that things have not been this tight at this stage of a domestic second tier campaign since 2006-07, the division has a plausible claim to be the most intriguing in Europe with only Turkey’s Super-Lig coming remotely close. Tellingly, Derby’s Steve McClaren believes the campaign “really starts with 10 games to go.” This weekend marks the beginning of that gripping final chapter with no one quite sure whether unbridled euphoria or crushing disappointment beckons. As the finishing line suddenly looms into view, who will hold their nerve and what factors will decide the final table?
1) Current form
Revitalised by the hitherto little known, 33-year-old, Alex Neil’s arrival as manager from Hamilton Academical in January, Norwich are the division’s hottest team with seven wins in their last eight games. After six victories in the last eight outings, Slavisa Jokanovic’s Watford rank second in the form stakes but, apparently recovered from a recent five game wobble, Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth hold an ace card in the shape of an enviable, potentially significant, +35 goal difference.
If Mark Warburton’s Brentford can be a little fickle, Mick McCarthy’s low budget Ipswich are stumbling after winning only one of their past five matches while Aitor Karanka’s Middlesbrough also seem to have hit a wall, losing three of their last five. With Derby winless in three games, McClaren, too, has cause for anxiety. If it’s too late for Nottingham Forest to gatecrash the automatic promotion party don’t discount a side boasting six triumphs out of eight as play off dark horses. Wolves, too, remain in contention.
How they rate
1 Norwich
2 Watford
3 Bournemouth
4 Brentford
5 Middlesbrough
6 Derby
7 Ipswich
2) Squad depth
Karanka has assembled an enviably strong Middlesbrough first team pool featuring two players competing for every position. With Grant Leadbitter excelling in midfield Boro can be extremely convincing but Karanka’s critics wonder whether he is over fond of rotation – and loans.
McClaren has retained the gifted young Derby squad which lost last May’s play off final but, just lately, they have missed their key striker, Chris Martin. Now though Martin is fast approaching a return from injury as is George Thorne, an influential midfielder much missed during a seventh month absence.
In contrast Norwich’ could struggle to compensate for the loss of the free scoring Lewis Grabb, currently sidelined following ankle surgery.Perhaps crucially, Watford’ possess an enviable range of attacking options but Bournemouth, Brentford and Ipswich have been punching above their supposed weights for too many months to be written off.
How they rate:
1 Middlesbrough
2 Derby
3 Watford
4 Norwich
5 Bournemnouth
6 Ipswich
7 Brentford
3) Remaining fixtures
As befits arguably the world’s most exciting eague right now there really are no easy Championship games but, on paper, Bournemouth and Brentford, appear to have slightly kinder run-ins than the rest. If Norwich’s fixture list also seems quite inviting Derby and Middlesbrough face particularly demanding denouements. McClaren’s men must tackle four potentially season defining games against top eight sides in the next three weeks but their task doesn’t look quite as uphill as that facing Boro who meet six of the top eight between now and May.
How they rate:
1 Bournemouth
2 Brentford
3 Norwich
4 Watford
5 Ipswich
6 Derby
7 Middlesbrough
4) Experience
Considering he’s won the Dutch League and the English League Cup, reached the Uefa Cup final and managed England, McClaren – recently re-joined by his talented old Middlesbrough sidekick Steve Round – should have a head start. Karanka boasts the peerless experience of having assisted José Mourinho at Real Madrid but McCarthy possesses the invaluable “been there done it badge” of actually winning two promotions to the Premier League.
All three though could easily be trumped by Slavisa Jokanovic, not only Watford’s fourth head coach of an extraordinary campaign but the owner of a deceptively uninspiring CV featuring a stint in charge of Thailand’s Muangthong United – although they did go an entire season unbeaten en route to the Thai title.
Brentford’s Mark Warburton, a former City financier, would relish sticking two fingers up – metaphorically of course – at a board which has decreed he will be replaced with imported continental intellect willing to conform to a “mathematical modelling” system this summer. Might Warburton cap last season’s elevation from League One with a second promotion? If no one should discount Howe, deservedly hyped as one of England’s brightest young coaches, the even more youthful Neil is fast emerging as a similarly hot property.
How they rate:
1 Derby
2 Ipswich
3 Bournemouth
4 Middlesbrough
5 Brentford
6 Watford
7 Norwich
Final verdict
In a slightly surreal contest where certainty remains a stranger and the yearned for promised land is almost within touching distance, no one is quite sure who might choke. “The Championship’s crazy, there’s so many strange results,” says Jokanovic. “But now it’s about who makes the fewest mistakes and has the right mentality.” McCarthy agrees. “It’s a bonkers league,” he says. “It’s going to the last game, the last minute.”
Final top seven:
1 Middlesbrough
2 Derby
3 Norwich
4 Bournemouth
5 Watford
6 Brentford
7 Ipswich
