Indian markets showed signs of life on Wednesday with the IT index surging over 3%, midcaps recovering, and broader indices ticking higher. But seasoned market expert Nischal Maheshwari is urging investors to read the situation carefully before jumping in.
IT rally? Don't get excited yet
The sharp bounce in IT stocks is not what it looks like, according to Maheshwari. He calls it a classic dead cat bounce, a technical rebound after an oversold fall, driven by traders rotating into beaten-down stocks for a quick trade rather than any genuine improvement in fundamentals.
"There is no clarity on fundamentals for IT to become a positional buy," he says flatly. For long-term investors, this is not the entry point.
Midcaps and power stocks finding a floor
The recovery in midcap indices, with the Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 both up nearly a percent, reflects selective buying at lower levels. The power sector, which saw sharp profit-taking after muted results from a key transformer company, is now attracting buyers at cheaper valuations. Maheshwari sees this as a natural consolidation rather than a fresh structural move.
Green energy is the real long-term story
On electrification and renewables, Maheshwari is bullish, but measured. India is now adding 40 to 50 gigawatts of solar power annually, with a government target of 500 gigawatts by 2030. This, he says, is a massive structural opportunity that will only accelerate with every energy shock the country faces.
Electric vehicles, however, are a different story. EV penetration remains below 5% of total vehicle sales. Infrastructure gaps, high price differentials, and range anxiety continue to hold back adoption, particularly in the passenger vehicle segment. Two-wheelers have seen some traction, but Maheshwari believes the broader EV revolution is still some way off.
Private banks: Fundamentally strong, FII selling the problem
Private sector banks remain fundamentally attractive, Maheshwari affirms. The problem is relentless foreign institutional investor selling that keeps pushing prices down. Until FII outflows stabilise, these stocks are likely to stay rangebound. Investors with patience, though, are sitting on a solid opportunity.
The full impact of the war is still to come
Here is the warning investors need to hear. The current quarter's earnings only captured 15 days of war-related disruption. The next two quarters will bear the full brunt; higher input costs, inflationary pressure, and squeezed consumer purchasing power.
With crude oil around $110 a barrel, Maheshwari expects petrol and diesel prices to rise further as the government is unlikely to absorb the full burden indefinitely. The knock-on effect will be felt across the economy. He pegs India's GDP growth for the current year at a more modest 6 to 6.5%.
Export stocks set to shine
A depreciating rupee is a tailwind that exporters will gladly take. Maheshwari is positive on export-oriented companies, which become more price-competitive internationally as the rupee weakens. With government incentives adding further support, FY27 looks promising for this segment.
Ferrous metals still have room to run
While aluminium may have peaked, Maheshwari sees more upside in ferrous metals, steel in particular. Global infrastructure creation, including the data centre boom, continues to support demand. Stocks in this space look attractive at current levels.
Defence remains a safe harbour
Despite some correction, defence stocks continue to hold strong order books and offer clear earnings visibility. Maheshwari sees the sector in good health with little cause for concern.
The bottom line : Be selective, avoid chasing bounces, and focus on sectors with real earnings support.
